MLB Bets 2026-09-08

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	124W–86L–0P	59%	-3.17 u	Last 14 days • 210 settled
Grade A	12W–7L–0P	63%	+1.08 u
Grade B	112W–79L–0P	59%	-4.24 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3853W–2428L–8P	61%	-269.99 u	All-time • 6289 settled
Grade A	279W–220L–0P	56%	-12.34 u
Grade B	3572W–2199L–8P	62%	-251.21 u

211 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Freddie Freeman	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Chourio	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Jordan Walker	1.5	-109	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Matthew Lugo	1.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter H+R+RBI	Yandy Diaz	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Agustín Ramírez	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Alika Williams	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Andrew Knizner	0.5	-413	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	-308	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Angel Martinez	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Blaze Alexander	0.5	-309	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-307	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-471	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-329	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Brett Callahan	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Brian Navarreto	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams	0.5	-406	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-303	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-502	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Christian Koss	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Christian Moore	0.5	-221	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Colt Keith	0.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Connor Wong	0.5	-398	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-325	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Denzer Guzman	0.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Deyvison De Los Santos	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Dustin Harris	0.5	-348	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-249	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Eduardo Valencia	0.5	-346	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Eli White	0.5	-487	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Elias Diaz	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-250	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Enrique Hernandez	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Esteury Ruiz	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Freddy Fermin	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	George Lombard Jr.	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Hao-Yu Lee	0.5	-314	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-282	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-274	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jacob Gonzalez	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jared Serna	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-347	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Javier Sanoja	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jeremy Pena	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jonah Cox	0.5	-243	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jorbit Vivas	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jose Siri	0.5	-286	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Joshua Baez	0.5	-380	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Kyle Isbel	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Lazaro Montes	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-429	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-452	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-381	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Miguel Amaya	0.5	-428	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Miguel Rojas	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Moises Ballesteros	0.5	-336	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Myles Straw	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Osleivis Basabe	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-478	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-340	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Pedro Ramirez	0.5	-403	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Ryan McMahon	0.5	-259	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Samuel Basallo	0.5	-332	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Shay Whitcomb	0.5	-311	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Spencer Jones	0.5	-211	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Taylor Trammell	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-238	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Tim Tawa	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-308	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Trevor Story	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Troy Johnston	0.5	-366	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Vaughn Grissom	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-421	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Batter Walks	Wilyer Abreu	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Brandon Young	3.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Jack Perkins	3.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Landen Roupp	5.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	K Prop	Reid Detmers	5.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Corbin Burnes	1.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Landen Roupp	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Nick Lodolo	2.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Patrick Sandoval	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Manaea	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Dean Kremer	5.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Hits Allow	Hayden Wesneski	5.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	AJ Smith-Shawver	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Brandon Young	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Casey Mize	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	2.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Jose Soriano	1.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Landen Roupp	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Nick Lodolo	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Sean Burke	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Tanner Bibee	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Pitcher Walks	Tarik Skubal	1.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	Total	Over	7.0	-122	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-08	YRFI	YRFI	-	122	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	635	55%	-27.88u	37	54%	-2.32u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	543	57%	+5.12u	29	59%	-0.04u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	708	56%	-37.65u	75	52%	-9.15u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	483	62%	+2.61u	57	74%	+9.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 635, 14d N 37	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 543, 14d N 29	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 27/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 18 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 279 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 3 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 5 actionable / 221 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 221 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 851 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 818 pitcher(s), 3639 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 10 team(s), 90 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 421 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1227 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 90 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 8 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, Toronto Blue Jays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 365 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 27 line(s)/14 game(s); Earned Runs 28 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 135, bovada_direct 3, fanatics 3, betrivers 1, fanduel 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3200 market side(s) checked \| 3200 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 221 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 3 above probability threshold \| 8 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 722 \| batter hand splits 140 \| pitcher HR splits 48 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 260 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 1195 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+100	-120	1.5 (-205)	-1.5 (+168)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-171)	-1.5 (+141)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+103	-124	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-181)	-1.5 (+149)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+266	-339	1.5 (+128)	-1.5 (-155)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-103	-117	-1.5 (+164)	1.5 (-201)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	-120	-101	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+178	-219	1.5 (-121)	-1.5 (+100)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+120	-145	1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-186	+153	-1.5 (-114)	1.5 (-105)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+157	-192	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-183)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+259	-329	1.5 (+124)	-1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 58%Entities: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, bullpen usage, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 57%Entities: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Hayden Wesneski workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Hayden Wesneski

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 56%Entities: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Ranked Signals

7 Grade A | 118 Grade B | 1033 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 7 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: top-six opp K% 18.6%, full-lineup opp K% 19.4%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@PHI	6:41 PM	3.5	6.0	-122	DK Over 3.5 -122 \| exact	72.5%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -142, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch	K Prop	Reid Detmers Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	5.5	7.6	-142	BetRivers Over 5.5 -132 \| best price	38.7%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade…	K Prop	Brandon Young Over	GUA@ORI	6:36 PM	3.5	4.8	-138	FanDuel Over 3.5 -130 \| best price	37.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.071/AVG 0.429 over 8 PA, pitch-type…	K Prop	Jack Perkins Over	JAY@ATH	9:41 PM	3.5	4.7	-165	FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 \| best price	35.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Mike Trout Over	ANG@SOX	6:46 PM	0.5	0.8	-117	DK Over 0.5 -117 \| exact	68.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -151	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Chourio Over	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	1.5	2.8	-151	DK Over 1.5 -151 \| exact	86.0%	✓✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage	F5 Total	Over 3.5	CUB@BRE	7:41 PM	3.5	-	-115	FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 \| exact	+15.2%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (23 play(s))

Batter Total Bases - Bryan Torres Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -132Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 -152Market line: majority 4 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Over 3.5 -152 | exactOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4 / avg N/A

Pitcher Earned Runs - Quinn Mathews Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Tommy Edman Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter H+R+RBI - Nolan Gorman Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter H+R+RBI - Yordan Alvarez Over

Projection: 2.6Displayed: Over 2.5 +114Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.7Recommended: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.7

Batter Total Bases - CJ Abrams Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Daylen Lile Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 0.5 +140Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Christian Yelich Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Samuel Basallo Over

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Over 0.5 -165Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tim Tawa Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Matthew Lugo Under

Projection: 0.3Displayed: Under 0.5 -240Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Leonardo Bernal Over

Projection: 1.8Displayed: Over 1.5 +150Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Travis Bazzana Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.7

Batter Total Bases - Liam Hicks Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Josh Bell Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 1.5 +147Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.7Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.7

Batter Total Bases - Tristan Peters Over

Projection: 1.3Displayed: Over 0.5 -150Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Sam Antonacci Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Luis Campusano Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Dylan Crews Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jared Young Over

Projection: 1.2Displayed: Over 0.5 -200Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Lawrence Butler Over

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Over 0.5 +150Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-122) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	3.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prop Picks 09/08/2026 | Citizens Bank Park Command Test Tier 3
Early damage or a weather interruption can shorten the starter's opportunity before the target is reached. The official prediction is Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 Pitcher Strikeou
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/8 & 9/9 & 9/10 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski @ PHI – Command has propelled Wesneski thus far, and it could continue here.
Phillies building up Tanner Banks to multi-inning role as he nears return from injured list Tier 3
3, 2025, for the Padres before undergoing arm surgery that sidelined him for most of 2026. Andrew Painter (3-8, 5.55 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday’s series opener against Astr
Astros vs. Phillies prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for September 8 - NBC Sports Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA) takes the mound for Houston in the series opener. The righthander has allowed one run across his last three starts (17 innings). Th
Astros, atop AL West despite offensive slowdown, open series vs. Phils | Yardbarker Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA) will get the nod for the Astros on Tuesday.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 72.5% vs 17% min; cushion +2.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 8.0, proj 6.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.302 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Iassogna — 9.1 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.04x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .191 | OPS .705
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.6%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.6% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/7 (100%) | L20 7/7 (100%) | Season 7/7 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.71 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/7 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 18.6%, full-lineup opp K% 19.4%, 6/9 bats with platoon edge -- A risk note

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 5.5 (-142) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 6.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	-
BetOnline	5.5	-145	+111	-
BetRivers	5.5	-132	+100	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-142	+111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+115	-
BetMGM	6.5	+135	-185	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 73%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Angels vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Analysis Sept. 8 Tier 3
The headline for Tuesday’s game at Fenway is the pitching gap, and it runs deeper than ERA suggests. Reid Detmers is quietly one of the better starters in this matchup — a 162-inni
Adley Rutschman's three-run HR off Pesky Pole carries Red Sox past Angels, 5-2 Tier 3
LHP Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.44 ERA) is set to start for the Angels against LHP Patrick Sandoval (1-4, 4.41) on Tuesday night in the middle game of the series.
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/8 & 9/9 & 9/10 | Pitcher List Tier 3
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener. ... PL Pro Members have access to my 14-Day Sit/Start SP Grid, whic
Angels can't keep pace with Red Sox, lose for 12th time in 14 games - Los Angeles Times Tier 3
Up next: LHP Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.44 ERA) is set to start for the Angels against LHP Patrick Sandoval (1-4, 4.41) on Tuesday night in the middle game of the series
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox Box Score, Summary, and Team Stats - September 7, 2026 Gametracker - CBS Sports Tier 2
Rodriguez allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his previous seven starts before giving up five over four innings Monday. LHP Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.44 ERA) i

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 38.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 9.6, proj 7.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 33 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 33 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 36.4%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Boston Red Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.8% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 71%

⚠ K final QC: 7/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -142, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- A risk note

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Brandon Young Over 3.5 (-138) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Brandon Young: K/9 7.0, proj 4.8K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Slider: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, active roster 19.3%/14 hitters, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 5; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.58
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 83%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -138, pitch-type boost on 16% usage pitch, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 3.5 (-165) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-182	+139	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+124	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 35.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.5, proj 4.7K over 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, active roster 19.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/33 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 3.52
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, active roster BVP damage OPS 1.071/AVG 0.429 over 8 PA, pitch-type boost on 18% usage pitch, expected IP 4.6 below A-grade leash -- A risk note

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-117) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 -117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-117	-118	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

Sources found, but no material batter availability or role signal matched.

Intel Sources

Cody Bellinger - Wikipedia Tier 3
With these titles, he became the first Dodgers outfielder to win any Fielding Bible Award and the first MLB player to pick up two in the same season. Bellinger rounded out the 2019
Alex Bregman - Wikipedia Tier 3
For the 2018 regular season, he ... 15.1 power–speed number (10th). Bregman batted .386/.488/.735 with runners in scoring position, the highest slugging percentage
With tragic number reached, these Angels won't be Mike Trout’s teammates next season Tier 3
Although star Mike Trout hasn’t requested a trade, we’re nonetheless expecting the Los Angeles Angels' 2027 roster to look much different.
White Sox Version of Randal Grichuk Is One of MLB's Best Hitters Tier 3
For reference, the most fun Grichuk fact relates his MLB Draft to Mike Trout.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 61/125 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/64 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 32/61 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 61/125 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.71
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-151) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-151	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

Intel Sources

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Series Preview (September 7-9): Overview, Game and Broadcast Info, Starting Pitchers, W2W4 - Tier 3
Jackson Chourio remains the most dangerous hitter for the Brew Crew out of the leadoff spot, and William Contreras also did significant damage against Chicago in the recent matchup
Milwaukee Brewers Make Big Jackson Chourio Change After Hitless Game - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
Here is the Brewers' full batting order for their series opener against the Cubs. ... J. Chourio LF · B. Turang 2B · W. Contreras C · A. Vaughn 1B · C. Yelich DH ... C. Pratt
Milwaukee Brewers Make Big Jackson Chourio Change After Hitless Game Tier 3
Here is the Brewers’ full batting order for their series opener against the Cubs. J. Chourio LF · B. Turang 2B · W. Contreras C · A. Vaughn 1B · C. Yelich DH ... C. Pratt SS · G. M
Christian Yelich - MLB News, Rumors, & Updates | FOX Sports Tier 3
Jackson Chourio singled home two runs to spark a three-run rally in the eighth inning and made a diving catch for the final out in the ninth as the Milwaukee Brewers came from behi
Brewers turn to Jacob Misiorowski in rematch vs. Cubs – [your]NEWS Tier 3
He also leads the National League with 227 strikeouts and has limited opponents to a .155 batting average, also tops in the majors. Misiorowski is 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA in five caree

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.334 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.591
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 68/110 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.44
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -151 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-115) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 3.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	3.5	-122	-108	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	3.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-113	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	3.5	-117	-104	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.25
David Peterson xFIP 4.07
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 102)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 132 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Away SP: David Peterson (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (118 play(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-182) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5272419172588827 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.2%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.1%/77 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-182) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Landen Roupp Over 1.5 (-147) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-147	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.315481849316221 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.0 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.548
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.5%, L7 6.8%, season 8.3% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/27 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Sean Burke Over 1.5 (-119) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0916075235062475 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.8% / under 49.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 10.5%, L7 10.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-128) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prop Picks 09/08/2026 | Citizens Bank Park Command Test Tier 3
Early damage or a weather interruption can shorten the starter's opportunity before the target is reached. The official prediction is Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 Pitcher Strikeou
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/8 & 9/9 & 9/10 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski @ PHI – Command has propelled Wesneski thus far, and it could continue here.
Phillies building up Tanner Banks to multi-inning role as he nears return from injured list Tier 3
3, 2025, for the Padres before undergoing arm surgery that sidelined him for most of 2026. Andrew Painter (3-8, 5.55 ERA) is scheduled to start Tuesday’s series opener against Astr
Astros vs. Phillies prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for September 8 - NBC Sports Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA) takes the mound for Houston in the series opener. The righthander has allowed one run across his last three starts (17 innings). Th
Astros, atop AL West despite offensive slowdown, open series vs. Phils | Yardbarker Tier 3
Hayden Wesneski (4-1, 3.18 ERA) will get the nod for the Astros on Tuesday.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0461450114662 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .191 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.6%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 9.5%, L7 7.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.0%/50 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.6% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/7 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Lodolo Over 1.5 (-186) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-186	+139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0299657805136397 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 9.8%, L7 13.8%, season 9.9%, BVP 8.1%/74 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-186) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brandon Young Over 1.5 (-144) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.940949446796325 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.1%, L7 5.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 1.5 (-130) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9123599239329736 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 8.8%, L7 6.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.75 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/4 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-179) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09558551500646 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.18 over 5.7 IP (BB% 4.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.0% / under 60.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.2%, L7 10.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-179) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (-198) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -198 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+148	-198	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.88245044847668 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.5 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.8% / under 62.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.3%, L7 9.4%, season 9.7% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.8% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/11 (82%) | Season 9/11 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-198) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Tanner Bibee Over 1.5 (-137) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.869874299502266 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 11.5%, L7 8.1%, season 9.8%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 25.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Over 1.5 (-143) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.838266617717941 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.0% / under 45.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.15x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 11.2%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.0%/118 PA (adj 1.15x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Under 1.5 (-182) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.306334595062417 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.8 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.9%, season 21.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.3%, L7 8.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Over 1.5 (-141) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.84 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .444 | OPS 1.056
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, top-6 26.8%, BVP 20.0%/10 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.8% (6/6); lineup K% 29.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (-131) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Corbin Burnes: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 22.3%, L7 16.3%, season 20.7%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.9% (6/6); lineup K% 20.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Over 1.5 (-138) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.548
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Over 1.5 (-170) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-180	+125	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.97 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.5%, L7 26.9%, season 21.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-172) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+129	-172	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 2.53)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 33 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 36.4%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-172); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Lodolo Over 2.5 (-156) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	-
DK	2.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.76 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 5.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 93 play(s) (B 93)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-346) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -346 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+239	-346	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.03
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 29/30 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 15/16 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter Walks: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Heavy juice (-346); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 86.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.08
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 23/25 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter Walks: 23/25 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eli White Under 0.5 (-487) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -487 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -487

