MLB Bets 2026-09-07

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	119W–81L–0P	60%	-0.93 u	Last 14 days • 200 settled
Grade A	12W–8L–0P	60%	+0.08 u
Grade B	107W–73L–0P	59%	-1.01 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3844W–2420L–8P	61%	-267.76 u	All-time • 6272 settled
Grade A	279W–220L–0P	56%	-12.34 u
Grade B	3563W–2191L–8P	62%	-248.98 u

184 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Chourio	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter H+R+RBI	Matthew Lugo	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Hits	George Springer	1.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Abimelec Ortiz	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-276	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-372	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Angel Genao	0.5	-423	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Angel Martinez	0.5	-588	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Austin Hedges	0.5	-456	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ben Malgeri	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Blaze Alexander	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-496	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-353	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Bryce Harper	0.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-403	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Christian Koss	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-224	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Colt Keith	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	David Fry	0.5	-382	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Drake Baldwin	0.5	-342	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Drew Gilbert	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Graham Pauley	0.5	-373	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ha-Seong Kim	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Hao-Yu Lee	0.5	-428	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Javier Sanoja	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-403	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Joe Mack	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-407	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jordan Lawlar	0.5	-327	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jose Ramirez	0.5	-279	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Joshua Baez	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Juan Soto	0.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-399	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Justin Crawford	0.5	-444	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kaelen Culpepper	0.5	-504	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-203	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kyle Isbel	0.5	-373	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber	0.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Lane Thomas	0.5	-229	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Luke Keaschall	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Matt Olson	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Matt Shaw	0.5	-438	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-465	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Max Clark	0.5	-377	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-630	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-351	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Miguel Rojas	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Myles Straw	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nate Furman	0.5	-404	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-750	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-289	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nick Morabito	0.5	-367	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-269	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Nolan Gorman	0.5	-308	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-329	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-494	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Pedro Ramirez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Petey Halpin	0.5	-589	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Rece Hinds	0.5	-355	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Shay Whitcomb	0.5	-378	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Thomas Saggese	0.5	-530	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Tim Tawa	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Tommy Edman	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Tyrone Taylor	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Batter Walks	Zach McKinstry	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Chase Burns	4.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	4.5	-117	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	K Prop	Jonah Tong	4.5	115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Brayan Bello	1.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Emmet Sheehan	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Jonah Tong	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Webb	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Robert Gasser	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Earned Run	Trevor Rogers	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Hits Allow	Noah Cameron	5.5	-106	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Brayan Bello	1.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Dylan Cease	1.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Jake Irvin	1.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Joe Ryan	0.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Joey Cantillo	1.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Matthew Boyd	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-07	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-06	K Prop	Aaron Nola	5.5	-117	-	LOSS	-1.000	Aaron Nola: 5.0 (line 5.5)
2026-09-06	K Prop	Payton Tolle	6.5	-153	-	WIN	+0.654	Payton Tolle: 12.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	633	55%	-25.88u	38	58%	+0.03u	298	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	541	57%	+5.18u	28	61%	+0.80u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	702	56%	-34.91u	71	52%	-8.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	476	62%	+0.03u	50	72%	+7.08u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	135	48%	-14.15u	6	50%	-0.45u	3	67%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 633, 14d N 38	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 541, 14d N 28	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 21 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 21/21 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 10 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 217 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 135, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 164 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 164 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 851 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 235 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 818 pitcher(s), 3638 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 602 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 21 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 22 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 11 team(s), 99 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 22 roster team(s), 308 hitter(s) \| 21 SP matchup(s), 935 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 99 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 6 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 22 team(s) \| Back-to-back: San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Athletics, Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, New York Mets
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 22 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 20 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 363 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 11/11 game(s) with pitching props \| K 23 line(s)/11 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/11 game(s); Hits Allowed 22 line(s)/11 game(s); Walks 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Earned Runs 21 line(s)/11 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 105, bovada_direct 4
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2414 market side(s) checked \| 2414 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 11 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 164 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 11 game(s) scored \| 2 above probability threshold \| 6 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 654 \| batter bats 718 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 50 \| batter pitch-type 602 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 185 batter(s) scored \| 11 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 1190 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	+153	-186	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	+113	-136	1.5 (-184)	-1.5 (+151)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+144	-175	1.5 (-144)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	-107	-112	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	+105	-126	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	-101	-120	-1.5 (+166)	1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+150	-182	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+117)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	+142	-172	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-206	+169	-1.5 (-122)	1.5 (+101)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Noah Cameron workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 75%Entities: Noah Cameron

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: velocity, short leash, opener
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Brayan Bello workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 74%Entities: Brayan Bello

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener, bulk pitcher
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 74%Entities: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 73%Entities: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Grayson Rodriguez workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 73%Entities: Grayson Rodriguez

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: opener
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Ranked Signals

3 Grade A | 96 Grade B | 771 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Juan Soto Over	MET@MAR	1:11 PM	0.5	0.9	-159	DK Over 0.5 -159 \| exact	79.1%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Kyle Schwarber Over	BRA@PHI	1:06 PM	0.5	0.9	-129	Caesars Over 0.5 -120 \| best price	74.3%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	👀 Watch Signal Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization	Batter Walks	Bryce Harper Over	BRA@PHI	1:06 PM	0.5	0.8	-123	Caesars Over 0.5 -115 \| best price	61.3%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (15 play(s))

Batter Total Bases - Hao-Yu Lee Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Caleb Durbin Under

Projection: 1.3Displayed: Under 1.5 +150Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150 | exactOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

K Prop - Logan Webb Over

Projection: 4.9Displayed: Over 4.5 -165Market line: majority 5.5 | avg 5.1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.1

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jonah Tong Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Jonah Heim Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter H+R+RBI - Francisco Alvarez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Gunnar Henderson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Pedro Ramirez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ryan Waldschmidt Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Moises Ballesteros Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tim Tawa Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Bryson Stott Under

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Under 1.5 -200Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jarren Duran Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jeff McNeil Over

Projection: 1.1Displayed: Over 0.5 +150Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Juan Soto Over 0.5 (-159) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -159

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
DK	0.5	-159	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+115	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

Sources found, but no material batter availability or role signal matched.

Intel Sources

Michael King - MLB News, Rumors, & Updates | FOX Sports Tier 3
Padres' Michael King can force Yankees to confront true cost of Juan Soto trade Juan Soto gave the Yankees exactly what they needed. He launched 41 home runs and helped take N

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.72
Base projection 0.72 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/92 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.72
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 23/47 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 47/92 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.72
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-129) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-129	-107	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-125	-115	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

Intel Sources

Atlanta Braves News - MLB | FOX Sports Tier 3
Zack Wheeler struck out nine in six sharp innings, Kyle Schwarber hit his MLB-leading 41st home run and the Philadelphia Phillies pulled within four games of the first-place Braves
Hunter Goodman - MLB News, Rumors, & Updates | FOX Sports Tier 3
Goodman has continued to provide plenty of power since the All-Star break, batting .254 with seven home runs and 18 RBI across 18 games. Through 108 contests this season, he's
Kyle Schwarber - Wikipedia Tier 3
On April 8, Schwarber hit a home ... 189 in 27 games. On September 16, 2022, Schwarber hit his 31st home run at the leadoff spot, breaking Jimmy R
Phillies Match Today: Confirmed Lineup, TV Channel, Live Stream And Preview For Labor Day Clash vs Braves Tier 3
Manager Rob Thomson has locked in his batting order for the series finale, prioritizing offensive power and contact at the top of the lineup. Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup:
MLB Showdowns: Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers in Spotlight - MyGameSim.com Tier 3
Philadelphia's Jesus Luzardo could be a game-changer, with predictions of 6.1 innings and 7.5 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is set to bring power to the lineup, with p

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/137 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/68 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 41/69 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 73/137 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.66
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

A Best Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-123) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-123	-112	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.964 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/143 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/71 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 37/72 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.74 | Day Batter Walks: 74/143 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 61.3% >= 37.5% and raw gap 0.31 >= 0.25

⚠ Market status WATCH: Batter Walks carries Good Add posture during V2 stabilization

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (96 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Chase Burns Over 4.5 (-116) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-108	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 49.7% vs 17% min; cushion +2.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Chase Burns: K/9 11.1, proj 6.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.4% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.279 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Slider: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, active roster 20.2%/14 hitters, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.58
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 2.24K, diff 49.7%, books 80%)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-154) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-180	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.4% / under 56.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joe Ryan Over 0.5 (-175) diff 128.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1416835602827735 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 128.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 10.5 outs/3.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .240 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.5%, L7 7.1%, season 9.1%, BVP 9.1%/88 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dylan Cease Over 1.5 (-171) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.1% / Under 40.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -171 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6710801949624035 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.7 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.1% / under 40.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-186) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -186 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.56392890636976 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 4.6 IP (BB% 11.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .136 | OPS .503
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 7.8%, L7 7.9%, season 9.8%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.9% (6/6); lineup K% 27.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 22/29 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-186); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jake Irvin Over 1.5 (-153) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1886834974979554 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.9%, L7 8.1%, season 9.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-170) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.015462528620503 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .203 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.5%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5%, BVP 13.2%/68 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (-150) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9262833332060085 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.4%, L7 11.2%, season 10.7%, BVP 8.1%/124 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Over 1.5 (-154) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 75%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
Noah Cameron is enjoying a strong second half, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his prior 53 2/3 innings. His strikeouts were low, with only 46 over 5
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Noah Cameron vs. ARI – Cameron’s switch to calling his own pitches has paid off, though I am still worried that his velocity has fallen to hover 92 mph instead of pushing 93/94 mph
Diamondbacks vs Royals Prediction for September 7: Under Smart Bet? - TheSpread.com Tier 3
Cabrera has 24 major league innings in total. Rookies in that range work on a short leash, and Arizona has little reason to stretch one out the day before its retu
Royals turn to Noah Cameron against surging Diamondbacks | Yardbarker Tier 3
Left-hander Noah Cameron (9-8, 4.08 ERA) is set to take the ball for the Royals (64-80) in the opener of a three-game series with the D-backs (76-68). Cameron was
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Noah Cameron vs.

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7906120405187695 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Brayan Bello Under 1.5 (-136) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2905795444758488 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.0 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brayan Bello: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .275 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2%, top-6 25.0%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 11.4%, L7 5.4%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.7%/45 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.0% (6/6); lineup K% 24.4% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (-167) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-167	+125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.04 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (6/6); lineup K% 17.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-150) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 5.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Brayan Bello Over 1.5 (-139) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 74%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
Brayan Bello lines up to pitch on Labor Day, and based on his second-half performance, the Red Sox will use him in a bulk reliever capacity.
Red Sox Announce Unusual Brayan Bello Decision Before Angels Series Opener - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
The Boston Red Sox have an unusual plan for Brayan Bello entering Monday's series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, with the right-hander expected to work either
Red Sox Announce Unusual Brayan Bello Decision Before Angels Series Opener Tier 3
The Boston Red Sox have an unusual plan for Brayan Bello entering Monday’s series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, with the right-hander expected to work as a starter
Brayan Bello to start Monday - Brayan Bello News | FantasyPros Tier 3
The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello against the Angels on Monday. (Peter Abraham) ... Bello had been pitching behind an opener.
Red Sox Have Major Opportunity Waiting In Three-Game Angels Series | NESN Tier 3
Brayan Bello is now likely to pitch Monday’s series opener as the Red Sox return to Fenway Park with a four-game winning streak and a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.90 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 5.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brayan Bello: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .275 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2%, top-6 25.0%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 25.0% (6/6); lineup K% 24.4% (8/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.30 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Over 1.5 (-163) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 3.75)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.0% / under 42.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .136 | OPS .503
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 24.9% (6/6); lineup K% 27.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-163); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — George Springer Under 1.5 (-265) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/36 (36%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 41/51 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 85/111 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.92

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 79 play(s) (B 79)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-589) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -589 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -589