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -487 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+325	-487	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/95 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/40 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter Walks: 84/95 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-487) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-311) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -311

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+217	-311	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.09
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 30/32 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/15 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.09

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-311) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-416) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/77 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter Walks: 69/77 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-416) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/101 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 89/101 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Callahan Under 0.5 (-288) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/17 (88%) | Season 15/17 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 10/12 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Heavy juice (-288); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Cox Under 0.5 (-243) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+173	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 40/45 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter Walks: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-243) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-334) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -334 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+231	-334	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 32/35 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/16 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter Walks: 17/19 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 32/35 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-334) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-416) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+282	-416	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 41/49 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 20/24 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-416); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 15 PA | 7/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/135 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 116/135 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-525) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/75 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter Walks: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 67/75 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 120/134 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter Walks: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 120/134 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-393) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+268	-393	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 47/53 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/27 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-393) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/71 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-331) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -331 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -331 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-331	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/82 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/40 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 68/82 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-331); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-350) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+241	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/138 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 120/138 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-362) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 24/28 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 9/11 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-425) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/91 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 78/91 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-347) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+239	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 75/94 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 75/94 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-347); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 104/127 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 104/127 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-478) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+319	-478	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 113/141 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 113/141 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-478); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Serna Under 0.5 (-433) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-300) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/141 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 122/141 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-525) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 96/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-422) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/85 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 71/85 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-422) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-286) diff 64.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -286 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.071
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/90 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 78/90 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Heavy juice (-286); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-321) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -321 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 113/133 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 113/133 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-309) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+215	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/92 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 74/92 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-309) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-358) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+247	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 117/142 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 117/142 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-358); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-398) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -398

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+271	-398	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 56/71 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-398) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-329) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/127 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 95/127 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-308) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/98 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/43 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 78/98 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-308) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-315) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -315 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -315 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+220	-315	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/88 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 65/88 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-315) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-328) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+228	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/76 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/39 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 28/37 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 58/76 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-328) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-502) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -502 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+333	-502	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/135 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/70 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 112/135 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-502) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-314) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -314 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -314 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+219	-314	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/95 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 80/95 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-314); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-403) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 52/66 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/35 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 52/66 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-403) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lazaro Montes Under 0.5 (-450) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-404) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 87/124 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 87/124 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-404); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 (-413) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+281	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-413) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .774
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 103/142 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 51/70 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 103/142 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-600); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-391) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 91/116 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-391); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-263) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -263 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+189	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-263	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 59/69 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/37 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 59/69 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-263) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-216) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -216 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+158	-218	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .808
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 106/131 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 106/131 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-216); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-314) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+219	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-314) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/142 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 108/142 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-475) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+318	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 54/66 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-362) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -362 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+249	-362	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 106/132 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 106/132 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-310) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 108/131 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 53/66 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 108/131 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-303) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/138 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 49/66 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 102/138 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-303); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-381) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -381

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -381 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+260	-381	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/136 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 108/136 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-381) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-500) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/128 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 104/128 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-380) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -380 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/23 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 20/23 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-380) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-366) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+251	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/118 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/60 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 86/118 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-366) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-452) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -452

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+304	-452	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .730
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 112/136 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 112/136 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-452); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-471) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/138 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 52/66 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 109/138 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-471); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-404) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/94 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/94 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-404); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-428) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+289	-428	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/76 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/33 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 53/76 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-428) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-429) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -429

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+290	-429	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .727
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/127 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/64 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 90/127 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-429) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-233) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	-
DK	0.5	+165	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-307) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -307

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-307	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/138 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 110/138 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-307) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-325) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/106 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 80/106 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-325) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-370) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-370	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/86 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 68/86 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-370); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-259) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+183	-259	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-259) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-330) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 97/137 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/67 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 97/137 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-330); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-475) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-332) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-332); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-525) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 72/87 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/42 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 72/87 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Deyvison De Los Santos Under 0.5 (-425) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-221) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+158	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 18/21 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 18/21 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-221); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-290) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -290 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -290 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/17 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 19/26 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-290) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-203) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-203	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/64 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 24/33 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-203) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-406) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+276	-406	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 96/137 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 96/137 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-406); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-249) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/89 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 64/89 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-249); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-421) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 48/62 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 24/33 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-421) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-240) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/101 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/101 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-240); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-308) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 102/139 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 102/139 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-308); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-238) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+169	-238	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/108 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 75/108 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-238) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-404) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 94/127 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 94/127 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-404); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-257) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 94/144 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/73 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 46/71 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 94/144 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-257); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-211) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -211 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -211 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+151	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 54/70 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/33 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-211) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-336) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+233	-336	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/89 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 68/89 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-336); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-282) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 63/92 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 63/92 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-282); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-348) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 7/11 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-200) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+144	-200	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-340) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+235	-340	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 24 PA | 2/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .399
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/144 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 107/144 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-267) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -267 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+188	-267	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .476
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 100/137 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 50/69 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 100/137 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-267); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-304) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 38/57 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/30 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 19/27 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-304); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-274) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+235	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 107/141 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 107/141 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-274); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-265) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/105 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 70/105 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-265) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-250) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-250) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-230) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/141 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 85/141 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.46

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Matthew Lugo Under 1.5 (-148) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.33 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/6 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-144) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.472 (49 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 42/68 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 71/139 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-168) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	Recommended
DK	1.5	-168	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.528 (17 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/138 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/69 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 81/138 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, consensus lean 67%, raw gap 1.0, weak consensus 67% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -168 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-168) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-109) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.612 (40 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/141 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.80 | Day Batter HRR: 87/141 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.0 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-122) edge 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 7 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -122

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 8 books | 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 7 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-130	-	-
BetOnline	7	-118	-	-
BetUS	7	-125	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-120	-	-
Caesars	7	-115	-	Recommended
DK	7	-122	-	Selected
LowVig	7	-116	-	-
MyBookie	7	-118	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+102	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	+102	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 102)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (2.25)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ High Total edge 28% (≥25%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-132) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5	-115	-105	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5	-115	-115	-
MyBookie	5	-113	-108	-
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-132	SelectedRecommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.37
José Soriano xFIP 3.81
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-152) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 4 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Over 4 -101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	-152	+116	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	4	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	4	-105	-115	-
BetUS	4	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4	-105	-125	-
Caesars	4	-105	-125	-
MyBookie	4	-101	-121	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Tyron Guerrero (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Patrick Sandoval xFIP 4.38
Reid Detmers xFIP 3.43
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 99 (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
Away SP: Reid Detmers (LHP)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1033 signal(s))

▸ Batter Hits — 18 play(s) (A 1 | B 1 | C 16)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-223) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+166	-223	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.386 (90 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 101/142 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/71 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 52/71 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 101/142 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-202) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Recommended
DK	1.5	+150	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.259)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/130 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/65 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 48/65 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 96/130 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-253) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.90 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/53 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Hits: 39/56 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 83/109 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — George Springer Under 1.5 (-203) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.247)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/112 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 42/52 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 86/112 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-246) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+182	-246	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.88 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.428 (17 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 95/128 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/60 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 48/68 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 95/128 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-210) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+157	-210	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.276)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 6/23 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/66 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/32 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 25/34 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 51/66 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-225) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+167	-225	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.214 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 6/34 (18%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 103/141 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter Hits: 52/70 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 103/141 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-272) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +193; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	0.5	-263	+193	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
DK	1.5	+199	-272	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.174 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 48/67 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 26/36 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 48/67 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-251) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/42 (17%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/144 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 53/72 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 48/72 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 101/144 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-258) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Recommended
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/126 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/68 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 90/126 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-249) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+170	-230	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.374 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 76/114 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-254) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+187	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.398 (22 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 101/143 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 52/72 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 49/71 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 101/143 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-265) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Recommended
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.314)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.395 (66 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/33 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/142 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/75 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter Hits: 48/67 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 95/142 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-249) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+184	-249	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.21 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/141 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/72 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter Hits: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 91/141 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-261) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.26 (AVG 0.316)
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/136 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/65 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter Hits: 49/71 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 84/136 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-225) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+167	-225	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.21 (AVG 0.305)
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.400 (17 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 15/43 (35%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 89/138 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/69 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 89/138 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-270) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -270

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -270 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-295	+210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+198	-270	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.268 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.591
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 79/110 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brett Bateman Under 1.5 (-249) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.35 (AVG 0.333)
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 6/11 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter Hits: 9/15 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 15/26 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 168 play(s) (A 4 | B 3 | C 161)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-475) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+317	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/127 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 102/127 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-441) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+298	-441	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 112/144 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 60/73 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 112/144 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-441); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-529) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -529 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -529

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -529 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+349	-529	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/80 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/37 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 61/80 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-529); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-439) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/93 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 35/46 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 72/93 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-439); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-273) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+192	-273	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 89/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ethan Salas Under 0.5 (-300) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/4 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-168) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/92 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/92 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-108) diff 97.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	-
DK	0.5	-108	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter Walks: 60/108 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.76

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+107) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+107	-149	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/141 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/70 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 32/71 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 67/141 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-331) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+229	-331	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/49 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 71/98 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-235) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	-
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .214
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 90/122 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 90/122 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-456) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -456

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+306	-456	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 7/11 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-276) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .856
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 9/11 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 15/20 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-338) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+234	-338	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 22/28 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/15 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter Walks: 8/13 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 22/28 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-298) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -298

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+208	-298	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/99 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/99 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-474) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -474

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -474 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+317	-474	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Aaron Judge Over 0.5 (-114) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/59 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/26 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 16/33 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-566) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -566 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -566

Selected market: Over 20.0% / Under 80.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -566 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+370	-566	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/123 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 45/64 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 87/123 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-306) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/67 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/36 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 51/67 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-295) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 94/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-372) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/62 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/36 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 19/26 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 109/143 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/71 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 109/143 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-400) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 43/57 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/31 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 18/26 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-432) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -432 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -432

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -432 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-432	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/138 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 106/138 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-357) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -357

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+246	-357	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/74 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 23/36 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 51/74 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-305) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/128 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/65 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 94/128 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+241	-350	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 70/101 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-392) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+268	-392	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 16 PA | 6/16 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 84/115 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-385) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 25 PA | 11/22 | HR 4 | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.605
BVP walk adjustment: 1.13x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/135 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/68 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 47/67 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 98/135 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-104) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-104	-133	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/144 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/72 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 37/72 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.74 | Day Batter Walks: 75/144 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-296) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 71/102 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-351) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -351 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -351 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-351	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/129 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 93/129 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-290) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+172) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +172 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +172

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 68/134 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/73 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 31/61 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 68/134 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.71

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-333) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+231	-333	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 103/134 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/66 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 103/134 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-371) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+255	-371	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/120 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/120 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-327) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 26/34 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/13 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 15/21 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 26/34 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-320) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-417) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 101/135 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/67 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 101/135 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-328) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+227	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 21 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.165
BVP walk adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 103/142 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 103/142 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-245) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+173	-245	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/124 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/62 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 84/124 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 80/107 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-224) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/111 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 83/111 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-406) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -406 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-406	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/134 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 96/134 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-319) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -319 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/139 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/73 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 96/139 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-323) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -323 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 107/138 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 53/70 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 107/138 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-217) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+155	-217	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/141 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/70 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 41/71 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 83/141 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-382) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+261	-382	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/128 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/65 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 49/63 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 93/128 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-337) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/144 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 93/144 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-366) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+251	-366	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/55 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-483) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -483

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+322	-483	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/133 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/67 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 94/133 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-317) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 31/41 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 15/22 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 70/111 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-406) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -406

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+276	-406	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/117 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-201) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+144	-201	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/74 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/41 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/6 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-267) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+188	-267	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 50 PA | 13/45 | HR 2 | K% 12.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .807
BVP walk adjustment: 0.98x from 50 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/87 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 57/87 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-427) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -427 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -427

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -427 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+289	-427	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 100/137 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 47/70 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 100/137 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -375; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 83/109 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-224) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/142 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 41/70 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 83/142 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-240) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 59/78 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 31/40 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 59/78 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-285) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+200	-285	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/138 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 43/67 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 98/138 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-122) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -122

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	-122	-113	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/138 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/69 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 41/69 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 73/138 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+101) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+115	-152	-
DK	0.5	+101	-139	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/142 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/75 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 72/142 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-260) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+184	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-268) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/139 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/70 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 87/139 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-343) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -325 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+237	-343	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-207) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/13 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 17/22 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-283) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/124 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/63 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 91/124 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-199) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-243) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+109) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.4% / Under 55.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+109	-150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/130 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/62 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 29/68 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 60/130 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+126) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+142	-193	-
DK	0.5	+126	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/140 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/71 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 28/69 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 55/140 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+142) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/137 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/67 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 34/70 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 52/137 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-306) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/125 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 76/125 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-332) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/131 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/67 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 46/64 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 92/131 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+145) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/144 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/71 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/73 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 54/144 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-268) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/126 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 93/126 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-204) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 33/49 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/24 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 14/25 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 33/49 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-295) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 31/46 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/27 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 12/19 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-376) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+257	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-288) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-325	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/124 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/61 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 45/63 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 89/124 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+115) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+115	-159	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 63/139 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 29/71 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 63/139 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-243) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 92/137 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/67 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 92/137 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-450) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.45x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/93 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/46 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 70/93 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-225) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/143 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/71 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 40/72 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 80/143 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyren Paris Under 0.5 (-265) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.33 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/3 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (+179) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +179 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +179

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+179	-253	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.83 | Away Batter Walks: 17/51 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 42/99 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.61

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-294) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 75/126 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/68 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 75/126 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-189) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+136	-189	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 68/97 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-277) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+194	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+245	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 76/109 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-202) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.591
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-208) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -208 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+149	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.45x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 11 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .705
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/94 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 73/94 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-234) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 80/117 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-268) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 90/134 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 42/64 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 90/134 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-332) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+235	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/118 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 82/118 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-247) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 41/59 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 15/30 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-196) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+140	-196	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (+102) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +102