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -589 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+383	-589	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.09
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 62/68 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/36 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-589) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Shay Whitcomb Under 0.5 (-378) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.10
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 29/31 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter Walks: 15/17 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.10

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-378) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-500) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 47/52 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 23/26 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-588) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -588 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -588

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -588 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+383	-588	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Heavy juice (-588); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Rece Hinds Under 0.5 (-355) diff 81.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+244	-355	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.07
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/14 (93%) | Season 13/14 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-355) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-500) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/88 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter Walks: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 76/88 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/124 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter Walks: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 105/124 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-750) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-327) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/28 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter Walks: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-327) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-433) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/22 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-367) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.11 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/9 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-367) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-475) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/90 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/44 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter Walks: 77/90 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-475) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 105/130 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 105/130 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-403) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+274	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 116/141 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 62/75 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 54/66 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 116/141 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-403); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-630) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.7% / Under 81.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+404	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .641
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/137 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 60/70 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 119/137 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-630); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-404) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-404) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/134 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 115/134 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-399) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -399 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -399

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -399 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+272	-399	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 106/131 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 106/131 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-399) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-335) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/63 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 24/32 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+303	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 14/16 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-428) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+290	-428	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/98 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 81/98 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-428); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-425) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/127 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 106/127 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-373) diff 67.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/84 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 71/84 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-373) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-465) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -465

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -465 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+312	-465	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 10 PA | 6/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/135 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 107/135 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-465) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-373) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 44/51 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/27 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 21/24 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-373) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-351) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -351 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -351 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-351	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-351) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-425) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/92 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 76/92 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-496) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -496

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -496 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+330	-496	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/137 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 108/137 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-496) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-396) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/132 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/64 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 101/132 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-396); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-400) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.14
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 121/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 121/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-423) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+286	-423	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/17 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 21/28 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-423); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-530) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -530

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+350	-530	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 30/40 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/19 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 14/21 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 30/40 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-530) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-405) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-405	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 29/39 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/20 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 12/19 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 29/39 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-405) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 (-391) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 39/47 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 19/22 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-391) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-407) diff 60.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+277	-407	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/119 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 93/119 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-407) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-422) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 104/126 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/66 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 104/126 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-504) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -504 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -504

Selected market: Over 21.6% / Under 78.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -504 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+335	-504	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/14 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 19/25 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-504) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-353) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -353 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-353	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/137 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 106/137 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-353); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-456) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -456

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -456 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+306	-456	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 53/70 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/39 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 23/31 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 53/70 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-456) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-417) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -417 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+283	-417	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 111/135 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 111/135 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-417); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-362) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -362

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+249	-362	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/91 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 75/91 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-362) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-377) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+258	-377	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 26/33 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 15/21 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 26/33 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-377); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Shaw Under 0.5 (-438) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -438

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+296	-438	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/65 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/32 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 23/33 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 49/65 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-438) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-372) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/143 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 97/143 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-372) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-494) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -494

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	-
DK	0.5	+329	-494	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 106/143 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 53/71 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 106/143 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-494); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-444) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -444

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -444 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+299	-444	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/132 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 110/132 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-444) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/65 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/35 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 25/30 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-240) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+170	-235	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-361) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 94/126 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 94/126 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-308) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -308 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -308 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+215	-308	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 49/73 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 21/35 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 49/73 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-308) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-275) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -275 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+194	-275	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 109/137 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 109/137 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-265) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/87 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 64/87 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-265) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-404) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -404 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/140 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 46/69 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 102/140 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-404) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-267) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+188	-267	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/75 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/39 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 27/36 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 57/75 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-267) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-284) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 107/130 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 107/130 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-300) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 31/44 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/22 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 14/22 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-256) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 50/66 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/35 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 50/66 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-230) diff 51.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/91 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/48 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 35/43 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 74/91 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-230); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-403) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -403

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -403 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+275	-403	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 35/42 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 13/18 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter Walks: 35/42 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Heavy juice (-403); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-329) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 112/140 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 112/140 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-329); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — David Fry Under 0.5 (-382) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -382 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+261	-382	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/80 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/43 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 27/37 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 53/80 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-382); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-271) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+190	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/137 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/68 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 96/137 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-425) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 42/52 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/27 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 20/25 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-433) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-433); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-269) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-269	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/134 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/68 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 47/66 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 98/134 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-269) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+272	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/135 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 51/72 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 106/135 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-393) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -393 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+268	-393	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 103/141 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 103/141 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-393); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-224) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+160	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 6 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/115 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 90/115 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-224); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-261) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 27 PA | 5/27 | HR 1 | K% 29.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .518
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/143 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 46/71 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 94/143 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-261); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-203) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -203

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -203 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	-
DK	0.5	+145	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/123 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/62 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 84/123 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-203) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-281) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -281 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -281 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/134 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 93/134 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Heavy juice (-281); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-257) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+182	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 75/107 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-257) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-279) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.804
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 67/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51

⚠ Heavy juice (-279); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-229) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 29 PA | 10/26 | HR 4 | K% 20.7% | BB% 10.3% | OPS 1.371
BVP walk adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

⚠ Heavy juice (-229); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-289) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -265; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+189	-265	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+203	-289	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/104 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 69/104 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-289) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-342) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -342

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -342 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+236	-342	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/120 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/63 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 80/120 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-342); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-240) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+170	-240	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/137 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 49/65 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 102/137 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-240); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-275) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-276) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -276 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/136 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/67 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 50/69 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 100/136 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-276); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Matthew Lugo Under 1.5 (-152) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/5 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-155) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.341 (62 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 67/109 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -155 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (771 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 22 play(s) (A 2 | B 3 | C 17)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 3.5 (-148) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+112	Recommended
BetRivers	3.5	-148	+112	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 75%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
Noah Cameron is enjoying a strong second half, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his prior 53 2/3 innings. His strikeouts were low, with only 46 over 5
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Noah Cameron vs. ARI – Cameron’s switch to calling his own pitches has paid off, though I am still worried that his velocity has fallen to hover 92 mph instead of pushing 93/94 mph
Diamondbacks vs Royals Prediction for September 7: Under Smart Bet? - TheSpread.com Tier 3
Cabrera has 24 major league innings in total. Rookies in that range work on a short leash, and Arizona has little reason to stretch one out the day before its retu
Royals turn to Noah Cameron against surging Diamondbacks | Yardbarker Tier 3
Left-hander Noah Cameron (9-8, 4.08 ERA) is set to take the ball for the Royals (64-80) in the opener of a three-game series with the D-backs (76-68). Cameron was
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Noah Cameron vs.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Noah Cameron: K/9 7.5, proj 4.8K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Lance Barksdale — 8.4 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 23.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 58%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 15.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.9% (9/9); 9/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.11
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Matchup — posture note at B

⚠ K final QC: top-six opp K% 15.2%, full-lineup opp K% 18.9%, 9/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -148 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.30K, diff 37.0%, books 83%)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake K Prop — Brayan Bello Under 4.5 (-137) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 4.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 4.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetOnline	4.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	4.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+108	-137	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 74%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Monday: Look to Rogers in Labor Day slate - ESPN Tier 2
Brayan Bello lines up to pitch on Labor Day, and based on his second-half performance, the Red Sox will use him in a bulk reliever capacity.
Red Sox Announce Unusual Brayan Bello Decision Before Angels Series Opener - Yahoo Sports Tier 3
The Boston Red Sox have an unusual plan for Brayan Bello entering Monday's series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, with the right-hander expected to work either
Red Sox Announce Unusual Brayan Bello Decision Before Angels Series Opener Tier 3
The Boston Red Sox have an unusual plan for Brayan Bello entering Monday’s series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, with the right-hander expected to work as a starter
Brayan Bello to start Monday - Brayan Bello News | FantasyPros Tier 3
The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello against the Angels on Monday. (Peter Abraham) ... Bello had been pitching behind an opener.
Red Sox Have Major Opportunity Waiting In Three-Game Angels Series | NESN Tier 3
Brayan Bello is now likely to pitch Monday’s series opener as the Red Sox return to Fenway Park with a four-game winning streak and a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 23.6% vs 17% min; cushion -1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Brayan Bello: K/9 6.0, proj 3.4K over 4.2 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Cutter (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Wegner — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 19.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Brayan Bello: 45 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .275 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.9%, L7 26.6%, season 25.2%, top-6 25.0%, BVP 22.2%/45 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Angels 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.3%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 25.0% (6/6); lineup K% 24.4% (8/9); 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.18
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 (+108) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 29.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.2, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Slider (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, active roster 19.7%/14 hitters, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 17.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 56%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 17.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
K% trend: support +5.2 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 22.1%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-103) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	-101	-128	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-130	-
DK	7.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+100	-128	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.8K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.2, proj 8.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 33.4% | put-away% 24.5% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Changeup (50% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, active roster 22.1%/14 hitters, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Athletics 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 22%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.1% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 8.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-138) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-145	+111	-
BetRivers	5.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-138	+108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Joey Cantillo: K/9 9.3, proj 5.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Guccione — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 28 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 21.4% | AVG .136 | OPS .503
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.0%, L7 25.8%, season 24.5%, top-6 24.9%, BVP 14.3%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; Baltimore Orioles 9/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 6/6; weighted K% 27.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 23%; L7 team K% 25.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 24.9% (6/6); lineup K% 27.5% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Joe Ryan Over 3.5 (-109) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-110	-118	-
DK	3.5	-109	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 67.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Joe Ryan: K/9 9.2, proj 5.9K over 5.1 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 10.5 outs/3.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .240 | OPS .712
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 88 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, active roster 23.2%/14 hitters, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Detroit Tigers 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 29.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 19/23 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: headwind -6.1 ppts (recent 20.3% vs season 26.4%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 (-113) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.0% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mark Wegner — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.000
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 20.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Boston Red Sox 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 33%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.9% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 26.3% vs season 20.7%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs RHP — neutral | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jonah Tong Under 4.5 (+106) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	-
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	4.5	-117	-114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-136	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.93K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jonah Tong: K/9 7.7, proj 3.6K over 4.4 IP (default 5.8 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 11.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 37.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jonah Tong: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .523
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/12 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Miami Marlins 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.0%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 35%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.8% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 (-117) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.3 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	-
DK	4.5	-117	-109	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Nick Pivetta: K/9 10.9, proj 5.3K over 4.1 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); outs market 13.0 outs/4.3 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.4% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.212 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, active roster 23.6%/14 hitters, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Washington Nationals 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.6% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 (+113) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 +116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 7.3 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 +116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	7.5	+116	-155	Recommended
DK	7.5	+113	-145	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 16.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.2% / under 55.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.7, proj 8.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .281 | OPS .805
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 159 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 7.5 (+115) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 8.7K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 16.4% vs 17% min; cushion +1.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.7, proj 8.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: Sweeper (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .281 | OPS .805
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 159 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.2%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 67%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 25.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/28 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.0%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (+111) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	3.5	+104	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	-
DK	3.5	+111	-141	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	3.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.8% / under 55.2%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Grant Holmes: K/9 6.3, proj 4.0K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.3% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .203 | OPS .699
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 68 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 80%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.85
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.9 ppts (recent 12.6% vs season 18.5%, proj adj -3.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 5.5 (-147) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	5.5	-117	-114	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.72K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Eury Perez: K/9 9.3, proj 6.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.4% | put-away% 18.9% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 62 PA | K% 27.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .667
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 27.4%/62 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; New York Mets 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 24.1%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 34%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Over 4.5 (-165) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.1 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-165	+129	Selected
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); DK LOWER delta -0.75
Logan Webb: K/9 7.0, proj 4.9K over 5.6 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Changeup (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, active roster 21.8%/14 hitters, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; St. Louis Cardinals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 38%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.8% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.76
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-135	+105	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	Recommended
DK	4.5	-140	+109	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
BetRivers	5.5	+125	-167	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 9.1, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Guccione — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.027
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 46%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 17.7% (6/6); lineup K% 17.5% (9/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
K% trend: support +6.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 21.9%, proj adj +3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 4.5 (+116) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+116	-148	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jake Irvin: K/9 9.3, proj 4.8K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.350 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Curveball: 30.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8%, active roster 24.0%/14 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Supports Bet; San Diego Padres 7/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 49%; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 24.0% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (+110) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	3.5	+115	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.6, proj 3.7K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.352 | top pitch: Changeup (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.9%/13 hitters, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; San Francisco Giants 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 27%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.9% (13 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.78
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Under 4.5 (-131) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+215	-350	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+103	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.5% / under 53.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.9, proj 4.3K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Sweeper: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.7%/14 hitters, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.82
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emmet Sheehan Over 6.5 (+109) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+109	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Emmet Sheehan: K/9 10.6, proj 6.6K over 4.6 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.6% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3%, active roster 25.5%/13 hitters (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 25.5% (13 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 4.5 (+120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+120	-154	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.8% / under 57.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Troy Melton: K/9 7.1, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.6% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Slider (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Edwin Moscoso — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Minnesota Twins 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Confirmed Lineup; low data quality; split coverage 47%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.94
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 (-170) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -170