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
DK	0.5	+102	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/119 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 64/119 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-266) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+188	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/121 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/63 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 81/121 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (+131) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-182	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 30/75 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/39 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 14/36 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 30/75 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (+125) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+125	-174	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 20/51 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 45/99 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-330) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/141 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 102/141 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Over 0.5 (+129) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .713
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/123 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 27/64 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 51/123 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 (+185) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +185

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 37/80 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/41 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 19/39 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 37/80 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-268) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/75 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/38 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 54/75 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-209) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+150	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 92/138 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 92/138 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brock Rodden Under 0.5 (-340) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 14/19 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Juan Soto Over 0.5 (-135) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
DK	0.5	-135	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.72
Base projection 0.72 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 58 PA | 16/52 | HR 3 | K% 15.5% | BB% 10.3% | OPS .879
BVP walk adjustment: 1.07x from 58 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/93 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.72
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 24/48 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 48/93 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-240) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/138 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/69 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 96/138 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-194) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+139	-194	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/133 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/65 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 89/133 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-194) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+139	-194	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 83/137 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/73 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/64 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 83/137 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-260) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+183	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/135 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 93/135 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-167) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-167	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 22 PA | 6/21 | HR 3 | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.080
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 93/137 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/67 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 93/137 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+140) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/144 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/72 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 28/72 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 64/144 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-193) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+138	-193	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/130 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/65 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 41/65 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 82/130 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-228) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/144 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 50/72 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 98/144 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-215) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-215	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 88/136 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/66 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 47/70 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 88/136 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-235) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -235; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/145 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/73 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 88/145 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 (+143) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .322
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/98 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 16/44 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 40/98 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+140) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/134 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/71 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 26/63 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 60/134 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+179) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +179

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+179	-254	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 53/143 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/72 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 25/71 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 53/143 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-225) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/127 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/67 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 86/127 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-183) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -183

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+132	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 95/139 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 95/139 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-177) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 84/134 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/66 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 41/68 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 84/134 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (+116) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+116	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 51/109 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-208) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -208

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-208	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/139 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/69 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 40/70 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 75/139 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Over 0.5 (+158) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.43 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/7 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-194) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+139	-194	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 55.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/91 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/46 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 27/45 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 53/91 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-196) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+161	-225	-
DK	0.5	+141	-196	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 32/49 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-178) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 85/123 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 85/123 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-270) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 78/139 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/71 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 42/68 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 78/139 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-197) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+141	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/140 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/69 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 39/71 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 77/140 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-231) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/92 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 58/92 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (+248) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +250 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +248

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 5/10 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.50

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 26.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (+184) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +184 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +184

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	-
DK	0.5	+184	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 18/51 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 38/104 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+150) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/59 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/32 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-222) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/49 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/21 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 15/28 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 25/49 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (-101) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
DK	0.5	-101	-136	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/137 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/63 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 23/74 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 48/137 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-202) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .133
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 90/145 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 43/73 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 90/145 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-195) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/135 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/69 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 90/135 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-213) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -213; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+152	-213	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/139 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 94/139 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-460) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -460

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+309	-460	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 4.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 62/116 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-140) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+101	-140	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-205) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+147	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/130 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/65 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 45/65 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 90/130 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-177) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.150
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/144 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 95/144 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-173) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+125	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 37/59 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/35 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 14/24 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-229) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 49/74 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 21/36 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 49/74 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+143) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/135 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/69 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 20/66 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 53/135 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-249) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/129 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/67 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 39/62 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 82/129 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (+181) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +181

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.0% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/137 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/68 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 22/69 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 44/137 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+117) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +117

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+117	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 2 | K% 27.8% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/127 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/64 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 20/63 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 53/127 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-195) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/66 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/32 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 25/34 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 45/66 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-112) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
DK	0.5	-112	-123	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/26 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 3/11 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 6/15 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 9/26 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-256) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/50 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 61/101 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (+202) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +202 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +202

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +202 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 3/10 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 9/19 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Roman Anthony Over 0.5 (+140) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 20/39 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/18 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 11/21 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 20/39 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Over 0.5 (+131) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-182	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 17 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .698
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/133 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/69 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 22/64 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 44/133 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-207) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 (+131) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+131	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/81 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/40 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 16/41 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 32/81 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (+122) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/145 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/70 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 33/75 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 57/145 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 (+158) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 20/61 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/116 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-226) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-226	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 37 PA | 11/34 | HR 2 | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .949
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 49/85 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/38 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 23/47 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 49/85 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 (+152) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +152

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+155	-220	-
DK	0.5	+152	-213	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.6% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 47/142 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/71 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 22/71 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 47/142 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (+148) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/139 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/71 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/68 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 51/139 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-231) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+164	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/139 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 43/71 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 90/139 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-197) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+141	-197	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/84 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 18/43 under 0.5 (42%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 49/84 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 5 | C 19)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 4.5 (-146) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+104	-
BetRivers	4.5	-129	-104	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
DK	4.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.89K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Andrew Painter: K/9 8.0, proj 5.4K over 5.4 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 16.2% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Iassogna — 9.1 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.04x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7%, active roster 21.6%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
K% trend: support +3.9 ppts (recent 23.9% vs season 20.0%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (+104) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 8.33 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 8.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	8.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+115	-150	-
DK	8.5	+104	-132	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.0K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 18.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 12.2, proj 10.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 37.5% | put-away% 31.1% | xwOBA 0.224 | top pitch: Curveball (45% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 118 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.10 | Season Avg 8.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
K% trend: headwind -9.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 38.3%, proj adj -4.9%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Drew Anderson Over 4.5 (-132) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Drew Anderson: K/9 9.5, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Vic Carapazza — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Anderson: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .567
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 6/46 (13%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 (-111) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	-
BetRivers	4.5	-103	-130	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-114	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.3% / under 49.7%); own-line consensus 3/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 5.6, proj 4.1K over 6.4 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 176 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, active roster 23.9%/14 hitters, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.2 ppts (recent 10.4% vs season 17.6%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 (-154) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-147	+113	-
BetRivers	5.5	-157	+117	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+110	-
DK	5.5	-154	+121	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.49K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.0, proj 6.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .444 | OPS 1.056
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, top-6 26.8%, BVP 20.0%/10 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Los Angeles Angels 8/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 31.8%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; L7 team K% 29.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 26.8% (6/6); lineup K% 29.1% (9/9); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Over 4.5 (+105) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+105	-133	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.1% / under 53.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dean Kremer: K/9 9.0, proj 5.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Vic Carapazza — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 106 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .347 | OPS .978
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 106 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.1%, BVP 17.0%/106 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 23.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-118) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -118

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-118	-108	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 22.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Freddy Peralta: K/9 8.2, proj 5.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 120 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .717
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 120 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 22.5%/120 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.5%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 68%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 22.9% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 22.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Under 4.5 (-164) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 3.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 7.0, proj 3.5K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Steven Jaschinski — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; New York Yankees 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 25.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.8% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/11 (64%) | Season 7/11 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 12.7% vs season 18.2%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — AJ Smith-Shawver Under 3.5 (+105) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 3.3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
AJ Smith-Shawver: K/9 8.2, proj 2.8K over 4.5 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.1% | put-away% 13.5% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Willie Traynor — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Split-Finger: 18.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, active roster 18.0%/14 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 71%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.75 | Season Avg 3.75
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Over 3.5 (-164) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 3.67 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-175	+134	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-164	+128	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta -0.20
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.5, proj 4.1K over 4.8 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.382 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.3%/14 hitters, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.06
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 (-104) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 8.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -104

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 8.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+175	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	8.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-125	-
DK	8.5	-104	-122	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	8.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 9.8K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.1% / under 51.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tarik Skubal: K/9 11.0, proj 9.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.0% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 34.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, active roster 25.2%/14 hitters, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Cincinnati Reds 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 26.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; L7 team K% 26.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 7.23
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.09) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Under 5.5 (-141) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	-
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
BetRivers	5.5	+120	-162	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+111	-141	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-166	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.4, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Estabrook — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .641
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Miami Marlins 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.2%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.2% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (9/9); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Burke Under 6.5 (-125) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 6.21 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-185	+141	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	6.5	+100	-135	-
BetRivers	6.5	+105	-139	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
DK	6.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Sean Burke: K/9 9.2, proj 5.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4%, active roster 24.2%/14 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Pittsburgh Pirates 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5
K% trend: headwind -5.4 ppts (recent 20.9% vs season 26.3%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Quinn Mathews Under 5.5 (-152) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.17 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Quinn Mathews: K/9 8.7, proj 4.9K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3%, active roster 22.7%/13 hitters (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; San Francisco Giants 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.80
Prop trend: K L10: 3/5 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Over 4.5 (+122) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Michael Wacha: K/9 7.8, proj 4.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Wills — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 90 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, active roster 20.6%/14 hitters, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 69%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 24.4% vs season 20.1%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 4.5 (-166) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -166 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Cal Quantrill: K/9 7.5, proj 4.2K over 5.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.7% | put-away% 15.8% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +1.98 vs season
K% trend: support +7.0 ppts (recent 25.6% vs season 18.6%, proj adj +3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (-110) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-110	-116	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.4% / under 50.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Casey Mize: K/9 7.0, proj 4.7K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Split-Finger (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Split-Finger: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.5%, L7 26.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.7%/14 hitters (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.7 ppts (recent 13.9% vs season 21.6%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 111 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-132) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+104	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.3% / under 53.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
David Peterson: K/9 9.1, proj 4.3K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 97 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.04
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
K% trend: support +4.8 ppts (recent 24.3% vs season 19.5%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 104 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 4.5 (-150) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: betrivers (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.0% / under 44.0%)
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.4, proj 4.7K over 5.2 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.283 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.8%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.8% (14 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.3 ppts (recent 18.6% vs season 23.9%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-146) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+114	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Tanner Bibee: K/9 7.1, proj 5.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 25.7%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 24%; L7 team K% 27.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 25.5% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.55
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (+106) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 7.38 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 7 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+135	-190	-
BetMGM	7.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	7.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	7.5	-127	-106	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	-
DK	7.5	-135	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	7.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.1, proj 7.2K over 6.1 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Steven Jaschinski — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8%, active roster 23.1%/13 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.1% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 7.24
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+108) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.1, proj 5.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 29.9% | put-away% 19.0% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.2%/14 hitters, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.0 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 23.1%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (-105) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-106	-122	-
BetRivers	4.5	+110	-148	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.1, proj 4.6K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Changeup (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9%, active roster 24.9%/14 hitters (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 25.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 60%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.9% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 4.5 (+126) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +126

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.93 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 4.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-175	+134	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-161	+126	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Landen Roupp: K/9 7.6, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.7% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Curveball: 25.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 7 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .667 | OPS 1.548
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.4%, L7 22.9%, season 20.8%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.5 ppts (recent 14.8% vs season 22.3%, proj adj -3.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 10 play(s) (B 1 | C 9)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-154) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+115	-
DK	17.5	-154	+116	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-152	+114	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.793000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 2.25 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 11.2%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.0%/118 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 17.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-118) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 16.5 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 16.5 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 17.5 -113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-125	-105	Recommended
Fanatics	16.5	-130	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-115	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-113	-118	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-118	-112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.863999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 13.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/7 UNDER | avg line 17.25 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 33 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 36.4%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.5%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 18.5 (+140) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+115	-155	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	18.5	+126	-170	-
DK	18.5	+140	-187	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+136	-182	-
Fanatics	18.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.813 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 106
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/29 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 17.5 (-226) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -226