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	4.5	+126	-164	-
DK	4.5	+132	-170	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.6% / under 59.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 32.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 124 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.4%/14 hitters, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Milwaukee Brewers 6/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 5/6; weighted K% 21.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 59%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 18.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (+115) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.2, proj 4.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, active roster 22.7%/14 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 73%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.7% (14 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 11/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/18 (39%) | Season 7/18 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.5 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 18.7%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 13 play(s) (A 1 | C 12)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-182) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -182 | exact

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 73%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/6 & 9/7 & 9/8 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Grayson Rodriguez @ BOS – I wonder if GrayRod will ever figure out a breaker/cutter that works.
Angels shut out by Pirates despite complete game from Walbert Ureña - Los Angeles Times Tier 3
Up next for Angels: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4-6, 6.03 ERA) starts against the Red Sox on Monday night in the opener of a three-game series in Boston.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Box Score, Summary, and Team Stats - September 6, 2026 Gametracker - CBS Sports Tier 2
Angels: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4-6, 6.03 ERA) starts against the Red Sox on Monday night in the opener of a three-game series in Boston.
Paul Skenes ends seven-start winless drought, Henry Davis homers in Pirates' 1-0 victory over Angels - Newsday Tier 3
Angels: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4-6, 6.03 ERA) starts against the Red Sox on Monday night in the opener of a three-game series in Boston.
Skenes throws 5 1/3 scoreless for first win since July 19 Tier 3
Angels: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4-6, 6.03 ERA) starts against the Red Sox on Monday night in the opener of a three-game series in Boston.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6888773125575838 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.8 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 20.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.4%, L7 8.6%, season 8.5%, BVP 0.0%/20 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.9% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-105) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.928666643315787 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 11.5%, L7 12.5%, season 9.9%, BVP 0.0%/21 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jonah Tong Over 1.5 (-204) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 62.8% / Under 37.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7790223414534545 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.8% / under 37.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jonah Tong: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .523
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/12 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.0%, L7 8.7%, season 9.2%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/3 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72760904142197 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.9 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .281 | OPS .805
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.2%, L7 7.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 8.2%/159 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/28 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Under 1.5 (-189) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3003974120860056 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.8% / under 61.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Over 1.5 (-178) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6951226586954717 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 8.4%, L7 10.0%, season 7.3%, BVP 22.2%/18 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-191) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -191 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.191827358393925 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.1 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.6% / under 61.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 62 PA | K% 27.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 27.4%/62 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 6.7%, L7 8.5%, season 8.5%, BVP 8.1%/62 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 (-142) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6362843539190943 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.6 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, L7 25.1%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, L7 10.3%, season 9.6% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (+174) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6327693228858706 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 13.0 outs/4.3 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 34.2% / under 65.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.4%, L7 10.6%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5801035182069696 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-190) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3714804621313146 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 5.2 IP (BB% 11.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 7.7%, L7 8.3%, season 7.4%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Under 1.5 (-177) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4439244600262569 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.4 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.2% / under 59.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 11.4%/35 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (6/6); lineup K% 17.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robert Gasser Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5517386894034755 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 10.4%, L7 11.3%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.3%/41 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 121 play(s) (A 9 | B 4 | C 108)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 20.5% / Under 79.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.07
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 62/67 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter Walks: 27/29 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter Walks: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment, Availability — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-750) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Eli White Under 0.5 (-500) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.12
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 83/94 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/39 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter Walks: 83/94 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment, Availability — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-399) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -399 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -399

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -399 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+272	-399	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 40/48 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/24 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 20/24 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-399); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-550) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .879
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/98 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 75/98 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment, Availability — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-550) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/100 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 78/100 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-321) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 17/20 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.25

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-321); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-368) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -368 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+253	-368	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/88 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 67/88 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-368); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-280) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/79 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/38 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 57/79 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-262) diff 29.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 96/136 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/66 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 49/70 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 96/136 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Model Edge, Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-262); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-297) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/138 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 45/69 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 93/138 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-217) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/140 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/68 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 85/140 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-145) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+105	-145	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/85 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/43 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 29/42 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 55/85 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+107	-143	-
DK	0.5	+100	-138	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/139 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/69 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 31/70 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 62/139 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-115) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
DK	0.5	-115	-120	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/118 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 34/60 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 64/118 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-450) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/141 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 107/141 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-350) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/84 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 30/42 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 64/84 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-348) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -348 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+240	-348	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 34/46 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/26 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 34/46 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-336) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+232	-336	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/108 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 90/108 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-259) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+183	-259	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-461) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+309	-461	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/126 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 101/126 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-494) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -494

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+329	-494	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 71/86 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/41 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 40/45 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 71/86 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-347) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-347	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 111/143 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 111/143 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-209) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -209; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+154	-209	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+149	-209	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 27/36 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/16 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 17/20 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 27/36 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-306) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+214	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/25 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/12 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 9/13 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 18/25 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-424) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/79 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/37 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 33/42 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 60/79 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-283) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 26 PA | 6/23 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .694
BVP walk adjustment: 1.11x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/141 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/71 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 102/141 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-386) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -386 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+264	-386	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/92 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 34/45 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 71/92 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-302) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 32/48 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/23 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 14/25 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+134) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+127	-170	-
DK	0.5	+134	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.72
Base projection 0.72 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 61/124 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.72
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/64 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 61/124 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-214) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 88/132 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/68 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/64 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 88/132 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Roman Anthony Over 0.5 (-105) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 19/38 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/17 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 11/21 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-338) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -338

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -338 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+234	-338	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 10/14 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 10/12 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 20/26 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-377) diff 39.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+258	-377	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.41x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/127 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 103/127 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-304) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 73/105 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-368) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 81/117 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-266) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	-
DK	0.5	+188	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/126 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 95/126 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-393) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+268	-393	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 40/58 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/28 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 15/30 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (-450) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/5 (100%) | L20 5/5 (100%) | Season 5/5 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Juan Brito Under 0.5 (-277) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 14/19 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Freeland Under 0.5 (-247) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+175	-247	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/78 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/41 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 57/78 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-336) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+232	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dustin Harris Under 0.5 (-400) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -400 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+272	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 6/10 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 14/17 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 20/27 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-190) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-215) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-329) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -329 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 106/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/70 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 106/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-423) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+286	-423	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/133 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/67 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 96/133 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-247) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/93 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/49 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 72/93 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Turner Hill Under 0.5 (-266) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Away Batter Walks: 7/10 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 10/18 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-301) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/68 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 45/72 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 93/140 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-295) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -295 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+207	-295	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/106 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 79/106 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-258) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 89/117 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/117 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-263) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+182	-250	-
DK	0.5	+186	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/122 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 37/64 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 71/122 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-272) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 21.1% | OPS .902
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/96 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 67/96 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-347) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+240	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/92 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/45 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 69/92 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-150) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+115	-152	-
DK	0.5	+108	-150	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 88/144 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/69 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/75 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 88/144 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-279) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 76/109 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-314) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+219	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 90/143 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 41/72 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 90/143 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-251) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/101 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/101 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 (+155) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.44x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 30/86 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 13/41 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 30/86 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.44

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Jorge Under 0.5 (-350) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+129) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/144 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/72 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 30/72 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 56/144 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (+171) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+171	-241	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/143 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/72 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 25/71 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 50/143 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-323) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -323

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+224	-323	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/6 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-309) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -309 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+215	-309	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 101/138 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 101/138 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+162) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +162

Selected market: Over 35.5% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+162	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/139 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/70 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 28/69 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 55/139 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-328) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -328 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+227	-328	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 32/48 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 74/101 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-204) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+146	-204	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-299) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+209	-299	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 80/119 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-269) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 86/123 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 86/123 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-306) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/74 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/37 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 25/37 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 54/74 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+168) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +168

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/136 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/66 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/70 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 51/136 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — B.J. Murray Jr. Under 0.5 (-450) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+104) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/129 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 29/68 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 59/129 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-234) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/141 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 41/69 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 83/141 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-288) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/143 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/74 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 93/143 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-211) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+151	-211	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/113 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 70/113 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-234) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.73x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .819
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/133 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/70 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 37/63 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 74/133 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-160) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+116	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-322) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+223	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/136 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 47/65 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 95/136 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+112) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+112	-155	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 54/115 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-162) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/98 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/47 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 31/51 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 53/98 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-252) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-252	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 34/52 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 69/110 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-147) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
DK	0.5	+106	-147	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 84/133 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 41/68 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 84/133 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-260) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	-
DK	0.5	+183	-260	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/88 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/43 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 63/88 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+116) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +116

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+116	-160	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/70 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 26/68 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 61/138 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-228) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+162	-228	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/144 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 89/144 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-215) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/140 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/70 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 40/70 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 82/140 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-190) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/58 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/34 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 14/24 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-281) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/79 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/41 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 19/38 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 42/79 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-189) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+136	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/91 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 32/47 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 64/91 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-184) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+133	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/138 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 95/138 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-175) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+126	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/131 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/67 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 32/64 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 77/131 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (+132) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 63/129 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/64 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 63/129 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-163) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+118	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/76 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/38 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 24/38 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 52/76 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-180) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+130	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/138 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 40/68 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 88/138 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-261) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/138 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/67 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 42/71 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 75/138 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-236) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+168	-236	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/125 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/67 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 74/125 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-181) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -181 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+130	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/106 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/51 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 67/106 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-349) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -349

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -349 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+241	-349	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.56 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/9 under 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+178) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 21/58 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/31 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-274) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+193	-274	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/142 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/71 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 39/71 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 79/142 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-248) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+176	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/134 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/69 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 45/65 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 81/134 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-213) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-195	-
DK	0.5	+152	-213	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 28/44 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 58/97 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-225) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 44/79 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/37 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 24/42 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 44/79 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (+131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+131	-183	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 21/65 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/32 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 9/33 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 21/65 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (+142) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.3% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+142	-198	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/25 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 3/11 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 5/14 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 8/25 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-170) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
DK	0.5	+122	-170	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/126 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/64 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/126 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-228) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/101 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 34/47 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 70/101 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 0.5 (+137) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+137	-192	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 37/90 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/46 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 37/90 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-261) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/141 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/70 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 94/141 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+151) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.44x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.825
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 30/100 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/52 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 14/48 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 30/100 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.36

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-201) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+144	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 91/136 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/66 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 91/136 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+113) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+113	-157	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/135 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/69 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 27/66 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 58/135 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-210) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/91 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 32/44 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 62/91 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mickey Gasper Over 0.5 (+120) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-167	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/52 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 9/26 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 9/26 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 18/52 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-168) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/124 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/124 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 (+121) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 40/129 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/64 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 40/129 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Over 0.5 (+128) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+128	-178	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 37/111 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/60 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 16/51 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 37/111 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 (+165) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/84 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 12/37 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 24/47 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 36/84 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-191) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 92/136 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 46/70 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 92/136 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 162 play(s) (A 8 | B 27 | C 127)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-136) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.440 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/133 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 62/133 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-135) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-135	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 41/58 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter HRR: 68/113 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (-136) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/97 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 47/97 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.514 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-145) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.317 (87 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/134 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01 | Away Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 61/134 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (-124) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/134 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 61/134 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (-112) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.378 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/127 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/65 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 50/127 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-146) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/139 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 61/139 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-129) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.445 (96 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 72/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-111) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.409, xSLG 0.593 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 71/138 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-124) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.409, xSLG 0.521 (93 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.964 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/143 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 77/143 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-138) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.456 (99 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/137 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 65/137 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-151) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-151	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.393 (74 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/135 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/64 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 76/135 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-109) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.689 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/100 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 45/100 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-121) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.377 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/85 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 15/42 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 35/85 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.518 (91 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/141 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 74/141 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-130) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/131 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 40/71 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 68/131 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-127) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/138 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 68/138 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-134) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.186, xSLG 0.259 (73 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 86/140 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/71 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 86/140 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-123) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+101	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.383, xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.804
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-125) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.409 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-140) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 71/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 71/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Story Over 1.5 (-118) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.254 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 24/48 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/24 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Eli White Under 1.5 (-144) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.324 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/94 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/39 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter HRR: 69/94 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-115) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/137 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 37/68 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 70/137 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Moore Under 1.5 (-172) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 17/20 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/12 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 17/20 under 1.5 (85%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-113) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.422 (81 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/136 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 63/136 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-103) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.256 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/104 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 42/104 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-160) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/129 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/65 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 61/129 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Under 1.5 (-166) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.498 (24 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/98 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/45 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter HRR: 67/98 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-117) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/134 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 70/134 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 (+118) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.85 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.452 (81 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/125 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/67 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 19/58 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 45/125 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Under 1.5 (-139) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.349 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/88 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/47 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 30/41 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter HRR: 62/88 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Alexander Over 1.5 (-107) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.350 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 38/91 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 17/43 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter HRR: 38/91 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 1.5 (-141) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.496 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 34/52 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter HRR: 16/25 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+111) diff 109.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 109.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 3.17
Base projection 3.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/6 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-110) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 48/69 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.83 | Day Batter HRR: 87/140 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-132) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/143 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 44/71 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 81/143 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-117) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.400 (85 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/133 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/70 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 78/133 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-118) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Base projection 2.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.421 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/144 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/72 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 85/144 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-145) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-140	+107	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/144 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 40/75 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 80/144 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-110) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/144 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 79/144 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-113) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.392 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/132 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 71/132 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+103) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/143 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/74 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 75/143 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-105) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/124 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/64 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 74/124 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shay Whitcomb Under 1.5 (-178) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 27/31 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/14 under 1.5 (86%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter HRR: 15/17 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter HRR: 27/31 under 1.5 (87%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-113) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.217, xSLG 0.276 (63 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/126 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 72/126 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-107) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.477 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/92 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 45/92 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+113) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.524 (38 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/120 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/63 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 72/120 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-104) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.454, xSLG 0.586 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-118) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 7/11 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 9/14 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 16/25 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Under 1.5 (-162) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.184, xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/130 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/65 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter HRR: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 97/130 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-104) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/141 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.49 | Day Batter HRR: 75/141 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-108) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.461 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/129 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 60/129 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-138) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 69/129 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 69/129 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Turner Hill Over 1.5 (+100) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/18 (50%) | Season 9/18 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 4/10 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 9/18 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+124) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.548, xSLG 1.002 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 16/42 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/18 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 11/24 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 16/42 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-101) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/79 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/41 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.59 | Away Batter HRR: 15/38 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 39/79 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-104) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.362, xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/98 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/47 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 51/98 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-108) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/137 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 76/137 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-130) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 69/140 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 69/140 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+123) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.178, xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Away Batter HRR: 8/16 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 10/22 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-108) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	Recommended
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 31/66 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/35 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 14/31 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 31/66 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-117) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/143 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 70/143 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+104) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.510 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/137 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 64/137 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-116) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/84 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/37 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 44/84 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-117) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 60/132 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 60/132 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (+110) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.51
Base projection 2.51 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/118 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 64/118 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+105) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.553 (32 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/90 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 26/44 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 47/90 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-131) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.187, xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 46/63 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/31 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter HRR: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter HRR: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+110) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+110	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.518 (61 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/137 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 37/70 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 69/137 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (-109) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.196 (64 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-106) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/126 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 58/126 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-136) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 52/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-113) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/122 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 60/122 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-132) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 42/68 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 71/138 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-129) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/139 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 65/139 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Malgeri Under 1.5 (-179) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 34/44 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/22 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter HRR: 16/22 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter HRR: 34/44 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Cavanaugh Under 1.5 (-170) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 0.96
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.386, xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 35/46 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/26 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter HRR: 15/20 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter HRR: 35/46 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+120) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 36/79 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/41 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 20/38 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 36/79 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-118) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.419 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/141 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 66/141 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/12 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 4/13 over 1.5 (31%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 10/25 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eduardo Valencia Over 1.5 (+100) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 14/29 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/13 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.92 | Away Batter HRR: 5/16 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter HRR: 14/29 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+114) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.375 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 27 PA | 5/27 | HR 1 | K% 29.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .518
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 79/143 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/72 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 79/143 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (+115) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.358 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/28 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 17/30 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-102) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/141 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/75 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 33/66 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 63/141 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-114) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.411 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/45 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 18/41 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-127) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.170, xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/138 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 42/71 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 73/138 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+105) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.459 (44 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/142 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/71 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 67/142 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+120) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.451 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/128 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 56/128 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.449 (72 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 65/137 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/70 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter HRR: 65/137 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-106) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.258 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/136 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 60/136 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-131) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/138 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 37/70 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 69/138 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+130) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/14 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 11/25 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-109) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/136 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 68/136 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.409 (83 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 64/143 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/72 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 64/143 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+119) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.364 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/135 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 60/135 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.73

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-110) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/106 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 47/106 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+118) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.384 (59 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 10 PA | 6/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/135 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 70/135 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (-109) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.172, xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 25/52 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/26 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 8/26 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+120) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.371, xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/131 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 58/131 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.421 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+108) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.400 (52 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/107 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 52/107 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-165) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/40 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 13/20 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 12/20 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 25/40 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-169) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 82/136 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter HRR: 82/136 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+123) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/93 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 19/44 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 49/93 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Under 2.5 (-140) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+106	-140	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/123 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 43/61 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 76/123 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+116) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.218, xSLG 0.304 (33 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-105) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.275 (40 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/143 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 72/143 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 48/115 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+108) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.347 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 22/48 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/23 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 12/25 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/136 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/71 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 38/65 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 77/136 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+122) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 15/33 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 5/12 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 15/33 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Roman Anthony Over 1.5 (-140) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.316 (20 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/38 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/17 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 10/21 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter HRR: 18/38 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-105) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 21.1% | OPS .902
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/96 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/45 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 44/96 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-173) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.337 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/132 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/67 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 41/65 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 79/132 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+107) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.402 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 27/76 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/38 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 11/38 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter HRR: 27/76 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Campusano Over 1.5 (+108) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 27/58 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/31 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 11/27 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Under 1.5 (-174) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/45 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter HRR: 54/92 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (+101) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-125	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.299 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/134 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 61/134 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Charles McAdoo Under 1.5 (-161) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 10/14 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter HRR: 7/12 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 17/26 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 1.5 (-154) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.234 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/75 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/39 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 26/36 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter HRR: 46/75 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-152) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 33/65 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 16/32 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 17/33 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-157) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+115) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-165	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.356, xSLG 0.533 (52 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter HRR: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 45/106 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+100) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Under 1.5 (-146) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.37
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.266 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 82/119 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 82/119 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Under 1.5 (-134) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.402 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/98 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/44 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter HRR: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 60/98 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/143 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 71/143 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — John Rave Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/36 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 6/16 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 6/20 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter HRR: 12/36 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.33

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-128) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 68/140 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 68/140 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 (-121) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 43/63 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter HRR: 74/117 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.113, xSLG 0.140 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 40/100 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 16/48 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 40/100 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dustin Harris Under 1.5 (-166) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 8/10 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter HRR: 10/17 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 18/27 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 (+124) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	-
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.65 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.475, xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/141 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/70 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 26/71 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 49/141 over 2.5 (35%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.334 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyrone Taylor Under 1.5 (-155) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.404 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/88 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/46 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 31/42 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/88 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-128) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/87 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/41 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter HRR: 59/87 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Under 1.5 (-136) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 35/58 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/34 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 15/24 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.321 (15 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 23/65 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 12/35 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter HRR: 11/30 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 23/65 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 1.5 (-109) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.169, xSLG 0.220 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 28/47 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 17/25 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter HRR: 11/22 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Under 1.5 (-150) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.199, xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/79 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/37 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 30/42 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter HRR: 50/79 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.300, xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/135 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 62/135 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-169) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.210 (89 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/123 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/63 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter HRR: 34/60 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 79/123 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-165) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/50 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-148) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/127 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 79/127 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-126) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.280 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/126 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/66 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 48/126 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.298 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/91 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/47 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter HRR: 27/44 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 60/91 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Under 1.5 (-177) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 27/40 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +2.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 14/19 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter HRR: 13/21 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 27/40 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-129) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/91 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/44 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter HRR: 52/91 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+128	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.488 (64 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.825
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 36/100 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 16/48 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 36/100 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.406 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter HRR: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Under 1.5 (-156) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/17 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 7/11 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter HRR: 16/28 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.164, xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/136 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/66 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 58/136 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-174) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/124 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 38/65 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 77/124 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-168) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.465 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/70 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 40/68 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 85/138 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Lawlar Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.545, xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 11/28 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 9/16 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 2/12 over 1.5 (17%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter HRR: 11/28 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+126) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.431, xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/79 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/37 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 17/42 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter HRR: 35/79 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Under 1.5 (-156) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/84 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/46 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter HRR: 28/38 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter HRR: 59/84 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 9 play(s) (B 1 | C 8)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-135) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 20.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.9% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/16 (44%) | Season 7/16 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-105) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Irvin Under 5.5 (-148) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-148	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.51, BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (+109) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+109	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/27 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-157) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Troy Melton Under 5.5 (-164) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-164	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.15, BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-122) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 (+125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-165	+115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (6/6); lineup K% 17.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Over 5.5 (+110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 9 play(s) (B 5 | C 4)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-251) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.260 (76 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/129 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/65 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 47/64 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 95/129 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-215) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+160	-215	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.285 (97 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/33 (33%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/123 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 48/61 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 90/123 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-264) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Recommended
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.21 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.186 (73 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/140 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/71 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter Hits: 47/69 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 90/140 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-225) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.475 (28 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 101/141 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 52/71 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 101/141 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-222) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Recommended
DK	1.5	+165	-222	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.340 (81 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/125 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 89/125 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-266) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+195	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.275)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.273 (75 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 6/34 (18%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/140 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter Hits: 51/69 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 102/140 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-238) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+176	-238	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322 (93 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/143 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 53/72 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 47/71 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 100/143 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-239) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Recommended
DK	1.5	+177	-239	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267 (62 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/45 (27%) | L5 6/23 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/109 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 78/109 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-235) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-285	+210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+174	-235	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.318)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.313 (74 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/36 (28%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/135 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/64 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter Hits: 49/71 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 83/135 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 217 play(s) (B 8 | C 189 | D 20)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 0.5 (+160) diff 246.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 246.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.518 (61 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/137 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/67 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 48/70 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 96/137 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.88