Selected market: Over 64.9% / Under 35.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-240	+165	-
Caesars	17.5	-230	+170	-
DK	17.5	-226	+167	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-215	+158	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-225	+150	-
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.651 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.64 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.9% / under 35.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 12.2%, L7 10.2%, season 9.5%, BVP 5.6%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.50 | Season Avg 18.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Under 17.5 (-132) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 17.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-105	-135	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	+100	-132	-
DK	17.5	-101	-132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+108	-148	-
Fanatics	17.5	-110	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 15.354999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 10.5%, L7 10.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Over 17.5 (-125) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-120	-115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-107	-
DK	17.5	-125	-106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	-
Fanatics	17.5	-112	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 19.453999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 11.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.6%/90 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (+136) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-165	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+140	-180	-
Caesars	18.5	+130	-180	-
DK	18.5	+136	-182	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+142	-188	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.086999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.5 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.50 | Season Avg 19.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-113) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	+102	-135	-
DK	17.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	+100	-136	-
Fanatics	17.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.549999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.45 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.1%, L7 5.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Under 17.5 (-107) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-118	-115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-125	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-125	-108	-
DK	17.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-122	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.642000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.6% / under 48.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 11.5%, L7 8.1%, season 9.8%, BVP 3.9%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 25.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 17.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 17.5 (-113) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	-
DK	17.5	-118	-113	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.179 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.29 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.2%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 13.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 216 play(s) (B 32 | C 184)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-131) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/145 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/73 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 79/145 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-137) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.347 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 86/141 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/72 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 86/141 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-135	+102	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.312 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Aaron Judge Over 1.5 (-133) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.570, xSLG 1.021 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/59 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/26 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.81 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-165) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-162	+121	-
DK	1.5	-165	+124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.386, xSLG 0.533 (90 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/142 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 43/71 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 81/142 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-125) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.377 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/139 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 42/71 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 74/139 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-159) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	-
DK	1.5	-159	+120	Selected
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.399 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/137 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 38/74 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 70/137 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-123) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.308 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 17 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/133 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 71/133 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-105) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.275 (80 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 71/139 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-141) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.204, xSLG 0.299 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/138 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 69/138 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-124) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.563 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/144 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 77/144 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-159) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-170	+124	-
DK	1.5	-159	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/126 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 73/126 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-138) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.401 (22 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/136 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/65 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 76/136 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-142) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.478 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/133 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 64/133 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-145) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.517 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/116 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 63/116 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-137) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.226 (57 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/138 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/69 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.46 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 66/138 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-114) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.683 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 55.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/91 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 26/45 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 47/91 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.320 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-111) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.410 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/141 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 72/141 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-118) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.08x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 15 PA | 7/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/135 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 62/135 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-133) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	Recommended
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.438 (43 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/113 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 50/113 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-126) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.04x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/134 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 63/134 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-126) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.176, xSLG 0.201 (63 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/139 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 68/139 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (-121) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .322
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/98 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 48/98 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-122) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.420 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/137 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 63/137 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dustin Harris Under 1.5 (-175) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.25
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/11 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter HRR: 10/17 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-135) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.149, xSLG 0.093 (26 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/92 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/45 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 53/92 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-122) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-107	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/135 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 36/65 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 71/135 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-110) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.330 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/97 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 44/97 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (-119) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.325 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 23/49 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-130) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.181, xSLG 0.218 (42 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/127 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/67 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 49/127 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-125) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.249 (55 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/67 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 79/137 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+104) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.00
Base projection 3.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/7 (100%) | L20 7/7 (100%) | Season 7/7 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/7 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-143) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-140	+107	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.539 (22 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/143 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/72 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 41/71 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 83/143 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Deyvison De Los Santos Under 1.5 (-173) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/8 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (-110) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-111	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.381, xSLG 0.534 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/119 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 64/119 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Serna Under 1.5 (-146) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/5 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-137) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.479 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/144 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 45/72 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.68 | Day Batter HRR: 82/144 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shay Whitcomb Under 1.5 (-173) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.72
Base projection 0.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/15 under 1.5 (80%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter HRR: 15/17 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter HRR: 27/32 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-144) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+111) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Base projection 2.40 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/81 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/40 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 24/41 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 47/81 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-110) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.497 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/63 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 72/121 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-121) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.305 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/94 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/43 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 50/94 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-120) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 37 PA | 11/34 | HR 2 | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .949
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/85 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/38 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 45/85 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-121) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/141 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/70 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 74/141 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-106) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.305 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 79/144 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/72 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 79/144 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-149) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 42/59 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 69/114 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+106) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.430 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/134 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/71 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 78/134 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-164) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.391 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/11 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 9/15 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 16/26 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/80 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/41 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 15/39 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 39/80 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-130) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/136 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 69/136 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+121) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.393, xSLG 0.511 (83 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/125 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 75/125 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-111) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.436 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/125 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 58/125 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-146) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.174, xSLG 0.109 (15 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/67 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/36 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-124) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.361 (26 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 78/139 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 78/139 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-137) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-145	+108	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.480 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 58 PA | 16/52 | HR 3 | K% 15.5% | BB% 10.3% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 58 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 46/93 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-140) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.492 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/120 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 59/120 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-112) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.248 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/123 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 61/123 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-110) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.499 (32 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+106) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.342 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/134 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 68/134 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 9/17 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.53 | Day Batter HRR: 11/23 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+102) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/136 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/136 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-103) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.394, xSLG 0.520 (53 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/127 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 58/127 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Wells Under 1.5 (-169) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.140, xSLG 0.172 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/108 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter HRR: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter HRR: 79/108 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eduardo Valencia Over 1.5 (-105) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 14/30 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/14 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 5/16 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter HRR: 14/30 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-110) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.528, xSLG 0.961 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 16/43 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/19 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+125) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.244 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 77/137 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 38/66 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 77/137 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Under 1.5 (-152) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.311 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/131 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/65 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter HRR: 48/66 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter HRR: 98/131 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+135) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/144 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 39/70 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 75/144 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-105) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/138 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 76/138 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+100) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.429 (67 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/145 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/70 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 40/75 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 81/145 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+129) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.367, xSLG 0.475 (166 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/128 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.67 | Away Batter HRR: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 65/128 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+108) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/135 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 70/135 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-130) diff 34.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.218 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 60/133 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 60/133 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-104) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.457 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/134 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 41/68 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 74/134 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Koss Under 1.5 (-182) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.177, xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/53 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 20/26 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-111) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.417 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 64/144 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/73 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 64/144 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+111) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.444 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Under 1.5 (-169) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.352 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 46/60 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter HRR: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-146) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.166, xSLG 0.162 (16 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 47/64 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 25/33 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter HRR: 47/64 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+104) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.323 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-113) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.323 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-101) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.242 (86 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/144 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/72 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 81/144 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-105) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.550, xSLG 0.781 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/29 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+112) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.250 (23 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/127 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 64/127 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-112) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.464 (67 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/141 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 70/141 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Callahan Under 1.5 (-173) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 14/17 (82%) | Season 14/17 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 10/12 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter HRR: 14/17 under 1.5 (82%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esteury Ruiz Under 1.5 (-165) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.93
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/95 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/46 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter HRR: 38/49 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter HRR: 74/95 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-116) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.348 (64 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .774
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/142 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 75/142 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (-108) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.175, xSLG 0.179 (26 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 11 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/94 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 50/94 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-138) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.419 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/139 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 70/139 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Under 2.5 (-135) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	-102	-132	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.280, xSLG 0.313 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/60 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 39/52 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 80/112 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Cox Under 1.5 (-155) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.239 (10 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 32/45 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/17 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter HRR: 19/28 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-152) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-152	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/124 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 65/124 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+103) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.453 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/136 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 70/136 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+104) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Under 1.5 (-164) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.154, xSLG 0.159 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 16 PA | 6/16 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/115 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 79/115 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 2.5 (-149) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.81 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.443 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 50/66 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/32 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/34 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 50/66 under 2.5 (76%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-116) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 71/133 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/67 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 71/133 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-120) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.499 (47 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/118 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 52/118 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+115) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/137 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 63/137 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-118) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 25 PA | 11/22 | HR 4 | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.605
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/135 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 29/67 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 62/135 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+106) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.440 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/135 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 66/135 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+106) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/137 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/73 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 67/137 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+122) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.283 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/137 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/68 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 73/137 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-114) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.289 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/142 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/75 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 64/142 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Under 1.5 (-145) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.343 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 65/91 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/45 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter HRR: 65/91 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.332 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/144 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 33/73 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 71/144 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+114) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.438 (96 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 59/139 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/73 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 59/139 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-187) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.567 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/106 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/52 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter HRR: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 73/106 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enrique Hernandez Under 1.5 (-156) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.93
Base projection 0.93 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/17 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter HRR: 8/11 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 21/28 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-112) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 39/84 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/41 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 39/84 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.375 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/62 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/36 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Moore Under 1.5 (-172) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/12 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 17/21 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+129) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.491 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .133
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/145 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/72 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 42/73 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 86/145 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-109) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.258, xSLG 0.274 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/144 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 41/73 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 70/144 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-116) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.375 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/138 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 65/138 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+108) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/34 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/13 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 16/34 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-112) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.529 (16 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-105) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.316 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-130) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.409 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 50 PA | 13/45 | HR 2 | K% 12.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 50 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/87 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 19/42 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 42/87 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 2.5 (-136) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	2.5	-102	-132	-
DK	2.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.434 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/130 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/65 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 43/65 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 89/130 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-105) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/138 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 64/138 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Gorman Under 1.5 (-175) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.200, xSLG 0.117 (23 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 45/74 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/38 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter HRR: 22/36 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 45/74 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-162) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.288 (27 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/133 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 41/65 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 80/133 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-127) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.312 (73 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+101) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 58/123 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 58/123 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Over 1.5 (-144) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.090 (13 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/59 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/35 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Teel Over 1.5 (+128) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/13 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 11/22 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Turner Hill Over 1.5 (+132) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 4/10 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 10/19 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-103) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-119) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/134 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 62/134 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+106) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.238 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 24 PA | 2/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .399
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/144 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 72/144 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-120) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.274 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/86 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 36/86 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Under 1.5 (-155) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/78 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/38 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter HRR: 29/40 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter HRR: 55/78 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+109) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.478 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/80 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/40 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 22/40 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 36/80 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-123) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.309 (18 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/135 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 34/65 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 72/135 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Under 1.5 (-159) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/85 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 28/38 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter HRR: 60/85 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-142) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 71/141 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 71/141 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+114) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 65/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 65/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.257 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/142 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 39/70 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.50 | Day Batter HRR: 76/142 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+106) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+120) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.271 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/75 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/39 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 33/75 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Under 1.5 (-176) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.164, xSLG 0.204 (32 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter HRR: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter HRR: 73/109 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 16/49 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 40/101 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+124) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.388 (11 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/80 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 35/80 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-112) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.377 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 51/128 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/65 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 51/128 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Agustín Ramírez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.516 (14 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/57 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/30 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 9/27 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-137) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.428, xSLG 0.595 (17 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/128 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/60 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 49/128 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.333 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/138 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 64/138 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-106) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.251 (103 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 70/138 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (-110) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.234 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+103) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/126 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 55/126 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Under 1.5 (-139) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.188, xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/98 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/43 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter HRR: 59/98 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-141) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/130 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/65 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter HRR: 82/130 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+103) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/128 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/65 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 53/128 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-161) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.265 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 69/141 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 69/141 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-113) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.373 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/132 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 40/71 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 68/132 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+102) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-113) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.308 (80 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/135 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 62/135 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Story Over 1.5 (-105) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.391 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 24/49 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+117) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.407 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 21 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.165
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/142 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 31/72 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 61/142 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Under 1.5 (-134) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.225 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .808
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/131 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter HRR: 45/67 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 84/131 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (+101) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.406 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+111) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.332 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 25/49 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/21 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Under 1.5 (-172) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.318 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/89 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter HRR: 62/89 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-132) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/140 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 62/140 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+107) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.300 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-105) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.321 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/137 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 68/137 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-150) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.229 (29 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/107 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 31/51 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 62/107 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+110) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 (-157) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.209, xSLG 0.225 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/76 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/39 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/37 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 46/76 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (-106) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.283 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/133 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 25/68 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/133 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Under 1.5 (-155) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/44 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter HRR: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 60/98 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+103) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.346 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/137 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 61/137 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+120) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.419 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/93 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 43/93 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+118) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.70 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.417 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/130 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/62 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 33/68 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 57/130 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+106) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.371 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-115) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/134 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/67 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 41/67 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 82/134 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+105) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.181, xSLG 0.248 (50 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 65/138 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/71 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 65/138 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Under 1.5 (-167) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.365 (20 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/75 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/38 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter HRR: 19/37 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 45/75 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+111) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.417 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/138 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/68 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 56/138 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (-150) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.404 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/109 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 45/109 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-173) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.344 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/125 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 38/66 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 77/125 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-143) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/129 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 84/129 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 54/134 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/73 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 54/134 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Under 1.5 (-154) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.392 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 82/120 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 82/120 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-130) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/88 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/41 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 33/47 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 60/88 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-160) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.232 (29 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/139 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 40/68 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 85/139 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.372 (25 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-127) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.197, xSLG 0.198 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 22 PA | 6/21 | HR 3 | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.080
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 83/137 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/67 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 83/137 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/109 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 16/53 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 40/109 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+114) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +114; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
DK	2.5	+114	-152	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.59 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Base projection 2.46 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.395, xSLG 0.599 (66 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 63/142 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/75 over 2.5 (53%), avg 2.75 | Away Batter HRR: 23/67 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 63/142 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Under 1.5 (-152) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/131 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 38/64 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 84/131 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-104) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.216 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 47/74 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/41 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 19/33 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 47/74 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Under 1.5 (-158) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/99 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 60/99 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.337 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Roman Anthony Under 1.5 (-105) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.182 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/39 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/18 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 11/21 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 20/39 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-156) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.418 (14 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/124 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 40/63 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 77/124 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+120) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 55/140 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/75 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 55/140 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.484 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/94 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 38/94 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.328 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Lawlar Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.545, xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/16 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 2/13 over 1.5 (15%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter HRR: 11/29 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.426 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/124 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/63 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 45/124 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-178) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-170	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.324 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/142 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/71 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 39/71 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 76/142 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy (2002) Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 1.5 (-137) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 36/62 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/29 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter HRR: 16/33 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 36/62 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Alexander Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.338 (30 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/92 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter HRR: 38/92 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (-103) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.290 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/92 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 15/48 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter HRR: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 32/92 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.221 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 26/70 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/33 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 15/37 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 26/70 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+116) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.493 (22 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/93 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 38/93 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Under 1.5 (-155) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 11/17 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 16/26 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.632 (11 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/41 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/19 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter HRR: 9/22 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 279 play(s) (B 6 | C 222 | D 51)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (-150) diff 231.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.491 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .133
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/145 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/72 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter TB: 51/73 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 101/145 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.22

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-190) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.430 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/134 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/71 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 40/63 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 87/134 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.65

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-225) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
Fanatics	0.5	-205	+155	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.162 (16 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/64 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 29/33 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter TB: 52/64 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+114) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.591
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Agustín Ramírez Under 1.5 (-177) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.516 (14 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 38/57 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/30 under 1.5 (63%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 19/27 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-159) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (73 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/140 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 44/69 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 90/140 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 268.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 14/23 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.91

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 265.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.511 (83 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/125 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/64 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 42/61 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 88/125 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.97

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 (-120) diff 265.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.503 (149 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/123 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 41/64 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 74/123 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.97

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 265% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eduardo Valencia Over 0.5 (-160) diff 265.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/30 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/14 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.57 | Away Batter TB: 8/16 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 17/30 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 265% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-160) diff 251.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/134 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 44/64 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 90/134 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.87

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 245.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 246.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/81 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/40 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 53/81 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.80

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 246% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-125) diff 245.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 65/108 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyren Paris Over 0.5 (-140) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/3 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (+150) diff 233.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 233.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.244 (20 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 90/137 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 44/66 over 0.5 (67%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter TB: 90/137 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.89

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 37.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-120) diff 231.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/135 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/66 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 40/69 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 76/135 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 231% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 (-200) diff 226.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.475 (166 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/128 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/63 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 42/65 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 90/128 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.78

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 0.5 (-190) diff 223.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+139	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/144 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 51/74 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 51/70 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 102/144 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 (-150) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (103 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/103 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 62/103 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.75

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-180) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/135 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/67 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 86/135 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.60

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-200) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (96 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 81/139 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/73 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/66 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 81/139 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.55

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ethan Salas Over 0.5 (-118) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/4 (0%) | L10 0/4 (0%) | L20 0/4 (0%) | Season 0/4 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/4 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/137 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 45/70 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 84/137 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+220) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 29.4% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (+180) diff 208.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/99 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/48 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 38/51 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 67/99 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.62

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-160) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 21/34 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/13 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 13/21 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 21/34 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 0.5 (+140) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.332 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 91/144 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 46/73 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 91/144 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-165) diff 202.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.269 (15 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/14 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 9/12 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 20/26 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.65