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 246% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+160) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.524 (38 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/120 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/63 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 38/57 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 84/120 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.78

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (+150) diff 219.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.510 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/137 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/72 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 46/65 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 93/137 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.58

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (+160) diff 182.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (49 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 55/104 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Under 1.5 (-197) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/98 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/44 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 72/98 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+123) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 57/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (+150) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/136 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/66 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 48/70 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 92/136 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Trevor Story Under 1.5 (-180) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 32/48 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 16/24 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 0.5 (+160) diff 296.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-197	+144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 296.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/6 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 296% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 268.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 9/16 over 0.5 (56%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 13/22 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.95

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-160) diff 261.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 261.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 1.002 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 24/42 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/18 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 15/24 over 0.5 (62%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 24/42 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 262% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eduardo Valencia Over 0.5 (+160) diff 243.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 243.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/13 over 0.5 (69%), avg 2.77 | Away Batter TB: 8/16 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 17/29 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.83

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 244% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ethan Salas Over 0.5 (-135) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 0/3 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+170) diff 236.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 236.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 27 PA | 5/27 | HR 1 | K% 29.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .518
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 99/143 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/72 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 49/71 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.99 | Day Batter TB: 99/143 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.97

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 236% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (+150) diff 228.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 8/13 over 0.5 (62%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 15/25 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-162) diff 227.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 1/13 | HR 0 | K% 21.4% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .220
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/129 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/64 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 40/65 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 78/129 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 0.5 (+140) diff 224.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 37/60 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 2.04

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyren Paris Over 0.5 (-112) diff 224.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (+160) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Jorge Over 0.5 (+100) diff 219.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (+200) diff 210.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/14 over 0.5 (79%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 8/11 over 0.5 (73%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 19/25 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.64

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+200) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 31.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-109) diff 208.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 (+160) diff 206.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (72 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 86/137 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/70 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 41/67 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 86/137 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (+150) diff 205.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (83 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/143 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/72 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 82/143 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (+170) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/131 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 37/64 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 71/131 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.58

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+180) diff 203.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.459 (44 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 91/142 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 45/71 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 91/142 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+160) diff 202.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/59 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 66/115 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-121) diff 193.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.488 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 8 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS 1.825
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/100 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 31/48 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 60/100 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 194% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 190.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 58/110 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (+170) diff 181.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.575 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 6 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 61/115 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (+170) diff 181.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/93 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/49 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 25/44 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 61/93 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (+160) diff 180.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 90/136 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 44/65 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 90/136 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (+180) diff 180.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 180.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/58 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/31 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 12/27 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 180.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (+170) diff 179.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 20/33 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 13/21 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 20/33 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+190) diff 179.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/128 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/66 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 36/62 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 68/128 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (+180) diff 178.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.384 (59 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 10 PA | 6/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 91/135 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 48/67 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 91/135 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 178.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (+150) diff 176.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/76 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/38 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/38 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 41/76 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (+180) diff 176.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 16/36 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/16 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 9/20 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 16/36 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (+170) diff 172.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/58 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 66/113 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 172.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-140) diff 170.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 71/108 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (+200) diff 166.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 49/79 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/41 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 25/38 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 49/79 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 (+170) diff 164.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/16 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 3/12 over 0.5 (25%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter TB: 13/28 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-150) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.533 (52 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/106 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 58/106 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 158.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (52 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (-197) diff 154.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-200	+151	-
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Away Batter TB: 6/10 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 10/18 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 154.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (+190) diff 153.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 60/101 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 153.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (+190) diff 152.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.221 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 76/140 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/68 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 38/72 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 76/140 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-161) diff 152.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/129 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/64 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 33/65 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 71/129 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 152.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (+200) diff 147.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/137 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/72 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 82/137 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (+190) diff 147.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/84 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/46 over 0.5 (41%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 23/38 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 42/84 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-147) diff 147.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/94 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 52/94 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (+190) diff 144.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/117 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.14 | Away Batter TB: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 64/117 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (+180) diff 138.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 65/108 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 138.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (+200) diff 136.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 33/58 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/28 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 23/30 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-179) diff 136.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (33 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 62/105 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (+170) diff 134.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 6/11 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 16/28 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 134.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (+180) diff 130.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 51/79 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/37 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 24/42 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 51/79 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyrone Taylor Over 0.5 (+150) diff 130.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 39/88 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/46 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 18/42 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 39/88 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (+200) diff 130.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 130.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/92 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 52/92 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 130.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 130.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (+190) diff 129.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 129.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.373 (59 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 26 PA | 6/23 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .694
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/141 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 34/71 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter TB: 75/141 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 129.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 129.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (+220) diff 128.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 128.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 54/119 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 128.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 128.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 0.5 (-170) diff 127.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/40 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 8/19 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter TB: 10/21 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 18/40 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (+190) diff 127.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.210 (89 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/123 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 65/123 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (+170) diff 127.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	-
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/101 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/50 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 61/101 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (+190) diff 126.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.344 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/92 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/46 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 30/46 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 59/92 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+170) diff 125.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-205	+150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.299 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/134 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/69 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 84/134 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 125.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (+180) diff 124.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 124.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 19/45 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 124.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 124.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.62 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 122.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/79 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/37 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 14/42 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter TB: 35/79 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 122.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.321 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 30/65 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/35 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 13/30 over 0.5 (43%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 30/65 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (+170) diff 120.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 28/48 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/23 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 16/25 over 0.5 (64%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 28/48 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 120.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 120.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (+230) diff 119.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.331 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/91 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/45 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 48/91 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 119.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+190) diff 119.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/70 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 70/138 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-193) diff 119.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.234 (28 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/75 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/39 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 19/36 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 43/75 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 119.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+170) diff 118.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/136 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/66 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 75/136 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 118.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oswald Peraza Over 0.5 (-135) diff 116.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.580 (17 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 51/114 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 116.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (+200) diff 116.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/124 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter TB: 66/124 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 116.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+170) diff 114.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/135 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/69 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter TB: 42/66 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 77/135 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (+190) diff 111.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/92 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 26/45 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 54/92 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (+160) diff 109.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 109.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.97
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.349 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/88 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 22/41 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 42/88 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 109.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 109.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (+170) diff 108.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 108.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/91 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/44 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 22/47 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 46/91 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 108.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 108.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Moore Over 0.5 (-150) diff 108.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+118	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 108.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/12 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 108.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 108.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (+170) diff 107.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/91 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter TB: 24/44 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 42/91 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 107.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (+190) diff 105.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 22/40 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter TB: 22/40 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 105.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (+170) diff 105.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-179	+137	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 57/119 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 105.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-115) diff 100.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (69 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 65/127 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/64 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 65/127 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 100.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.50 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 100.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.50 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (+200) diff 98.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/132 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/67 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter TB: 39/65 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 75/132 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 98.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Shaw Over 0.5 (+220) diff 94.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 27/65 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/32 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 10/33 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 27/65 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (+160) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/14 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 8/12 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 14/26 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (+190) diff 87.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/136 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/70 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 70/136 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 0.5 (+180) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.07
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.230 (25 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 29 PA | 10/26 | HR 4 | K% 20.7% | BB% 10.3% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 31/65 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.92 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dustin Harris Over 0.5 (-157) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.85
Base projection 0.85 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: Curveball sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 4/10 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter TB: 10/17 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 14/27 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (+200) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/108 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 57/108 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (+240) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/126 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 33/64 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 71/126 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 83.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 (+220) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (57 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/73 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/38 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 18/35 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 37/73 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (+230) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 24/52 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/26 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 13/26 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 24/52 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eli White Over 0.5 (+170) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/94 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/39 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter TB: 38/94 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 66.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+109) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.731 (66 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/131 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 56/131 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-130) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.369 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 33/86 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/41 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/45 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter TB: 33/86 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-375) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.079 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 30/39 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/20 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter TB: 15/19 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter TB: 30/39 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (+200) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 18/46 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/26 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter TB: 8/20 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter TB: 18/46 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matthew Lugo Under 0.5 (+127) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 +127

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/5 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 (+180) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 17/44 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/22 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter TB: 10/22 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter TB: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-114) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.452 (81 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/125 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/67 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 57/125 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Graham Pauley Over 0.5 (+300) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 19/51 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/27 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-207) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.83
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 51/63 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/31 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/32 under 1.5 (88%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter TB: 51/63 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adam Frazier Over 0.5 (-149) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (7 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 20/60 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 9/30 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter TB: 11/30 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter TB: 20/60 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (+200) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.78 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/9 over 0.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+117) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.20
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/144 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01 | Day Batter TB: 72/144 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-300) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/16 (81%) | Season 13/16 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter TB: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+100) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 43/109 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+117) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (96 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/140 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 57/140 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+110) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	Recommended
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/144 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 35/75 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 66/144 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+110) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (99 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/137 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter TB: 27/69 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 59/137 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-110) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/141 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 61/141 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Under 1.5 (-278) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -278

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.439 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/95 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/48 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 38/47 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter TB: 71/95 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	+107	-145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.33 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/9 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 1.5 (-165) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.220 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 34/47 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/25 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter TB: 13/22 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 34/47 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 (-130) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/31 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 2/14 over 0.5 (14%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 5/17 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter TB: 7/31 over 0.5 (23%), avg 0.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+143) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/71 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter TB: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+137) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.593 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/138 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 52/138 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Under 1.5 (+160) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.98
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/117 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 51/63 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 91/117 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+134) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+113) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.440 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/133 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 22/68 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 50/133 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+121) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (93 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.964 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/143 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 62/143 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+130) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/144 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/72 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 62/144 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Fry Over 0.5 (-120) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-111	-116	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/80 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/43 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter TB: 10/37 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 23/80 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 65/143 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/72 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 38/71 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 65/143 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Under 1.5 (-189) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	-170	+128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/87 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/41 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 35/46 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 65/87 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Alexander Under 1.5 (-199) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/91 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 30/43 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 62/91 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+132) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/143 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/74 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 59/143 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-180) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 36/92 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 16/47 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 36/92 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-131) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/129 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 82/129 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-190) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/98 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 42/98 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+108) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/129 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 58/129 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+155) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (85 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/133 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 54/133 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+139) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.514 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 42/114 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.38

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+180) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 59/140 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 27/70 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 59/140 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (+116) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/97 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 18/44 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 38/97 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (87 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/134 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/67 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 48/134 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+112) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (74 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/135 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 64/135 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-185) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/127 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 91/127 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-174) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 86/134 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 86/134 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Under 1.5 (-173) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (47 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/126 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/66 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 76/126 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (+180) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/130 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter TB: 25/65 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.83 | Day Batter TB: 45/130 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-164) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/139 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/69 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 49/70 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 93/139 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+128) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.276 (63 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/126 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 57/126 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+115) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 42/106 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+142) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.392 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/132 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 59/132 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-130) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/123 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 58/123 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+137) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/141 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/72 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 56/141 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+112) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/140 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 57/140 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+121) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 50/132 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/64 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 50/132 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+142) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+142	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.586 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/124 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/64 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 47/124 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+118) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 (-166) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (40 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/143 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/72 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 43/71 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 85/143 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-162) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 42/69 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 87/140 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (-187) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.140 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 30/48 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 62/100 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Under 1.5 (+150) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 21.1% | OPS .902
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/96 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/45 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 65/96 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+120) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/126 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 51/126 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (+140) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/143 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/71 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 87/143 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 50/131 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/60 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 30/71 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 50/131 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-151) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 46/65 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/32 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 22/33 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 29/85 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 13/42 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 29/85 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (91 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/141 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/72 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 50/141 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 (+240) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 22/67 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/38 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter TB: 10/29 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter TB: 22/67 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-135) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/60 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 66/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+117) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.259 (73 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/140 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 64/140 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+155) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/120 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 55/120 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/79 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/41 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 12/38 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 33/79 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-200) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.553 (32 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/90 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 15/44 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 35/90 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+113) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/70 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 61/138 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 (-189) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -189 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/84 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/37 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 35/47 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 57/84 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (+170) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +170

Selected market: Over 65.0% / Under 35.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (81 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 88/136 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/67 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 88/136 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/122 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 56/122 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-153) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/138 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/67 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 42/71 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 85/138 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/138 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/70 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/68 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 51/138 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+146) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.689 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/100 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/53 over 1.5 (26%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 31/100 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.37

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-200) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/136 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/66 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 45/70 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 87/136 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+155) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.390 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 18/49 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 11/21 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter TB: 7/28 over 1.5 (25%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-181) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 93/141 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 53/75 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 40/66 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 93/141 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-166) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	Recommended
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/134 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/68 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 43/66 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 87/134 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-182) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.419 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 91/141 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 45/70 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 91/141 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 31/86 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 14/41 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 31/86 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/139 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/70 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 25/69 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/139 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+139) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-197) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 42/66 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/35 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 19/31 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 42/66 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Under 1.5 (-181) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+128	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 70/106 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-204) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.196 (64 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 17 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/52 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+141) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/68 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 54/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/138 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/68 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 55/138 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-191) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 92/143 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 46/72 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 92/143 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (+142) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 18/52 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/26 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 6/26 over 1.5 (23%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Roman Anthony Over 1.5 (-240) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 66.4% / Under 33.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.316 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 14/38 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 7/17 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 7/21 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 14/38 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/69 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 53/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+161) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+161	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 6/11 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 7/14 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 13/25 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-147) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	Recommended
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.804
BVP production adjustment: 1.11x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (+150) diff 189.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/135 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/63 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/72 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 75/135 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Samuel Basallo Over 0.5 (+190) diff 167.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/101 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 54/101 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (+104) diff 139.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Away Batter TB: 4/11 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 11/20 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-130) diff 121.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/103 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 51/103 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 (+150) diff 114.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/127 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 40/68 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 72/127 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (+260) diff 114.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/88 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/43 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 24/45 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 47/88 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Over 0.5 (+170) diff 99.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗!!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.88
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.496 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 25/52 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/27 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 12/25 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter TB: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Over 0.5 (+150) diff 99.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 99.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 33/58 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/34 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 14/24 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 99.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (+230) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-114	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.06
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/126 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 66/126 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 0.5 (+190) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.91 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 16/32 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 10/16 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 6/16 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter TB: 16/32 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 82.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-115) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 38/74 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 21/37 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 38/74 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (+260) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.95
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.188 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/70 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/39 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.82 | Away Batter TB: 17/31 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 37/70 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (+109) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 37/74 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.16 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/36 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 15/38 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter TB: 37/74 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (+100) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.87
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/127 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/62 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter TB: 27/65 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 52/127 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 65.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Edwin Arroyo Over 0.5 (-112) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.78
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 26/50 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 12/24 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter TB: 14/26 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.85 | Day Batter TB: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alex Freeland Over 0.5 (+112) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.377 (22 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/78 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/41 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 17/37 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter TB: 31/78 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (+260) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 26/68 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/36 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter TB: 13/32 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter TB: 26/68 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Rece Hinds Over 0.5 (+110) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	+110	-150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: williamhill_us (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Day Batter TB: 5/14 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (+300) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/133 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/66 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 36/67 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter TB: 64/133 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (+103) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.270 (21 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 31/86 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 13/40 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter TB: 18/46 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter TB: 31/86 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

▸ Batter HR — 185 play(s) (B 12 | C 173)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0380
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.529 (22 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/79 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/41 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 37/38 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 76/79 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0500
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 19/20 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.254 (15 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 45/48 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 23/24 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Roman Anthony Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.316 (20 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 35/38 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 35/38 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0795
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.349 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/88 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 38/41 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 81/88 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0882
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.258 (42 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 125/136 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 125/136 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.689 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/100 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 91/100 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1294
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/85 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 76/85 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Mickey Gasper Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.246 (23 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/52 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/26 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.586 (45 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/124 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 105/124 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.593 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/138 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 116/138 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1643
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (96 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 120/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0075
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 132/133 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/66 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 66/67 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Day Batter HR: 132/133 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 97.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 97.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0149
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.299 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 9 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 132/134 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 132/134 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0152
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.337 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/132 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/67 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 130/132 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 96.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0141
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Cutter sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 66/67 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/38 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 29/29 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 66/67 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0229
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (35 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/130 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 63/65 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 127/130 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 95.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0208
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (23 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 47/48 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 22/23 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 47/48 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.079 (11 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 11 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .455
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 39/39 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 19/19 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 39/39 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (16 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 25/25 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/11 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/9 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/16 (100%) | Season 16/16 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Day Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (16 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 46/46 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/26 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 20/20 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 46/46 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Graham Pauley Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0392
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (21 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 49/51 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/27 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 22/24 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 49/51 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0426
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.220 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 45/47 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 24/25 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 45/47 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Petey Halpin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0441
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.118 (16 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 66/68 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/36 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 31/32 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 66/68 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0500
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.235 (18 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 38/40 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 19/20 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 38/40 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 91.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0440
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (29 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/91 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/48 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 41/43 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 87/91 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0385
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.496 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 50/52 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 25/25 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 90.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0444
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (74 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 129/135 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/64 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 129/135 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0517
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 55/58 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 29/30 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0620
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.301 (76 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 121/129 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/65 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 121/129 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0630
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (60 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 13 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 7.7% | BB% 23.1% | OPS .761
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0549
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.274 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/91 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 86/91 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0567
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.419 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 133/141 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 133/141 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0606
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 31/33 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 20/21 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 31/33 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0643
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.333 (75 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 131/140 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 131/140 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0676
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.357 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/74 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/37 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 69/74 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.253 (15 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 50/52 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 25/26 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 50/52 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0635
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.248 (22 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 59/63 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/31 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0635
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (47 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 118/126 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/66 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 118/126 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0615
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.321 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 61/65 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/35 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 27/30 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0794
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (41 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 116/126 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 116/126 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0672
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.320 (76 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/134 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 59/64 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 125/134 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0676
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.188 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 65/70 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/39 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 28/31 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 65/70 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0647
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.330 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 130/139 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 130/139 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0682
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 42/44 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 21/22 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 19 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 21.1% | OPS .902
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/96 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 90/96 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0682
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.341 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/88 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/45 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 82/88 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0652
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 129/138 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/70 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 129/138 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.437 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .100
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 117/126 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 117/126 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.259 (73 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/140 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 130/140 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0672
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 111/119 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 111/119 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eli White Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0638
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.324 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/94 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/39 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 88/94 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (33 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/101 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 94/101 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Sweeper sample thin (5 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 26/28 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/17 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 10/11 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 26/28 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0709
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.378 (79 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/127 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 119/127 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 24/26 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/14 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 24/26 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0684
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.290 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 4 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/117 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 109/117 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.298 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/91 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 84/91 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0687
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Shaw Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 60/65 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/32 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0703
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 119/128 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 119/128 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0735
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.379 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 126/136 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/66 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 126/136 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0978
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.344 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (26 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/98 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/44 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 90/98 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/135 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/69 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 123/135 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.334 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/101 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 46/47 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 93/101 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0815
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.384 (59 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 10 PA | 6/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 124/135 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 124/135 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0673
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (49 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0806
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 115/124 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 115/124 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0809
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.193 (37 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 125/136 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 125/136 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.230 (25 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 29 PA | 10/26 | HR 4 | K% 20.7% | BB% 10.3% | OPS 1.371
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/117 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 106/117 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0956
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/136 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 68/70 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 123/136 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0926
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.394 (40 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/108 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 98/108 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 82/92 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 41/45 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/92 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/84 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 37/38 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 78/84 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.224 (32 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 52/58 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 28/34 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 24/24 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/117 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 106/117 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0949
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.277 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 125/137 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 61/65 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 125/137 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.573 (29 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 60/66 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/35 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 27/31 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1014
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.158 (38 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/138 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 124/138 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0952
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.407 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 11 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 36.4% | OPS 1.117
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 76/84 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 76/84 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1135
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.373 (59 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 26 PA | 6/23 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 11.5% | OPS .694
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 26 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/141 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 127/141 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: Changeup sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 37/40 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 18/19 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 19/21 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 37/40 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1266
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.660 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 69/79 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/37 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 36/42 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 69/79 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0943
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.533 (52 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/106 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 96/106 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/9 (89%) | L20 8/9 (89%) | Season 8/9 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.11 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/9 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1233
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.257 (57 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 0/9 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 64/73 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/38 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 32/35 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 64/73 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1138
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.210 (89 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 109/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1159
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (70 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1103
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (81 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/136 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/67 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 65/69 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 122/136 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.413 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.804
BVP production adjustment: 1.11x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1399
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (43 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 127/143 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 66/72 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 127/143 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1119
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (66 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 128/143 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 128/143 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/25 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/14 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 8/11 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 22/25 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-700) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1231
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.433 (39 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 57/65 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 30/33 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1061
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.392 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.133
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 118/132 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 118/132 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1135
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.518 (91 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 11 PA | 4/11 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 127/141 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/72 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 127/141 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1168
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.510 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/137 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 67/72 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 122/137 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-900) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1562
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.304 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 27/32 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 13/16 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 14/16 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 27/32 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1469
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (40 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 23 PA | 5/22 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 4.3% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/143 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/72 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 123/143 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1413
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/92 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/45 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 79/92 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.266 (18 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 51/58 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 26/31 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 25/27 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/88 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 77/88 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0965
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.514 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.422 (44 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1319
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.331 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/91 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/45 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 79/91 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1232
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.159
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 122/138 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 122/138 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1122
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.498 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brayan Bello contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Brayan Bello: 24 PA | 7/22 | HR 1 | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .879
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/98 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 87/98 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1268
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.459 (44 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 124/142 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 64/71 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 124/142 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.140 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/52 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1241
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (72 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/137 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 122/137 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1314
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.575 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 121/137 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 121/137 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 72.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1418
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 123/141 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 69/75 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 54/66 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 123/141 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1278
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.400 (85 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 14 PA | 5/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 118/133 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 54/63 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 118/133 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1357
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.490 (78 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/140 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 122/140 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: Slider sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 32/36 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 14/16 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 18/20 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 32/36 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1475
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.372 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/122 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 106/122 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1375
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 68/79 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 30/37 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 38/42 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 68/79 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1134
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.395 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.221 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Joe Ryan: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 47.1% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .753
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/140 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 62/72 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 119/140 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (83 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 123/143 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/72 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 123/143 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-900) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1698
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (56 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1407
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (75 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/135 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 63/72 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 116/135 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.690 (12 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 24/28 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 12/12 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 24/28 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1679
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.330 (71 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 115/137 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 115/137 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1469
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.436 (93 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 124/143 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 124/143 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1828
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (32 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/93 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 76/93 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1642
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.345 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 114/134 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 58/66 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 114/134 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1752
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.518 (61 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .641
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 115/137 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 115/137 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2206
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/136 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/65 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 108/136 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.17 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/6 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1772
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.358 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 66/79 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/41 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 31/38 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 66/79 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1418
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.690 (28 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 125/141 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 125/141 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1683
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.406 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/101 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 85/101 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1702
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 123/141 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 58/69 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 123/141 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1778
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.553 (32 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/90 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/46 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 36/44 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 76/90 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/140 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 119/140 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1418
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (87 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/134 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/67 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 115/134 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1833
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.524 (38 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/120 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/120 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1360
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.452 (81 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Derek Law: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 109/125 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 109/125 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 14.5% / Under 85.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1531
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/98 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 83/98 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.575 (41 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 6 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-600) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1789
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (97 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/123 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/123 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.409 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jonah Tong: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/106 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 90/106 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1709
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.278 (31 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jake Irvin: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1860
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.411 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .425
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/86 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 71/86 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.276 (63 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .762 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/126 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/126 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1855
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/124 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 102/124 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.548 (59 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 2 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.429 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/126 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 104/126 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1871
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.350 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.237 (34 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Irvin contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 115/139 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/70 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 115/139 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1985
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.519 (67 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/131 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 110/131 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1909
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1913
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 61.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1970
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/132 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 109/132 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-500) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2029
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.451 (86 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 111/138 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 111/138 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1974
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.402 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 62/76 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 29/38 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 33/38 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 62/76 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Joe Ryan contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 24/29 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 8/13 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter HR: 16/16 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 24/29 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 21/25 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 11/12 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 10/13 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter HR: 21/25 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-600) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2542
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.212 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.490 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Pivetta contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Nick Pivetta: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 1.002 (20 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 34/42 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 16/18 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 18/24 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 34/42 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.515 (58 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 112/140 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 112/140 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-400) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2256
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.279 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (72 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Chase Burns: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/129 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 101/129 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1888
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.521 (93 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.964 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 117/143 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/71 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 117/143 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1654
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.450 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.15x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.440 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Derek Law contact suppression 0, HR vulnerability 100 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 112/133 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 112/133 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1927
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.127
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jonah Tong contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2168
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 114/143 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/74 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 114/143 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2587
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (58 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 27 PA | 5/27 | HR 1 | K% 29.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .518
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/143 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 109/143 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-650) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2292
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.536 (62 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 112/144 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 112/144 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-550) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2500
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/92 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/45 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 71/92 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-600) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2431
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.352 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.416 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 112/144 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/69 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 59/75 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 112/144 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-600) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2778
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.421 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 111/144 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 111/144 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3182
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Away Batter HR: 12/16 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter HR: 17/22 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3066
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.456 (99 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .905
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/137 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter HR: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 102/137 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 17.5 (-219) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -219