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-145) diff 200.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.416 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 2 | K% 27.8% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/127 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/64 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 43/63 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 83/127 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 200.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-175) diff 193.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.323 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 62/104 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-155) diff 190.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 62/116 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-200) diff 185.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+140	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.453 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 91/136 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 48/68 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 91/136 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 185.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-160) diff 184.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.238 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 24 PA | 2/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .399
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/144 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/72 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 52/72 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 97/144 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 180.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/129 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/67 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 36/62 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 69/129 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (-155) diff 180.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/142 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/72 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 46/70 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 95/142 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 (-185) diff 179.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/86 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 22/42 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 48/86 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 176.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 88/143 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/71 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 88/143 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 174.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/102 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 55/102 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 174.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-165) diff 172.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.300 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-155) diff 167.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-150	+112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 21 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.165
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/142 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 75/142 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 167.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/131 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/67 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 32/64 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 64/131 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (+190) diff 165.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (22 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/93 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/46 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 52/93 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (+190) diff 163.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/93 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 59/93 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 163.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 163% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-190) diff 162.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+128	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 162.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 32/49 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/21 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 16/28 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 162.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 162.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 163% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-160) diff 162.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 162.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/138 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/72 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 83/138 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 162.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 162.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (+170) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.388 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/80 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/37 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 24/43 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 51/80 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-185) diff 158.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/133 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/65 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 40/68 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 80/133 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-185) diff 156.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.321 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 89/137 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/67 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 42/70 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 89/137 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 (+160) diff 155.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/16 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 3/13 over 0.5 (23%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter TB: 13/29 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-175) diff 154.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 29/62 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/29 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 18/33 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 29/62 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-155) diff 151.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/126 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 68/126 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 151.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-165) diff 149.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.781 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 34/59 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/29 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 149.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 149.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 146.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 32/49 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 61/101 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-200) diff 146.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/102 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 29/48 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 61/102 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-160) diff 145.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.426 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/124 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 66/124 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-145) diff 145.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.261 (49 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/118 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 65/118 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 145.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 0.5 (-155) diff 144.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.632 (11 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 19/41 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/19 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 11/22 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 19/41 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 144.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/75 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/39 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 23/36 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 45/75 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-135) diff 144.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.291 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/80 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 26/39 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 50/80 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-175) diff 141.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/129 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/70 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 72/129 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 141.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-165) diff 140.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/99 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/48 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 56/99 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 140.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-155) diff 136.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.328 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 30/51 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-190) diff 135.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.221 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 35/70 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/33 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 20/37 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 35/70 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 135.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-185) diff 132.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.346 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/137 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/67 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 38/70 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 76/137 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 132.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-190) diff 131.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.302 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/29 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 6/12 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 16/29 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Alexander Over 0.5 (+180) diff 128.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 128.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/92 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/49 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 20/43 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 47/92 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 128.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 128.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-155) diff 127.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/17 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 16/26 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (-115) diff 127.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 91/143 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 45/72 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 91/143 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (+110) diff 127.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+110	-150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+113	-147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+111	-148	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.420 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/139 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/69 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 40/70 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 78/139 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-145) diff 127.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 17/37 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/17 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 9/20 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-150) diff 126.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 78/134 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/73 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 78/134 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 0.5 (-165) diff 125.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/119 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 70/119 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 125.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 123.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 123.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/89 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/44 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 48/89 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 123.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 123.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-165) diff 121.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 43/88 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/41 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 21/47 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 43/88 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 121.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 (-165) diff 120.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.324 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 97/142 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/71 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 47/71 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 97/142 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 120.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-135) diff 116.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/89 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 23/42 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 43/89 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 116.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 115.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 115.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 58/120 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 115.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 115.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-175) diff 113.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.225 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .808
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/131 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/64 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/67 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 67/131 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 113.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-165) diff 112.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 112.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.225 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/76 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/39 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 20/37 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 44/76 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 112.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 112.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-155) diff 110.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 110.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 71/130 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 33/65 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 71/130 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 110.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 110.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-160) diff 107.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.229 (29 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 58/107 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 107.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (+220) diff 107.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.204 (32 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 58/109 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 107.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 107.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/43 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 54/98 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 107.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-160) diff 106.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/125 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 39/66 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 67/125 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Moore Over 0.5 (-160) diff 106.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 12/21 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (-155) diff 104.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Away Batter TB: 6/10 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 10/19 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 0.5 (+220) diff 104.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 104.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.179 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 17/33 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/16 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 7/17 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 17/33 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 104.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 104.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-115) diff 102.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/77 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/43 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 15/34 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 36/77 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 102.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-160) diff 102.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/85 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 0.5 (40%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 23/38 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 42/85 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 102.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (+240) diff 92.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (10 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/75 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/37 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 15/38 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter TB: 37/75 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 92.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 92.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (-140) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.93
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/17 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter TB: 8/11 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 15/28 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.244 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/35 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 14/31 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 31/66 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-120) diff 83.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/124 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/63 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 28/61 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 55/124 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyrone Taylor Over 0.5 (-135) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.338 (13 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/46 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 40/89 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Callahan Over 0.5 (-160) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.88
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 5/12 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter TB: 8/17 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-165) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/91 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/45 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter TB: 38/91 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-160) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.288 (27 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/133 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/68 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 39/65 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 75/133 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-110) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.180 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 62/106 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 77.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 77.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-155) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 29/90 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/52 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter TB: 13/38 over 0.5 (34%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 29/90 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-185) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.567 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 53/106 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 53/106 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 73.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 73.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 0.5 (+145) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+155	-204	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.135 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/98 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/49 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 41/98 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 70.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 70.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 31/95 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/46 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 31/95 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Cox Over 0.5 (-200) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/45 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/17 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter TB: 9/28 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 69.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 9/28 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/17 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 9/28 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dustin Harris Over 0.5 (+200) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-138	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 14/28 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 63.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Deyvison De Los Santos Over 0.5 (-185) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.75 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/8 over 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Serna Under 0.5 (+105) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — LaMonte Wade Jr. Over 0.5 (+126) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.281 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 18/46 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/27 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter TB: 8/19 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.84 | Day Batter TB: 18/46 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.599 (66 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/142 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/75 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.43 | Away Batter TB: 22/67 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 64/142 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-103) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/130 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 58/130 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-104) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.539 (22 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.933 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/143 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 68/143 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-125) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 31/40 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/20 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter TB: 16/20 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter TB: 31/40 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+123) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.472 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/139 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/71 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 61/139 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+134) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.612 (40 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/141 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/71 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 66/141 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-240) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.33
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.33 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/6 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 1.5 (+125) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.534 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 58/119 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 58/119 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-150) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/131 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter TB: 25/66 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/131 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-103) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.528 (17 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/138 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 66/138 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+128) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 70/144 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 35/72 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 70/144 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-190) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/92 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/48 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter TB: 27/44 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 67/92 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+108) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/145 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/73 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 62/145 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Aaron Judge Over 1.5 (+109) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 1.021 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/59 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/26 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.31 | Away Batter TB: 12/33 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-191) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/134 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/67 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 47/67 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 96/134 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 (-158) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (44 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 52/74 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/41 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 23/33 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 52/74 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Under 1.5 (-198) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 35/49 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 19/25 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+123) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/141 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 57/141 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-101) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.399 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/137 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 34/74 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 61/137 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-104) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.533 (90 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/142 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 62/142 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 (-140) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/25 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter TB: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter TB: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+107) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/106 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 36/106 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+101) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.299 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 60/138 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-197) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (80 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/135 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 40/66 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 88/135 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (+118) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 58 PA | 16/52 | HR 3 | K% 15.5% | BB% 10.3% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 58 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 37/93 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 37/93 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (67 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/145 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 35/75 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 67/145 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+111) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/133 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 22/63 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 50/133 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+122) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.563 (47 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/144 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 62/144 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-192) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.347 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/141 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 64/141 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+150) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.86 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/7 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-181) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/128 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 42/63 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 91/128 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-172) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 87/135 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 41/65 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 87/135 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+131) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.305 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 38/94 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 38/94 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+106) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 66/144 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/72 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter TB: 66/144 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Story Under 1.5 (-193) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.391 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/49 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 33/49 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-162) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/140 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/69 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 50/71 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 94/140 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+135) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.497 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/121 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 54/121 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+107) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.226 (57 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter TB: 27/69 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 60/138 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+120) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.492 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/120 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 55/120 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+134) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.275 (80 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/139 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter TB: 52/139 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+136) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.961 (21 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 15/43 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/19 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 9/24 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 15/43 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jahmai Jones Over 0.5 (-160) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/82 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/40 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter TB: 9/42 over 0.5 (21%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter TB: 25/82 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+129) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.520 (53 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/127 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 26/67 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 51/127 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-153) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.090 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 42/59 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 19/24 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-108) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.99x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/126 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 57/126 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Roman Anthony Under 1.5 (+170) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +170

Selected market: Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.182 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 25/39 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/18 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 14/21 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 25/39 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-156) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	Recommended
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+121) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/136 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/66 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 52/136 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-160) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	Recommended
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.595 (17 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 86/128 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 86/128 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+104) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/125 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/64 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 47/125 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-182) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.309 (18 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/135 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/70 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 37/65 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 80/135 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+132) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 45/118 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 (-200) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.248 (50 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/138 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 91/138 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 (-159) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.218 (42 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/127 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/67 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 76/127 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-114) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/130 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 41/65 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 83/130 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+137) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.248 (33 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 57/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (43 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Under 1.5 (-208) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/97 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 66/97 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+143) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/92 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 38/92 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Under 1.5 (-166) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 77/109 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-200) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/144 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 47/73 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 93/144 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Under 1.5 (-200) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +133; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.234 (64 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 32/49 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 69/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+128) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 48/144 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/73 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 23/71 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 48/144 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (22 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/136 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/65 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 64/136 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.312 (21 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/108 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 19/50 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 36/108 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-184) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.420 (47 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 89/137 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/68 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 89/137 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+137) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (67 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/141 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 58/141 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-166) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.201 (63 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/139 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/71 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 46/68 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 87/139 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 73/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 1.5 (-167) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .322
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/98 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 26/44 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 59/98 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+140) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 17 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/133 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 59/133 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+107) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/139 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/68 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 56/139 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-102) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+126) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.377 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/139 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/68 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 54/139 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.683 (16 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 55.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/91 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 35/91 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.361 (26 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/139 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/71 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 57/139 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 33/80 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 12/39 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 33/80 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-144) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.265 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/141 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 43/70 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 88/141 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+126) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.410 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/141 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/69 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 57/141 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-165) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Konnor Griffin Under 1.5 (-187) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.375 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/62 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/36 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 17/26 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 39/62 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-107) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 59/141 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 59/141 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+139) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 58/138 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/71 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 58/138 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-197) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-200	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/132 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 41/71 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 82/132 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-200) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.250 (23 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/127 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 42/67 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 79/127 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+113) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 50 PA | 13/45 | HR 2 | K% 12.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 50 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 32/87 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 32/87 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-171) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/134 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/66 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 86/134 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.06x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 15 PA | 7/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/135 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/68 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 21/67 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 49/135 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 (-185) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/53 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 70/101 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Under 1.5 (-200) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 71/111 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-198) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/134 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/66 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/68 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 72/134 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/133 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/67 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 24/66 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 49/133 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+109) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.109 (15 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 24/67 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 12/31 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 24/67 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-176) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -176 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (86 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/144 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/72 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 47/72 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 89/144 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-201) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (16 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/102 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 35/51 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 67/102 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 7/15 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 13/26 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-117) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 25 PA | 11/22 | HR 4 | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.605
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/135 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 24/67 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 48/135 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/134 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 22/68 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 51/134 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (26 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 11 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/94 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 10/44 over 1.5 (23%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 34/94 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (-227) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/101 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 31/49 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 63/101 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/84 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/41 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 33/84 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/73 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 80/137 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+144) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 37 PA | 11/34 | HR 2 | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .949
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/85 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 12/47 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 27/85 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.44

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.478 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 28/80 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/40 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 17/40 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 28/80 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-124) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.443 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/66 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 22/34 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 46/66 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-175) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.33 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/142 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 53/75 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 40/67 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 93/142 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Under 1.5 (-200) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-193	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (103 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 37/69 under 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 85/138 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+147) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/117 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 47/117 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/138 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/72 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 39/66 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 87/138 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-179) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.348 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .774
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 91/142 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/72 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 41/70 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 91/142 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Under 1.5 (-146) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.517 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/116 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 71/116 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/128 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/65 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 42/128 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+147) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/138 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/69 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 54/138 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-120) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.50
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.120 (15 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/28 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/15 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter TB: 7/13 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter TB: 19/28 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 199.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 9/14 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 16/26 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-160) diff 190.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/136 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/70 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 42/66 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 77/136 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 (-155) diff 189.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.417 (172 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/139 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/70 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 47/69 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 96/139 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-155) diff 182.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 94/137 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/68 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 94/137 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 0.5 (-135) diff 175.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.365 (88 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 45/74 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/38 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 19/36 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 45/74 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 168.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 168.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 67/140 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/75 over 0.5 (41%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 67/140 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 168.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-150) diff 167.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/138 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/70 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 73/138 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (+105) diff 165.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-120) diff 165.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.388 (81 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/116 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 66/116 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 (-190) diff 163.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/123 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/62 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 73/123 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 163% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+170) diff 162.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 162.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.372 (25 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/59 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/32 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 162.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (+150) diff 158.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.419 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/93 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 55/93 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-200) diff 149.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.484 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/94 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 52/94 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 149.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-110) diff 140.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 140.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.179 (29 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 59/111 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 140.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (-140) diff 134.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.488 (134 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 66/114 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-120) diff 131.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.418 (14 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/124 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/61 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 68/124 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 0.5 (-175) diff 127.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/44 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 53/98 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-155) diff 122.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (38 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 66/114 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Teel Over 0.5 (-115) diff 117.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 117.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 5/13 over 0.5 (38%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 11/22 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 117.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (-110) diff 117.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 117.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.381 (115 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/118 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/60 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 74/118 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 117.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-155) diff 113.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 37/69 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.81 | Away Batter TB: 20/32 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 37/69 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-130) diff 113.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (29 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/71 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 71/139 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (+280) diff 112.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +280