Selected market: Over 64.4% / Under 35.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-230	+160	-
Caesars	17.5	-218	+158	-
DK	17.5	-219	+163	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-205	+148	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-230	+160	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-215	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 20.482 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 17.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.76 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.4% / under 35.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 7.8%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.2%/49 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.80 | Season Avg 18.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+124) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	18.5	+125	-175	-
DK	18.5	+124	-165	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+128	-174	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.078999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.96 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .281 | OPS .805
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.2%, L7 7.3%, season 7.7%, BVP 8.2%/159 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.90 | Season Avg 18.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Under 17.5 (-137) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	+105	-137	-
DK	17.5	+103	-137	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	+100	-136	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.222 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.4%, L7 11.2%, season 10.7%, BVP 8.1%/124 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (-140) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.287 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.38 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.8%, split 10.4%, L7 11.3%, season 10.7% (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.80 | Season Avg 17.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+121) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +121

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-161	+121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-160	+122	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-180	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.849999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.00 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.7% / under 42.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.4% | AVG .310 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 19.0%, season 21.3%, top-6 17.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 9.4%, L7 6.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 11.4%/35 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 17.7% (6/6); lineup K% 17.5% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 16.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Under 17.5 (+136) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +136

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-176	+132	-
DK	17.5	-182	+136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-180	+134	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-185	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.866 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.83 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 80)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 80
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.5%, L7 6.3%, season 8.3%, BVP 5.4%/37 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 6/25 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-103) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	17.5	-110	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	+105	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-103	-128	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.850999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.08 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 9.1%, L7 7.1%, season 8.8% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 17.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-137) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-132	-102	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-137	+103	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.676 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.06 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.8%, L7 9.0%, season 8.5%, BVP 2.2%/46 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.06
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jonah Tong Over 1.5 (-168) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -168 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-168	+126	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 4.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 3.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jonah Tong: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .182 | OPS .523
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 18.5%, L7 20.8%, season 21.7%, top-6 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/12 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.9% (6/6); lineup K% 23.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/3 (33%) | L10 1/3 (33%) | L20 1/3 (33%) | Season 1/3 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.33 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/3 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Joe Ryan Over 1.5 (+108) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.70 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.62, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 10.5 outs/3.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Joe Ryan: 88 PA | K% 33.0% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .240 | OPS .712
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 22.3%, L7 29.1%, season 22.9%, BVP 33.0%/88 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chase Burns Over 1.5 (-121) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.22 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.43, ERA 3.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 12.0 outs/4.0 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Chase Burns: 21 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .238 | OPS .619
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 20.6%, BVP 23.8%/21 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-160) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.55 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.96, ERA 2.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 159 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .281 | OPS .805
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.9%, L7 25.6%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 24.5%/159 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 21.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-133) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.51, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 68 PA | K% 20.6% | BB% 13.2% | AVG .203 | OPS .699
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.9%, L7 18.5%, season 22.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 20.6%/68 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (6/6); lineup K% 19.3% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Over 2.5 (+104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.38, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 124 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .268 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.7%, L7 23.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 19.4%/124 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Under 2.5 (-169) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 3:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.06, ERA 2.81)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Troy Melton: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .302 | OPS 1.092
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.5%, L7 19.1%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.1%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.1% (6/6); lineup K% 19.8% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (+100) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.26, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 18 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 22.2% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.346
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 19.9%, L7 21.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 16.7%/18 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Under 2.5 (-173) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Eury Pérez: 62 PA | K% 27.4% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .196 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 22.6%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 27.4%/62 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (6/6); lineup K% 23.4% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-130) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.08 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 5.20)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .350 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.3%, L7 22.7%, season 21.4%, top-6 20.9%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.9% (6/6); lineup K% 21.1% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: -7% run env ✗ Over

⚠ Game Script: Below-average run environment (0.93x) — headwind for Over | Away pen fresh (0.96x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Over 2.5 (-128) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.66, ERA 5.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Irvin: 11 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 27.3% | AVG .250 | OPS .705
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.6%, L7 24.2%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 (-105) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres | Start: 5:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.52 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.00, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 13.0 outs/4.3 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Pivetta: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .448
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 21.4%, L7 25.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (-112) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.27 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 2.76, ERA 2.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 49 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .680
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 18.0%, L7 24.5%, season 22.6%, BVP 30.6%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Under 2.5 (-172) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -172 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.48 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 4.77)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.8% / under 59.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 41 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .237 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 22.3%, L7 17.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.9%/41 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Over 2.5 (-110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics | Start: 10:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 5.00, ERA 3.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .320 | OPS 1.010
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 16.6%, L7 17.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Under 2.5 (-115) Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.91 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.08, ERA 3.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Noah Cameron: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .200 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.1%, split 15.3%, L7 23.8%, season 19.4%, top-6 15.2% (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 15.2% (6/6); lineup K% 18.9% (9/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-173) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -173 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.23 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 5.08)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.7% / under 59.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .257 | OPS .640
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 20.4%, L7 21.8%, season 20.8%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+668) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +668

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.343 (raw=1.712, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.385)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Trevor Rogers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.303, HH% 37.8, mix FF/CH, n=2336)
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.5, mix FF/CU, n=2459)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.379, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Baltimore Orioles lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.429, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Baltimore Orioles bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.4 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 26.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 61.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Trevor Rogers): 0.0258 HR/BF Away SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0264 HR/BF
Pete Alonso: 0.0573 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.2464 lambda
Coby Mayo: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1652 lambda
Jo Adell: 0.0355 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1524 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.4% (14 batter lines used) edge = +13.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+668) edge 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +668

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.343 (raw=1.712, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.385)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Trevor Rogers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.303, HH% 37.8, mix FF/CH, n=2336)
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.5, mix FF/CU, n=2459)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.379, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Baltimore Orioles lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.429, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Baltimore Orioles bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.4 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 26.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 61.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Trevor Rogers): 0.0258 HR/BF Away SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0264 HR/BF
Pete Alonso: 0.0573 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.2464 lambda
Coby Mayo: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1652 lambda
Jo Adell: 0.0355 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1524 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.4% (14 batter lines used) edge = +13.7%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (+820) edge 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 +820

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.500 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.496)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.313, HH% 38.4, mix FF/CH, n=2513)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Arizona Diamondbacks lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.382, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 1.05x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.3 IP)
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.3% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 79 F Wind-out: 0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0241 HR/BF Away SP (Derek Law): 0.0280 HR/BF
Ketel Marte: 0.0447 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1923 lambda
Carter Jensen: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1861 lambda
Nolan Arenado: 0.0411 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1642 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.4% (16 batter lines used) edge = +11.9%

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (+820) edge 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 +820

Signal Breakdown: ✓––!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.500 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.496)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.313, HH% 38.4, mix FF/CH, n=2513)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Arizona Diamondbacks lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.382, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 1.05x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.3 IP)
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.3% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 79 F Wind-out: 0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0241 HR/BF Away SP (Derek Law): 0.0280 HR/BF
Ketel Marte: 0.0447 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1923 lambda
Carter Jensen: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1861 lambda
Nolan Arenado: 0.0411 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1642 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.4% (16 batter lines used) edge = +11.9%

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-121) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -121

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 6 books | 7.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7	-115	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Caesars	7	-120	-	-
DK	7	-121	-	Selected
LowVig	7	-113	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-121	-	-
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+102	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	+102	-	-
Fanatics	7.5	+105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+110	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
Camden Yards (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 98)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 94 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 0.96
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-106) edge 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 8 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -106

Own-line consensus: 11 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 11 books | 8 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 8 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	8	-125	-	Recommended
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-112	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-106	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	-
Fanatics	8.5	-105	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-109	-	-
MyBookie	8.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 103)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 4.5 4.5 (-108) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) | Start: 2:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 4.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 4.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	4.5	-113	-107	-
BetUS	4.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	4.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-120	Selected
MyBookie	4.5	-105	-117	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 5.0 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.33
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.38
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 103)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 49.3% (7 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Cincinnati Reds (+120) edge 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 9:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars +130 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +120

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars +130 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kyle Hurt (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Chase Burns xFIP 3.43
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-121	52.3%	70.1%	+17.8%	$+28.05	11	Bet on DK
C	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-106	49.1%	66.2%	+17.0%	$+28.60	11	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles (Total) +17.8%

[INJ] Austin Peterson (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Trevor Rogers (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
Camden Yards (PITCHER, run factor 0.96)
Baltimore Orioles confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 99 (team 98)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 94 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 0.96
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +17.0%

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 103)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.10
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	9:11 PM	F5 ML	Cincinnati Reds	DK	+120	42.9%	53.1%	+10.3%	$+16.90	8	Bet on DK
C	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5)	2:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 4.5	FanDuel	-108	48.8%	57.7%	+9.0%	$+11.20	6	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Cincinnati Reds — Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +10.3%

[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Kyle Hurt (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Chase Burns xFIP 3.43
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Chase Burns (RHP)

C Over 4.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (F5) (F5 Total) +9.0%

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Bryse Wilson (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 5.0 runs vs line 4.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL)
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.33
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.38
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 103)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 131 blended 50% (team 107)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.18
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

1:06 PM · decision fi-b27e7949ad1875b8

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.6%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -113

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-1.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.4%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +105

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jesús Luzardo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grant Holmes / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrant Holmes / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-113	-117	49.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

1:11 PM · decision fi-ba7c8cec11136791

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -103

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jonah Tong · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jonah Tong / Eury Pérez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJonah Tong / Eury Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

1:36 PM · decision fi-72f2324ad8ccc42e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -125

Raw Edge

-4.6%

Effective Edge

-5.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +115

Raw Edge

+2.5%

Effective Edge

+2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Joey Cantillo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joey Cantillo / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoey Cantillo / Trevor Rogers announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-146	+114	55.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

1:36 PM · decision fi-e64bfa7286e22690

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

47.8%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-5.3%

Effective Edge

-5.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.2%

Fair Odds

-109

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -110

Raw Edge

-0.2%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brayan Bello · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.478
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grayson Rodriguez / Brayan Bello announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.478