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 112.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.285 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/127 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/65 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 71/127 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 112.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (+150) diff 112.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 112.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.198 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 22 PA | 6/21 | HR 3 | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.080
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 70/137 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/67 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 33/70 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 70/137 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 112.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-120) diff 111.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .727
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 65/127 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/64 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 65/127 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-150) diff 103.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 103.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 19/35 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/16 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter TB: 11/19 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 19/35 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 103.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.52 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+170) diff 101.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 101.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.249 (55 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/137 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/67 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 76/137 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 101.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.50 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-150) diff 95.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.458 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/127 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 31/62 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 67/127 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 95.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-120) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-109	-122	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.223 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/120 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 26/58 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 54/120 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-135) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.223 (12 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/109 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 52/109 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Connor Norby Over 0.5 (-105) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.304 (96 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 51/89 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/47 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 26/42 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 51/89 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.362 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/71 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/31 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 17/40 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 31/71 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 (-135) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.117 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/74 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 18/36 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 37/74 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (+100) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.321 (142 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/131 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/66 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 67/131 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-130) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.94
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.159 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 16 PA | 6/16 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (+260) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.532 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .214
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 58/122 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 81.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (+180) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.093 (26 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 46/92 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 79.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-135) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.99
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (15 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 38/71 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/34 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 24/37 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 38/71 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-150) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 18/45 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/99 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-140) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.94
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.352 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/111 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter TB: 49/111 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 77.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-120) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.92
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 36/86 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter TB: 16/38 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 36/86 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 77.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (-115) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.90
Base projection 0.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/10 (40%) | Season 4/10 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Day Batter TB: 4/10 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 75.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-135) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.87
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/128 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/63 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter TB: 27/65 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 52/128 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 70.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-120) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.87
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/64 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-110) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.172 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-140) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/53 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 25/53 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Eli White Over 0.5 (-135) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 39/95 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/40 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 39/95 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (+300) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!–! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.199 (16 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/134 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/66 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 36/68 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter TB: 64/134 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andrew Knizner Over 0.5 (-135) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/16 (19%) | Season 3/16 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 3/16 over 0.5 (19%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 (-135) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/32 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 3/15 over 0.5 (20%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter TB: 5/17 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter TB: 8/32 over 0.5 (25%), avg 0.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (+100) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 13 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .801
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/79 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/39 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter TB: 14/40 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter TB: 27/79 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter HR — 260 play(s) (B 2 | C 258)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0968
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.323 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/93 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 84/93 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1408
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.533 (90 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 126/142 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/71 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 126/142 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0075
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.199 (16 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 133/134 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/66 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 67/68 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Day Batter HR: 133/134 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 97.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0150
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.288 (27 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/133 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/68 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 131/133 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 97.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0148
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (80 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 133/135 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 65/66 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 133/135 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 96.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0171
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.137 (13 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 116/117 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/64 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 116/117 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 95.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0204
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 48/49 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 48/49 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 95.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0227
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/131 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 64/66 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 128/131 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0336
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.381 (115 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 114/118 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 114/118 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.309 (18 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 135/135 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 70/70 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 65/65 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 135/135 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 26/26 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 15/15 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 28/28 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 17/17 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 28/28 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/6 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0348
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.159 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 16 PA | 6/16 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/115 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/56 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 111/115 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Serna Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Deyvison De Los Santos Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/8 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.120 (15 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 27/28 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/15 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 13/13 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 27/28 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/17 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 27/28 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0395
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.225 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 73/76 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 37/37 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 73/76 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyren Paris Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 3/3 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0323
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 88/91 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/45 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 88/91 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0400
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 24/25 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0441
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (22 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/136 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/65 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 130/136 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0435
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/92 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/49 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 88/92 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0448
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.457 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/134 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/66 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 128/134 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0563
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.324 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .558
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 134/142 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 68/71 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 134/142 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0462
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 124/130 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 63/65 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 124/130 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0543
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.093 (26 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/92 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/45 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 87/92 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 90.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0556
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/53 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/27 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0533
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (10 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 71/75 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/37 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 36/38 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 71/75 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0563
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.329 (15 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 67/71 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/34 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 34/37 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0476
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 20/21 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0522
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/134 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 72/73 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 127/134 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.232 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/98 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/43 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 92/98 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.162 (16 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 60/64 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 60/64 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0508
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.781 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 56/59 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0612
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.391 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 46/49 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jahmai Jones Under 0.5 (-800) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0610
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/82 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 40/42 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 77/82 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0674
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.304 (96 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/89 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 83/89 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/16 (94%) | Season 15/16 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 15/16 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eli White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0632
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/95 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 89/95 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.516 (14 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 54/57 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0758
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.244 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 61/66 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/35 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0638
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.265 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 132/141 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 132/141 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 32/34 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 12/13 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 32/34 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Callahan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (6 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/17 (94%) | Season 16/17 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 126/135 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 126/135 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0643
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/140 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 131/140 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0630
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.218 (42 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0615
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.434 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/130 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/65 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 122/130 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0630
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .727
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/64 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0682
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 124/132 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 124/132 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0647
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (29 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 130/139 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/71 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 130/139 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0650
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 115/123 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 115/123 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0672
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 126/134 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/67 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 126/134 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0619
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (12 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/97 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 91/97 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0709
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.458 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/127 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 118/127 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.321 (142 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/131 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 122/131 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.595 (17 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 120/128 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/60 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 120/128 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0687
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.225 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 13 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .808
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/131 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 65/67 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 124/131 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/105 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/105 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0674
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/89 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/45 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 83/89 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0730
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.321 (39 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 127/137 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 127/137 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.223 (12 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0935
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.180 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Roman Anthony Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.182 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 36/39 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/18 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.392 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/120 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 112/120 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.204 (32 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0738
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.532 (31 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 14 PA | 1/14 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .214
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/122 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 113/122 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0787
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.285 (11 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 117/127 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 117/127 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0706
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/85 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 37/38 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 79/85 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0632
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/95 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/46 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 89/95 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0784
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.301 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0726
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 115/124 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 115/124 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0709
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.347 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .636
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 131/141 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 131/141 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 24/26 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 45/49 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0803
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.249 (55 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 126/137 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 126/137 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0746
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 126/134 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/66 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 126/134 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0761
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/92 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 85/92 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0698
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/129 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 120/129 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/125 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 116/125 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0806
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.375 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 57/62 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-900) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.216 (44 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 1 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/74 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 29/33 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 68/74 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-900) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0775
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Andrew Painter: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/129 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 119/129 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (57 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/75 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/39 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 36/36 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0814
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 79/86 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 79/86 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Cox Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (10 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 41/45 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0876
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.346 (21 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 126/137 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 126/137 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0809
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.453 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 125/136 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 125/136 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0845
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.362 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 65/71 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/31 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0877
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.488 (134 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/114 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/114 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0808
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.374 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/99 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 91/99 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0946
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.365 (88 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 67/74 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 67/74 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0935
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.229 (29 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0851
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.484 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 86/94 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 86/94 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/98 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 90/98 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0876
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 126/137 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 126/137 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.172 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/108 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/108 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.352 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 126/138 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/68 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 126/138 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0938
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 29/32 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/15 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 29/32 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (29 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 63/69 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/37 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0778
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/90 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 83/90 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0917
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0935
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.234 (64 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 98/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/77 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/43 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 31/34 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 70/77 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0949
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.198 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 22 PA | 6/21 | HR 3 | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.080
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/137 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 68/70 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 124/137 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.261 (49 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0990
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.328 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 91/101 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 91/101 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 11.6% / Under 88.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0942
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 126/138 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 62/66 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 126/138 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0899
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.529 (16 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/102 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/51 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/102 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0957
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0896
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.109 (15 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/67 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/36 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1079
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.417 (172 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/139 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/70 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 124/139 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1259
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.289 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .552
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 125/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 125/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 9/10 (90%) | Season 9/10 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 9/10 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 5.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-800) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1023
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/88 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/88 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-900) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1016
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/128 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 115/128 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0941
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 37 PA | 11/34 | HR 2 | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.4% | OPS .949
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 37 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/85 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/38 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 77/85 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.517 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/116 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 106/116 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1010
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 90/99 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/99 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (49 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 129/144 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 66/73 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 129/144 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1014
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 125/138 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 125/138 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-750) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.242 (86 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/144 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 129/144 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0976
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.632 (11 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 38/41 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/19 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 20/22 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.223 (33 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1095
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.420 (47 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .476
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/137 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/68 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 65/69 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 123/137 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.428 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .629 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/136 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 124/136 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0990
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/101 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/101 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1154
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.269 (15 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 23/26 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1127
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.348 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 14 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .774
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 128/142 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 128/142 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1122
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 13 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .322
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/98 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 87/98 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1216
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.117 (23 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 65/74 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 33/36 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 65/74 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1223
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.201 (63 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/139 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 123/139 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1172
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.475 (166 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 115/128 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 115/128 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (38 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-600) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.090 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 53/59 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/35 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1159
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/72 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/66 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.135 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/98 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 42/49 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 85/98 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1079
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.377 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 124/139 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/68 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 124/139 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.308 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 17 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/133 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 119/133 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1232
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.248 (50 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/126 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/66 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 112/126 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1183
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.419 (11 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/93 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/93 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1119
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 128/143 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 128/143 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1129
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.426 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/124 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 110/124 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1129
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.418 (14 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/124 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 110/124 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1127
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 21 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.165
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 128/142 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 128/142 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.388 (11 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/80 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 70/80 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.372 (25 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 52/59 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.300 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/109 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/109 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1286
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.221 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 61/70 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 61/70 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-750) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1269
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.430 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/134 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 119/134 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-600) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1348
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 11 PA | 0/11 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/141 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 123/141 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.250 (23 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 111/127 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 57/67 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 111/127 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1259
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 119/135 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 119/135 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1655
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.420 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/139 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/69 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 116/139 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.332 (32 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 128/144 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 67/73 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 128/144 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/138 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 58/69 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 122/138 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 30/35 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 14/19 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 30/35 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1314
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/137 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/73 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 60/64 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 120/137 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1214
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 125/140 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 71/75 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 125/140 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.179 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 28/33 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 28/33 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1458
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.238 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 24 PA | 2/21 | HR 0 | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .399
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/144 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/72 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 124/144 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-550) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1349
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/126 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 110/126 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 115/133 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 115/133 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1690
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 124/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 124/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1367
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.361 (26 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 121/139 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/68 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 121/139 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/22 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/13 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.443 (20 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/66 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 30/34 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.14 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/7 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1151
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.472 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/139 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 124/139 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1408
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.289 (80 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 124/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1398
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.493 (22 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/93 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 80/93 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1375
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.478 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/80 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/40 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 34/40 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 70/80 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1515
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/99 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 84/99 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 25/29 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 13/13 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 25/29 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 17/20 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1407
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Corbin Burnes: 15 PA | 7/15 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/135 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 116/135 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1545
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.248 (33 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .713
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/123 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 106/123 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1631
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.410 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 121/141 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 121/141 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1504
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 114/133 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 114/133 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (103 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 116/138 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 116/138 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1528
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.479 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/144 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 124/144 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1890
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.416 (43 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 2 | K% 27.8% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/127 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 103/127 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1560
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.464 (67 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 120/141 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 120/141 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1528
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/144 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 124/144 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1982
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.179 (29 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 71.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/111 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 90/111 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1618
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 115/136 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/66 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 115/136 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1522
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.528 (17 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 118/138 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 118/138 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1630
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/92 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 77/92 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1774
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/124 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 103/124 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/62 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/29 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1641
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/128 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 109/128 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1642
Pitcher assessment: Corbin Burnes contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 113/134 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/66 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 113/134 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1750
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/80 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 67/80 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1897
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.388 (81 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-550) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/102 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 86/102 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1809
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (26 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 11 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 27.3% | OPS .705
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/94 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 77/94 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1630
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 25 PA | 11/22 | HR 4 | K% 12.0% | BB% 12.0% | OPS 1.605
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/135 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 115/135 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1758
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.683 (16 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 9 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 55.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/91 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 77/91 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1655
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.275 (80 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 117/139 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 117/139 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.299 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 116/138 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 116/138 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (16 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 22/26 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1695
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (47 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/118 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 101/118 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1727
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.438 (96 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/139 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/73 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 53/66 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 116/139 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1857
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.312 (73 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Riley Cornelio contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/140 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 116/140 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1839
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 50 PA | 13/45 | HR 2 | K% 12.0% | BB% 8.0% | OPS .807
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 50 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/87 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 72/87 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1809
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.305 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/94 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 79/94 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1920
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.511 (83 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/125 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/125 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/84 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 69/84 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.497 (49 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/121 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/121 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1825
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 114/137 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 114/137 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.547 (43 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/116 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/116 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2153
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 115/144 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 53/70 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 115/144 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1908
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/131 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 108/131 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-450) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1927
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/109 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/109 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2190
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.244 (20 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/137 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/66 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 109/137 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1890
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.520 (53 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/127 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 105/127 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1875
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.563 (47 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/144 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 118/144 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2136
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (103 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 85/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2099
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 65/81 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/40 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 65/81 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2164
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.342 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/134 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 108/134 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 109/133 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 109/133 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1986
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.612 (40 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 113/141 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/70 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 113/141 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2086
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 111/139 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 111/139 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 25/30 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 9/14 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2828
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.224 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.491 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 96, HR vulnerability 4 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 15 PA | 0/13 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .133
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 111/145 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 57/73 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 111/145 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1909
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.334 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.591
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2128
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.663 (46 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 114/141 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 114/141 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2414
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.283 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.429 (67 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Quinn Mathews contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 113/145 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 113/145 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.438 (43 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 91/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 91/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-550) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2296
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 105/135 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/66 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 105/135 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-475) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2276
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 113/145 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/73 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 113/145 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2473
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.480 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 58 PA | 16/52 | HR 3 | K% 15.5% | BB% 10.3% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 58 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 72/93 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 72/93 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-475) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2521
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.534 (15 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/119 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 90/119 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-475) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2628
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.399 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/137 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/63 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 57/74 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 102/137 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2569
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.305 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 20 PA | 5/16 | HR 2 | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | OPS 1.150
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 20 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/144 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 110/144 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-450) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2239
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.382 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/130 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 102/130 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2927
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.503 (149 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/123 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 48/64 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 95/123 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-370) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3116
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.226 (57 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 102/138 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/69 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter HR: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 102/138 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2778
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.444 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-500) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2657
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.539 (22 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: AJ Smith-Shawver contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 1.933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/143 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 54/71 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 109/143 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Aaron Judge Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2881
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 1.021 (20 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 43/59 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 17/26 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-370) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2676
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.599 (66 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/142 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/75 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 109/142 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3043
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 13/17 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 18/23 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Wacha Under 5.5 (-108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.77 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.03, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jose Soriano Under 5.5 (-145) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 10.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-107) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.94 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/30 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-147) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 25.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (-102) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 4.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Over 5.5 (+118) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.27 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.69, BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 (-112) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.18 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 74 PA | K% 23.0% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .759
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.0%, L7 22.2%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.0%/74 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Over 5.5 (+106) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.21 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.66, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 4/33 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 3.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 2/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8895206566160325 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.4 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Anderson: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.1%, L7 10.2%, season 8.5%, BVP 11.9%/42 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 12/46 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (-102) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8552725919816733 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.2%, L7 7.5%, season 8.7% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Over 1.5 (-156) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-156	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8493267901801096 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 106 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .347 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.1%, BVP 17.0%/106 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.5%, L7 6.3%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.4%/106 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Quinn Mathews Over 1.5 (-175) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8334934265010336 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.5%, L7 10.6%, season 7.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-188) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0570473028863856 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.9% / under 61.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Patrick Sandoval: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .444 | OPS 1.056
Opponent K profile: composite 24.8%, split 22.5%, L7 29.2%, season 25.3%, top-6 26.8%, BVP 20.0%/10 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 11.8%, L7 5.1%, season 8.2%, BVP 10.0%/10 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 26.8% (6/6); lineup K% 29.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-140) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.758667556602689 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.2 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Reid Detmers: 33 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .267 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 19.6%, L7 23.2%, season 21.3%, top-6 22.8%, BVP 36.4%/33 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.5%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 9.1%/33 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.8% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-167) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-167	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7522965025123944 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.1 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 120 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 22.5%/120 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 7.7%, L7 6.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 7.5%/120 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 22.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jack Perkins Over 1.5 (-159) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7342535957989984 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.3 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.5%, L7 7.9%, season 7.4% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/33 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Corbin Burnes Over 1.5 (+163) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +163