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrayson Rodriguez / Brayan Bello announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

2:11 PM · decision fi-2be901d2d8a4d534

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers +104

Raw Edge

+0.3%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -125

Raw Edge

-4.8%

Effective Edge

-5.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Derek Law · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.493
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Derek Law / Noah Cameron announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.493

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDerek Law / Noah Cameron announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+104	-139	45.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+104	-132	46.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:11 PM · decision fi-279b18180b7533f7

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-4.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Matthew Boyd / Robert Gasser announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMatthew Boyd / Robert Gasser announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

3:11 PM · decision fi-7cef0c569b6c8305

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -124

Raw Edge

-5.7%

Effective Edge

-6.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +102

Raw Edge

+0.9%

Effective Edge

-0.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Joe Ryan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joe Ryan / Troy Melton announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoe Ryan / Troy Melton announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

5:11 PM · decision fi-14c91d8e15f11977

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-0.9%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jake Irvin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nick Pivetta · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jake Irvin / Nick Pivetta announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJake Irvin / Nick Pivetta announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

8:11 PM · decision fi-e92432eeafcf864f

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -122

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +119

Raw Edge

+3.6%

Effective Edge

+2.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael McGreevy / Logan Webb announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael McGreevy / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-159	+119	57.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+100	53.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

9:11 PM · decision fi-88cab028da64853e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:09:33.066636Z

both starters must be officially announced

3 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics

10:06 PM · decision fi-faf1de4fbbabc7c2

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-5.8%

Effective Edge

-6.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +108

Raw Edge

+1.2%

Effective Edge

+0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-06 · updated 2026-09-07T15:03:10.096995Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dylan Cease / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDylan Cease / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-137	+103	54.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 185 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=185
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	1	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	41.3%	28.7%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	38.6%	19.7%	+18.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	3	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	36.7%	17.9%	+18.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	36.3%	19.7%	+16.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	35.1%	17.9%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	3	Troy Melton (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	35.1%	17.9%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+325	-	33.6%	22.0%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	1	Derek Law (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	33.5%	17.9%	+15.6%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	4	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.5%	17.1%	+16.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	1	Jonah Tong (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	33.2%	20.8%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Juan Soto	New York Mets	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	2	Eury Pérez (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	32.9%	20.8%	+12.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Manny Machado	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.8%	17.9%	+15.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Heriberto Hernandez	Miami Marlins	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	-	Jonah Tong (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	30.9%	16.4%	+14.5%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	1	Brayan Bello (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	30.2%	15.0%	+15.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	2	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	29.9%	19.7%	+10.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Merrill	San Diego Padres	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	-	Jake Irvin (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.9%	18.8%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	2	Joey Cantillo (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.6%	18.8%	+10.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Eldridge	San Francisco Giants	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	28.9%	14.5%	+14.4%	96	-
Strong HR Chance	Mickey Gasper	Boston Red Sox	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	2	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	28.8%	13.3%	+15.5%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	28.8%	16.4%	+12.4%	96	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	100	91.3%	-1046	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	100	87.2%	-682	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Chourio, Seiya Suzuki, Gary Sanchez	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	100	87.1%	-675	Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Riley Greene	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.9%	-
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	100	84.0%	-523	Hector Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	100	83.8%	-516	Kyle Stowers, Juan Soto, Heriberto Hernandez, Francisco Lindor	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	94	83.3%	-498	Kazuma Okamoto, Zack Gelof, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	100	83.0%	-487	Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	100	81.7%	-445	Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Ty France, Luis Campusano	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	99	80.3%	-408	Wilyer Abreu, Zach Neto, Mickey Gasper, Mike Trout	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 \| Wind 13 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN	-
Pass	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	88	77.7%	-348	Carter Jensen, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 11 mph OUT (SE) -- run total UP	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.3%, P(U1.5) 55.8%
Pass	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	84	73.9%	-283	Pete Alonso, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Coby Mayo, Jo Adell	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 26.1%, P(U1.5) 61.2%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (+220) HR chance 41.3% | edge +12.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.307, OPS 0.881, ISO 0.283, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 17.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.501
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 35/137 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0337, xFIP 4.51, K% 18.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.73, whiff 26.3%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.905, K% 33.3% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.072, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.292 (388 PA)

Best HR Chance Rafael Devers — St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (+375) HR chance 38.6% | edge +18.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.243, OPS 0.855, ISO 0.259, TB/G 1.95
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.467
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/144 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0316, xFIP 4.26, K% 16.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.352, xERA 5.36, whiff 19.8%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 2.467, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.069, OPS 1.009, ISO 0.323 (404 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (+425) HR chance 36.7% | edge +18.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.189, OPS 0.891, ISO 0.229, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.501
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 26/143 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0337, xFIP 4.51, K% 18.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.73, whiff 26.3%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.964, K% 28.6% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 1.027, ISO 0.305 (374 PA)

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (+375) HR chance 36.3% | edge +16.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.278, OPS 0.946, ISO 0.292, TB/G 2.20
Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.501
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 33/144 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0351, xFIP 4.33, K% 21.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.314, xERA 4.15, whiff 21.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.947, ISO 0.253 (207 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.421, xwOBA 0.290 (53 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (+425) HR chance 35.1% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.193, OPS 0.812, ISO 0.192, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 12.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.9/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.461
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 18/109 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0342, xFIP 4.38, K% 18.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.86, whiff 23.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.127, K% 33.3% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.892, ISO 0.215 (146 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Kody Clemens — Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers (+425) HR chance 35.1% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.191, OPS 0.762, ISO 0.226, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 11.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.4/108.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.465
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/126 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0273, xFIP 4.06, K% 20.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.293, xERA 3.58, whiff 24.6%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.429, K% 14.3% (7 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.780, ISO 0.245 (375 PA)

Best HR Chance Kazuma Okamoto — Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics (+325) HR chance 33.6% | edge +11.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.745, ISO 0.211, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.428
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 27/138 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0377, xFIP 5.00, K% 22.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.286, xERA 3.40, whiff 25.3%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 1.010 (27 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.831, ISO 0.250 (148 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Carter Jensen — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals (+425) HR chance 33.5% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.165, OPS 0.755, ISO 0.210, TB/G 1.54
Statcast: barrel 11.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.4/113.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.391
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/133 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0000, xFIP 4.39, K% 15.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.450, xERA 9.92, whiff 22.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.792, ISO 0.246 (380 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.440, xwOBA 0.322 (74 PA)

⚠ Pitcher has suppressed HRs

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+1400	0.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+1600	0.6%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Tommy White	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+1000	0.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Tyler Heineman	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	+1400	0.8%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin batter pitch-type sample (8 PA) \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Wind 13 mph IN (NW) -- run total DOWN \| Cold recent HR form
Justin Crawford	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	+1200	0.8%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Myles Straw	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	+1100	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Petey Halpin	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+1100	1.0%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Bryan Torres	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	+1000	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Jacob Young	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	+1100	1.1%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Blaze Alexander	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	+800	1.2%	Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	1:36 PM	Trevor Rogers	Joey Cantillo	1.00	26.1% MODEL SIGNAL	61.2% MODEL SIGNAL	12.4%	+13.7%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	2:11 PM	Noah Cameron	Derek Law	0.93	22.3% MODEL SIGNAL	55.8% MODEL SIGNAL	10.4%	+11.9%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	1:36 PM	Brayan Bello	Grayson Rodriguez	0.95	19.7%	51.7%	11.8%	+7.9%
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	5:11 PM	Nick Pivetta	Jake Irvin	0.85	18.3%	49.5%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	8:11 PM	Logan Webb	Michael McGreevy	0.82	17.0%	47.2%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	10:06 PM	Jacob Lopez	Dylan Cease	1.00	16.7%	46.6%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	1:11 PM	Eury Pérez	Jonah Tong	0.88	16.2%	45.7%	8.9%	+7.3%
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	9:11 PM	None	Chase Burns	0.97	16.1%	45.4%	-	+0.0%
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	3:11 PM	Troy Melton	Joe Ryan	0.91	12.9%	39.3%	10.1%	+2.8%
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:11 PM	Robert Gasser	Matthew Boyd	1.08	12.8%	39.1%	-	+0.0%
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:06 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Grant Holmes	1.10	8.7%	30.0%	8.3%	+0.4%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (26.1%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (61.2%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.343 (raw=1.712, park_adj=+0.000, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.97x (base lambda 1.385)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Trevor Rogers pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 +0.2, xwOBA 0.303, HH% 37.8, mix FF/CH, n=2336)
Joey Cantillo pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.4, xwOBA 0.310, HH% 38.5, mix FF/CU, n=2459)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Cleveland Guardians lineup vs pitch mix 0.99x (xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.379, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Baltimore Orioles lineup vs pitch mix 1.01x (xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.429, hitters 9, mix FF/CU)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.98x
Baltimore Orioles bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.91, expected pen 3.4 IP)
Cleveland Guardians bullpen HR 0.97x (vulnerability 0.84, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 26.1% P(under 1.5 HR) = 61.2%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 1.00 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Trevor Rogers): 0.0258 HR/BF Away SP (Joey Cantillo): 0.0264 HR/BF
Pete Alonso: 0.0573 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.2464 lambda
Coby Mayo: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1652 lambda
Jo Adell: 0.0355 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1524 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 12.4% (14 batter lines used) edge = +13.7%

🔬 MODEL Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.3%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (55.8%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.500 (raw=1.780, park_adj=-0.070, SP_z=-0.24)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.496)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Noah Cameron pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.3, xwOBA 0.313, HH% 38.4, mix FF/CH, n=2513)
Pitch-mix lineup lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Arizona Diamondbacks lineup vs pitch mix 1.00x (xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.382, hitters 9, mix FF/CH)
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
Kansas City Royals bullpen HR 1.05x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.3 IP)
Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.2 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.3% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.93 Temp: 79 F Wind-out: 0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Noah Cameron): 0.0241 HR/BF Away SP (Derek Law): 0.0280 HR/BF
Ketel Marte: 0.0447 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1923 lambda
Carter Jensen: 0.0413 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1861 lambda
Nolan Arenado: 0.0411 HR/PA x 4.0 PA = 0.1642 lambda
DK implied P(no HR) = 10.4% (16 batter lines used) edge = +11.9%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

21 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	75.7	58.5	100.0	6	Sweeper (41% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.4%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.212, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	73.2	75.0	79.0	6	Changeup (50% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 24.5%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	70.6	71.2	74.5	4	Sweeper (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	65.7	67.6	68.0	4	Slider (52% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 31.4%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.279, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	58.6	51.8	64.5	5	Slider (31% whiff, 34% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	57.1	62.4	52.5	5	Changeup (39% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	56.8	53.1	62.5	6	Sweeper (36% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	56.2	61.4	52.5	6	Slider (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.4%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	55.3	52.3	61.0	6	Slider (34% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	52.4	47.7	57.5	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	52.3	54.1	52.0	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	48.3	38.3	53.0	4	Changeup (30% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	47.2	43.6	50.5	6	Sweeper (27% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	46.4	42.3	52.0	5	Changeup (27% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	45.6	50.9	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	42.8	44.6	39.0	5	Slider (39% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	40.8	47.2	31.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	40.3	46.6	32.5	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.350, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	38.9	47.3	30.0	6	Cutter (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	35.2	38.3	31.5	7	Changeup (28% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.352, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Derek Law	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	24.1	41.8	0.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.450, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

21 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Derek Law	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals	R	19.9%	1.1	-	4.8	18	short	full	0.00	100.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.1 IP/start
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	23.9%	6.0	4.8	6.0	101	deep	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	16.5%	4.6	4.9	4.8	77	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians	L	24.2%	5.6	5.5	5.6	94	normal	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brayan Bello	Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	R	14.8%	3.5	4.5	4.