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.683394269343176 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.6 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.6% / under 64.4%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Corbin Burnes: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .260 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 22.3%, L7 16.3%, season 20.7%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.4%, L7 9.5%, season 8.4%, BVP 3.9%/52 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.9% (6/6); lineup K% 20.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 N/A | L10 N/A | L20 N/A | Season N/A | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg N/A | Season Avg N/A
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks: no recent game-log sample

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bubba Chandler Over 2.5 (+143) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.80547104916926 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.52 over 4.7 IP (BB% 12.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.5% / under 61.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.3%, split 11.1%, L7 13.4%, season 9.5% (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (-118) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6808597292783107 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.2%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-155) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.2327570891783957 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.18x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.4%, split 11.5%, L7 12.0%, season 10.7%, BVP 11.3%/97 PA (adj 1.18x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sandy Alcantara Over 1.5 (-139) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6123773745303775 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.2 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 6.7%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.8%/176 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Wacha Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5838196606615138 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 6.0 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 10.2%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.6%/90 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.506009127095969 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.8 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.94x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 8.1%, L7 6.2%, season 8.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (-108) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.83 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 5.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 24 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .217 | OPS .641
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.2%, BVP 8.3%/24 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.2% (6/6); lineup K% 20.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/29 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Anderson Over 1.5 (-156) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.73, ERA 3.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Drew Anderson: 42 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 21.4%/42 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 10/46 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-166) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	-
DK	2.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.62 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.8%, L7 22.6%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/28 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-174) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-185	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.99 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 2.25, ERA 2.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.6% / under 59.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 118 PA | K% 33.1% | BB% 11.0% | AVG .181 | OPS .576
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.1%, L7 19.6%, season 21.3%, BVP 33.1%/118 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Under 2.5 (-146) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 3.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Hayden Wesneski: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .191 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 19.0%, L7 20.2%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.6%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.6% (6/6); lineup K% 19.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/7 (57%) | L20 4/7 (57%) | Season 4/7 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/7 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-140) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.55 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 2.22)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, L7 18.5%, season 22.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 25/29 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fresh (0.95x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Quinn Mathews Under 2.5 (-169) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 24.1%, L7 21.3%, season 21.3% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-123) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	-
DK	2.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.46 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.5% / under 48.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Tanner Bibee: 51 PA | K% 21.6% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .292 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.8%, L7 27.4%, season 24.5%, top-6 25.3%, BVP 21.6%/51 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.3% (6/6); lineup K% 25.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 (+104) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+104	-139	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.5 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.7% / under 54.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 176 PA | K% 14.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .280 | OPS .770
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 19.6%, L7 20.3%, season 22.6%, BVP 14.8%/176 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/30 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-158) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.96 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 77 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .200 | OPS .616
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 18.2%, L7 23.4%, season 22.6%, BVP 23.4%/77 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-139) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.24 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.86, ERA 1.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 21/29 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (+103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+103	-136	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 4.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Painter: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 19.9%, L7 23.0%, season 21.7% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 (+106) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.94 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 5.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs AJ Smith-Shawver: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | AVG .529 | OPS 1.356
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.5%, L7 15.9%, season 18.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-157) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.29, ERA 4.41)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 120 PA | K% 22.5% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .232 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.0%, L7 26.9%, season 21.9%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 22.5%/120 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (6/6); lineup K% 22.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/28 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Wacha Over 2.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-131	-101	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 90 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .985
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 16.3%, L7 25.9%, season 19.5%, BVP 18.9%/90 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+112	-149	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 5.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 97 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.3% | AVG .253 | OPS .745
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.6%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 18.6%/97 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-142) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 4.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.8%, L7 24.9%, season 23.9% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Under 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.84 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 5.86)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .429 | OPS 1.071
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 18.4%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/33 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Under 2.5 (-145) Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.14 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.45, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .231 | OPS .872
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 15.2%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-125) Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.73 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.05, ERA 5.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 106 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 9.4% | AVG .347 | OPS .978
Opponent K profile: composite 23.4%, split 22.4%, L7 29.2%, season 23.0%, top-6 23.1%, BVP 17.0%/106 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 23.1% (6/6); lineup K% 22.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (-103) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-129	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.05 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.46, ERA 6.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Gabriel Hughes: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 24.5%, season 24.7%, top-6 24.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.8% (6/6); lineup K% 26.0% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 (-110) Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.49 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.64, ERA 2.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 36 PA | K% 38.9% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .176 | OPS .458
Opponent K profile: composite 26.6%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.4%, BVP 38.9%/36 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+780) edge 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +780

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.098 (raw=1.546, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.21)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.137)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Patrick Sandoval pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -1.0, xwOBA 0.355, HH% 33.7, mix CH/SL, n=848)
Reid Detmers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.282, HH% 36.4, mix FF/SL, n=2583)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Angels lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.383, hitters 8, mix CH/SL)
Boston Red Sox lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.367, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.80, expected pen 4.1 IP)
Los Angeles Angels bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 1.00, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 33.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 70.0%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Patrick Sandoval): 0.0285 HR/BF Away SP (Reid Detmers): 0.0244 HR/BF
Zach Neto: 0.0414 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1862 lambda
Mike Trout: 0.0400 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1720 lambda
Wilyer Abreu: 0.0408 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1713 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.8% (17 batter lines used) edge = +22.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+780) edge 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +780

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.098 (raw=1.546, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.21)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.137)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Patrick Sandoval pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -1.0, xwOBA 0.355, HH% 33.7, mix CH/SL, n=848)
Reid Detmers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.282, HH% 36.4, mix FF/SL, n=2583)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Angels lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.383, hitters 8, mix CH/SL)
Boston Red Sox lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.367, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.80, expected pen 4.1 IP)
Los Angeles Angels bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 1.00, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 33.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 70.0%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Patrick Sandoval): 0.0285 HR/BF Away SP (Reid Detmers): 0.0244 HR/BF
Zach Neto: 0.0414 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1862 lambda
Mike Trout: 0.0400 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1720 lambda
Wilyer Abreu: 0.0408 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1713 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.8% (17 batter lines used) edge = +22.5%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+664) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +664

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.203 (raw=1.573, park_adj=-0.120, SP_z=+0.07)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.214)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Sandy Alcantara pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.7, xwOBA 0.296, HH% 35.0, mix SI/CH, n=2961)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.339, HH% 39.8, mix FF/ST, n=2166)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.386, hitters 7, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 2.5 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 0.99, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 30.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 66.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.88 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Sandy Alcantara): 0.0226 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0381 HR/BF
New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Heriberto Hernández: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.5% (8 batter lines used) edge = +17.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+664) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +664

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.203 (raw=1.573, park_adj=-0.120, SP_z=+0.07)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.214)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Sandy Alcantara pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.7, xwOBA 0.296, HH% 35.0, mix SI/CH, n=2961)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.339, HH% 39.8, mix FF/ST, n=2166)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.386, hitters 7, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 2.5 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 0.99, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 30.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 66.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.88 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Sandy Alcantara): 0.0226 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0381 HR/BF
New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Heriberto Hernández: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.5% (8 batter lines used) edge = +17.6%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.508 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.14)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.559)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Landen Roupp pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.299, HH% 28.7, mix SI/CU, n=2543)
Quinn Mathews pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.0, xwOBA 0.281, HH% 37.7, mix FF/SL, n=492)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.93, expected pen 3.7 IP)
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Landen Roupp): 0.0177 HR/BF Away SP (Quinn Mathews): 0.0096 HR/BF
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.508 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.14)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.559)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Landen Roupp pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.299, HH% 28.7, mix SI/CU, n=2543)
Quinn Mathews pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.0, xwOBA 0.281, HH% 37.7, mix FF/SL, n=492)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.93, expected pen 3.7 IP)
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Landen Roupp): 0.0177 HR/BF Away SP (Quinn Mathews): 0.0096 HR/BF
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-115) edge 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 7.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 12 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 7.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-117	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-115	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
Caesars	7.5	-110	-	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	-115	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-118	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-115	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-113	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.86)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-114) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -114

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 11 books | 8 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-118	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-	-
Caesars	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-114	-	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-116	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-118	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	8	-120	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Braxton Roxby (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Landen Roupp (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Quinn Mathews (LHP) | opp wRC+ 86 vs LHP (favorable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 99)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Quinn Mathews small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-110) edge 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -110

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 12 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-111	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-114	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-105	-	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-112	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	-115	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-108	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-112	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Tyron Guerrero (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Patrick Sandoval (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Reid Detmers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 83 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.91
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Reid Detmers elite xFIP (3.43)
Los Angeles Angels weak offense (wRC+ 83)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+240) edge 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (F5) | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +252 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +240

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +252 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 2.86
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.46
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+135) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +143 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +143 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.37
José Soriano xFIP 3.81
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+122) edge 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +122

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0499 after 0.0050 buffer
Reid Detmers / Patrick Sandoval announced and matched

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Colorado Rockies (+266) edge 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +282 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +266

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +282 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +266 with 15.3% edge (EV $+51.65/$100)
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.86)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.9 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✗ Cover prob 58.2% < 60% gate | ✓ Edge 16.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +128 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (11 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-122	52.6%	80.3%	+27.7%	$+46.04	11	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-115	51.1%	72.2%	+21.2%	$+35.08	11	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-114	51.0%	67.3%	+16.3%	$+26.28	11	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-110	50.0%	66.0%	+16.1%	$+26.09	11	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Moneyline	Colorado Rockies	DK	+266	26.1%	41.4%	+15.3%	$+51.65	11	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

B Over 7.0 — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +27.7%

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: David Peterson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 102)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (2.25)

C Over 7.5 — Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (Total) +21.2%

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.2 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.86)

C Over 7.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (Total) +16.3%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Ixan Henderson (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Braxton Roxby (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Landen Roupp (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Quinn Mathews (LHP) | opp wRC+ 86 vs LHP (favorable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 99)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Quinn Mathews small sample (24 IP) — stats 30% actual / 70% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (Total) +16.1%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Tyron Guerrero (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Patrick Sandoval (LHP) | opp wRC+ 106 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Reid Detmers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs LHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 83 (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 0.91
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Reid Detmers elite xFIP (3.43)
Los Angeles Angels weak offense (wRC+ 83)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (Moneyline) +15.3%

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +266 with 15.3% edge (EV $+51.65/$100)
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs RHP (tough)
Yankee Stadium (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 105 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.86)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.9 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✗ Cover prob 58.2% < 60% gate | ✓ Edge 16.3% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +128 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
A	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	7:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-115	50.2%	65.4%	+15.2%	$+22.28	6	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (F5)	7:06 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+240	27.7%	39.8%	+12.1%	$+35.36	9	Bet on DK
B	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-132	53.5%	64.1%	+10.6%	$+12.61	6	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+135	40.1%	48.2%	+8.2%	$+13.40	8	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	6:46 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-152	56.6%	64.7%	+8.1%	$+7.21	6	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

A Over 3.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 Total) +15.2%

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Jacob Misiorowski xFIP 2.25
David Peterson xFIP 4.07
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 102)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 132 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Away SP: David Peterson (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (F5) (F5 ML) +12.1%

[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Yankee Stadium (HITTER)
Cam Schlittler xFIP 2.86
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.46
New York Yankees confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 100)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.16
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +10.6%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.37
José Soriano xFIP 3.81
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

C Athletics — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (F5) (F5 ML) +8.2%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Jack Perkins xFIP 4.37
José Soriano xFIP 3.81
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 126 blended 50% (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jack Perkins (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 Total) +8.1%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Tyron Guerrero (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.4 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Patrick Sandoval xFIP 4.38
Reid Detmers xFIP 3.43
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 99 (team 101)
Los Angeles Angels confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 100 (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
Away SP: Reid Detmers (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

6:36 PM · decision fi-003423f9d5a0f725

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-4.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -105

Raw Edge

-2.2%

Effective Edge

-3.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brandon Young · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tanner Bibee / Brandon Young announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTanner Bibee / Brandon Young announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-108	51.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

6:41 PM · decision fi-4f5f3a1f28d597c6

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.3%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-1.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Dean Kremer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Drew Anderson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dean Kremer / Drew Anderson announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDean Kremer / Drew Anderson announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-e496b8c38ffc57c9

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-0.3%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-3.7%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.492
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Hayden Wesneski / Andrew Painter announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.492

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSHayden Wesneski / Andrew Painter announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-108	-124	48.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

6:41 PM · decision fi-0feb59a2e05608ec

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-4.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +105

Raw Edge

+1.0%

Effective Edge

-0.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sean Manaea · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sandy Alcantara · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Manaea / Sandy Alcantara announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Manaea / Sandy Alcantara announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-121	49.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

6:46 PM · decision fi-1ee54839251bc51d

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +122

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.5% / +5.0%

Away starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Patrick Sandoval · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0499 after 0.0050 buffer
Reid Detmers / Patrick Sandoval announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.495

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0499 after 0.0050 buffer

Starter status · PASSReid Detmers / Patrick Sandoval announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-9164e5068ca12d19

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-4.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Gabriel Hughes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gabriel Hughes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGabriel Hughes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-107	51.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-3485d5fa3d63d046

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

+1.4%

Effective Edge

-0.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-4.0%

Effective Edge

-6.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Home starter: AJ Smith-Shawver · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Freddy Peralta / AJ Smith-Shawver announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFreddy Peralta / AJ Smith-Shawver announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-109	-122	48.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+104	-132	46.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

7:40 PM · decision fi-a8981061e5687e18

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers +100

Raw Edge

-0.6%

Effective Edge

-2.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -118

Raw Edge

-3.6%

Effective Edge

-5.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Corbin Burnes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Wacha · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.494
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Corbin Burnes / Michael Wacha announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.494

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCorbin Burnes / Michael Wacha announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+100	-132	46.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:41 PM · decision fi-ed2c049fd138dd77

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -139

Raw Edge

-6.9%

Effective Edge

-7.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM +120

Raw Edge

+3.3%

Effective Edge

+2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Misiorowski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
David Peterson / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDavid Peterson / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-155	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-162	+120	57.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-150	+118	56.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

7:41 PM · decision fi-0c4730559c555167

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -119

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.3%

Effective Edge

-1.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bubba Chandler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sean Burke · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bubba Chandler / Sean Burke announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBubba Chandler / Sean Burke announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-137	-105	53.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-33bd8ad89aa5b583

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-2.2%

Effective Edge

-3.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
José Soriano / Jack Perkins announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJosé Soriano / Jack Perkins announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-b9cfcd9df0a2b50c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-4.4%

Effective Edge

-6.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.1%

Effective Edge

-2.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Riley Cornelio · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Riley Cornelio / Casey Mize announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRiley Cornelio / Casey Mize announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

9:41 PM · decision fi-ffe27cc4f63567da

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:34:59.755357Z

both starters must be officially announced

2 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

9:46 PM · decision fi-fb6f0830850b3fdf

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -135

Raw Edge

-6.1%

Effective Edge

-8.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +114

Raw Edge

+1.9%

Effective Edge

-0.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Quinn Mathews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Landen Roupp · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Quinn Mathews / Landen Roupp announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSQuinn Mathews / Landen Roupp announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-136	+102	53.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-4a11449b24674b71

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Nick Lodolo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tarik Skubal · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-07 · updated 2026-09-08T19:27:09.042554Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Lodolo / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Lodolo / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-109	51.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 260 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=260
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	38.7%	27.2%	+11.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	2	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	36.7%	23.2%	+13.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.5%	22.0%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	34.4%	19.7%	+14.7%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Heriberto Hernandez	Miami Marlins	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-	Sean Manaea (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	33.9%	19.7%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	1	Hayden Wesneski (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	33.7%	27.2%	+6.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	1	Gabriel Hughes (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.5%	23.2%	+10.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	-	David Peterson (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	32.1%	16.4%	+15.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	3	Gabriel Hughes (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	31.8%	25.8%	+6.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Riley Greene	Detroit Tigers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	4	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	31.6%	17.9%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	3	Drew Anderson (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	31.4%	17.1%	+14.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	30.9%	20.8%	+10.1%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Nick Lodolo (L)	theScore Bet	+275	-	30.6%	24.6%	+6.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	1	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	30.5%	17.9%	+12.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	4	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	30.3%	19.7%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	-	AJ Smith-Shawver (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	30.1%	15.6%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Juan Soto	New York Mets	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-	Sandy Alcantara (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	29.5%	19.7%	+9.8%	98	-
Strong HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	3	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.2%	20.8%	+8.4%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	1	Corbin Burnes (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	29.2%	16.4%	+12.8%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	28.9%	22.0%	+6.9%	96	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	90.0%	-900	Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Hunter Goodman, Spencer Jones	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	89.5%	-855	Junior Caminero, Michael Harris II, Jonathan Aranda, Matt Olson	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	87.2%	-682	Pete Alonso, Coby Mayo, Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	86.7%	-653	Riley Greene, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Eduardo Valencia	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	86.5%	-640	Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	86.2%	-626	Kazuma Okamoto, Zack Gelof, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	86.1%	-621	Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Elly De La Cruz	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	84.8%	-557	Manny Machado, CJ Abrams, Ty France, Jackson Merrill	Petco Park HR factor 0.85 \| Wind 12 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	100	84.7%	-554	Cal Raleigh, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Dominic Canzone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Jackson Chourio, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	83.5%	-505	Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Brandon Lowe	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	99	80.4%	-411	Carter Jensen, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Pass	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	85	77.9%	-352	Joshua Baez, Rafael Devers, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.1%, P(U1.5) 55.5%
Pass	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	78	70.0%	-233	Heriberto Hernandez, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Agustín Ramírez	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 30.0%, P(U1.5) 66.2%
Pass	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	72	66.6%	-200	Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Wilyer Abreu, Kyren Paris	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 33.4%, P(U1.5) 70.0%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies (+240) HR chance 38.7% | edge +11.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.268, OPS 1.031, ISO 0.285, TB/G 2.15
Statcast: barrel 16.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.4/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.647
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 33/142 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0376, xFIP 4.39, K% 20.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.32, whiff 24.7%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.103, ISO 0.303 (458 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.599, xwOBA 0.395 (66 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles (+300) HR chance 36.7% | edge +13.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.228, OPS 0.854, ISO 0.228, TB/G 1.84
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.1/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.539
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 32/145 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0364, xFIP 4.43, K% 19.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.319, xERA 4.29, whiff 23.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.885, ISO 0.242 (432 PA)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves (+325) HR chance 34.5% | edge +12.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.266, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.250, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.493
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 34/143 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0270, xFIP 5.23, K% 17.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.32, whiff 23.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.876, ISO 0.260 (457 PA)
Park HR factor 1.03

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (+375) HR chance 34.4% | edge +14.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.209, OPS 0.754, ISO 0.216, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.438
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 28/139 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0427, xFIP 4.37, K% 25.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.03, whiff 27.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.716, ISO 0.197 (417 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.419, xwOBA 0.306 (48 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Strong HR Chance Heriberto Hernandez — New York Mets @ Miami Marlins (+375) HR chance 33.9% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.778, ISO 0.238, TB/G 1.56
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.2/111.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.484
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/113 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0381, xFIP 4.29, K% 21.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.95, whiff 22.0%
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.438, xwOBA 0.305 (43 PA)
Park HR factor 0.88

⚠ Confirmed lineup but player not listed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies (+240) HR chance 33.7% | edge +6.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.312, OPS 0.888, ISO 0.287, TB/G 1.98
Statcast: barrel 17.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.506
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/138 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0119, xFIP 4.12, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.302, xERA 3.81, whiff 27.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.133, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 0.861, ISO 0.297 (392 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees (+300) HR chance 33.5% | edge +10.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.263, OPS 0.878, ISO 0.265, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 14.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 35/137 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0223, xFIP 4.59, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.296, xERA 3.65, whiff 18.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 0.929, ISO 0.299 (386 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.399, xwOBA 0.329 (56 PA)

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (+475) HR chance 32.1% | edge +15.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.191, OPS 0.810, ISO 0.190, TB/G 1.95
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.8/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.458
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 18/110 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0256, xFIP 4.07, K% 19.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.340, xERA 4.95, whiff 22.0%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.591, K% 16.7% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.873, ISO 0.211 (149 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Justin Crawford	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1200	0.4%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+1400	0.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Wind 12 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	+1100	0.6%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Troy Johnston	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+1200	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Travis d'Arnaud	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+1200	0.8%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+1400	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Connor Wong	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+900	0.9%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Myles Straw	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	+1200	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	+900	0.9%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Walls	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+1100	0.9%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	Patrick Sandoval	Reid Detmers	0.95	33.4% MODEL SIGNAL	70.0% MODEL SIGNAL	10.8%	+22.5%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Sandy Alcantara	Sean Manaea	0.88	30.0% MODEL SIGNAL	66.2% MODEL SIGNAL	12.5%	+17.6%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Landen Roupp	Quinn Mathews	0.82	22.1% MODEL SIGNAL	55.5% MODEL SIGNAL	-	+0.0%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	7:40 PM	Michael Wacha	Corbin Burnes	0.93	19.6%	51.5%	10.0%	+9.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Sean Burke	Bubba Chandler	1.00	16.5%	46.3%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Jacob Misiorowski	David Peterson	1.08	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners	9:41 PM	None	None	0.92	15.3%	44.0%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Casey Mize	Riley Cornelio	0.85	15.2%	43.9%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Tarik Skubal	Nick Lodolo	0.97	13.9%	41.3%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jack Perkins	José Soriano	1.00	13.8%	41.1%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Andrew Painter	Hayden Wesneski	1.10	13.5%	40.6%	9.0%	+4.6%
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Drew Anderson	Dean Kremer	0.91	13.3%	40.1%	9.1%	+4.2%
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Brandon Young	Tanner Bibee	1.00	12.8%	39.1%	7.2%	+5.6%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	AJ Smith-Shawver	Freddy Peralta	1.03	10.5%	34.1%	8.4%	+2.0%
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Cam Schlittler	Gabriel Hughes	1.18	10.0%	33.0%	6.5%	+3.5%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (30.0%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (66.2%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.203 (raw=1.573, park_adj=-0.120, SP_z=+0.07)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.214)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Sandy Alcantara pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.7, xwOBA 0.296, HH% 35.0, mix SI/CH, n=2961)
Sean Manaea pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -0.8, xwOBA 0.339, HH% 39.8, mix FF/ST, n=2166)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Miami Marlins lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.386, hitters 7, mix FF/ST)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Miami Marlins bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 2.5 IP)
New York Mets bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 0.99, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 30.0% P(under 1.5 HR) = 66.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.88 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Sandy Alcantara): 0.0226 HR/BF Away SP (Sean Manaea): 0.0381 HR/BF
New York Mets Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Heriberto Hernández: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Mets Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.5% (8 batter lines used) edge = +17.6%

🔬 MODEL Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (33.4%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (70.0%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.098 (raw=1.546, park_adj=-0.050, SP_z=-0.21)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.137)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Patrick Sandoval pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 -1.0, xwOBA 0.355, HH% 33.7, mix CH/SL, n=848)
Reid Detmers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.9, xwOBA 0.282, HH% 36.4, mix FF/SL, n=2583)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Los Angeles Angels lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.383, hitters 8, mix CH/SL)
Boston Red Sox lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.367, hitters 9, mix FF/SL)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Boston Red Sox bullpen HR 0.96x (vulnerability 0.80, expected pen 4.1 IP)
Los Angeles Angels bullpen HR 1.00x (vulnerability 1.00, expected pen 3.0 IP)
P(no HR) = 33.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 70.0%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.95 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Patrick Sandoval): 0.0285 HR/BF Away SP (Reid Detmers): 0.0244 HR/BF
Zach Neto: 0.0414 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1862 lambda
Mike Trout: 0.0400 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1720 lambda
Wilyer Abreu: 0.0408 HR/PA x 4.2 PA = 0.1713 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.8% (17 batter lines used) edge = +22.5%

🔬 MODEL St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.1%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (55.5%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.508 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.14)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.559)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Landen Roupp pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 +0.4, xwOBA 0.299, HH% 28.7, mix SI/CU, n=2543)
Quinn Mathews pitch-quality 0.98x (RV/100 -0.0, xwOBA 0.281, HH% 37.7, mix FF/SL, n=492)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.99x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.93, expected pen 3.7 IP)
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.5%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Landen Roupp): 0.0177 HR/BF Away SP (Quinn Mathews): 0.0096 HR/BF
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
St. Louis Cardinals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	87.2	89.8	95.5	5	Curveball (45% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 37.5%, put-away 31.1%, xwOBA 0.224, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	68.4	69.3	73.0	5	Changeup (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.0%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	66.7	65.5	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	63.3	63.2	67.5	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	59.0	50.4	66.0	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.283, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	58.8	64.4	50.5	3	Slider (51% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 33.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	57.3	60.3	55.0	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	56.6	50.1	63.5	5	Split-Finger (30% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	56.1	58.6	52.5	6	Changeup (40% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	55.4	54.2	59.5	6	Slider (34% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	55.2	55.4	56.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	54.6	54.4	55.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	53.2	49.5	58.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.7%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	52.6	62.4	45.0	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.9%, put-away 19.0%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	50.6	42.7	59.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	50.0	46.3	55.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	49.2	37.5	59.5	6	Curveball (32% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	49.1	49.2	47.5	7	Slider (37% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 16.2%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	48.7	55.2	43.0	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	48.0	48.3	48.0	6	Changeup (37% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	47.8	47.9	47.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	47.6	43.6	51.0	6	Changeup (25% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	46.5	59.0	32.5	6	Changeup (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	46.4	43.5	47.5	5	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 13.5%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.0	46.3	37.5	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	42.8	46.2	37.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	32.7	43.2	16.5	4	Curveball (41% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.382, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Corbin Burnes	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	-	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	fallback+hand	season_pitcher_stats_missing, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	24.8%	4.2	4.5	4.5	70	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
AJ Smith-Shawver	Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	20.2%	4.3	4.4	5.0	72	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.4%
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.2%	5.7	5.7	5.7	96	normal	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	L	21.9%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	21.2%	4.1	5.0	4.8	69	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	24.4%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	18.1%	4.4	5.0	4.9	74	short	full	16.50	83.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	R	18.7%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees	R	17.2%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	24.4%	4.7	4.4	4.7	79	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.1%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.6%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	L	27.4%	6.6	5.8	6.0	111	deep	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	30.4%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	15.1%	6.4	6.5	6.5	107	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	R	34.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	95.50	4.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	23.6%	5.0	5.1	5.1	84	short	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	L	21.2%	5.9	5.7	5.7	99	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Colorado Rockies	R	31.4%	6.3	5.9	6.0	106	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros	R	21.3%	6.0	5.0	5.2	101	deep	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox	R	20.9%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	18.9%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.7%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Quinn Mathews	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	L	21.9%	4.8	4.9	5.2	80	short	full	66.00	34.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves	R	21.6%	5.8	5.2	5.3	97	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	21.0%	5.5	5.6	5.6	92	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Riley Cornelio	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	23.6%	1.7	-	4.9	28	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

10/10 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	19.9	2.4	13.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.36 <= 3 min
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	18.5	20.8	2.3	12.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.5% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.31 <= 3 min
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	19.7	2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.15 <= 3 min
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Under	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.15 <= 3 min
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	19.5	1.9	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.95 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	18.5	20.1	1.6	8.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.5	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.5	-0.9	5.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	19.8	2.3	13.1%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.29 <= 3 min

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

221 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Leonardo Bernal	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.74	1.62	0.56	0.56	2.89 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Teoscar Hernandez	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.57	1.45	0.62	0.51	2.34 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.52	1.41	0.55	0.55	2.52 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drake Baldwin	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.49	1.12	0.67	0.69	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.47	1.32	0.70	0.45	2.39 / Over	0.30	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Schwarber	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.46	0.99	0.79	0.67	2.05 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.45	1.21	0.62	0.62	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.43	1.02	0.73	0.69	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bobby Witt Jr.	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.43	1.14	0.76	0.53	2.19 / Over	0.30	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pete Alonso	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.41	1.08	0.69	0.64	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=145,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.40	1.06	0.73	0.61	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.40	1.01	0.80	0.59	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Oneil Cruz	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.40	1.00	0.67	0.73	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=81,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Aaron Judge	Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.37	0.94	0.71	0.71	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=59,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kevin McGonigle	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.36	1.16	0.76	0.43	2.25 / Over	0.30	season_games=139,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryce Harper	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.34	1.00	0.66	0.68	2.21 / Over	0.30	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.33	1.34	0.69	0.30	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=26,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan Jeffers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.32	0.94	0.61	0.77	2.19 / Over	0.30	season_games=80,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.32	1.07	0.61	0.64	2.47 / Over	0.35	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.31	1.29	0.51	0.50	2.12 / Over	0.30	season_games=136,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.30	1.10	0.56	0.63	2.51 / Over	0.35	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Fernando Tatis Jr.	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.30	1.15	0.59	0.56	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=142,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.29	1.08	0.55	0.66	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jeremy Pena	Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.28	1.28	0.50	0.50	2.28 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jackson Chourio	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.27	1.18	0.61	0.48	2.79 / Over	0.40	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, component_projection_diverges_from_current_model

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

MLB Intel Radar

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles game or team context update

Hayden Wesneski workload or role risk

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers game or team context update

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins game or team context update

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 7 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes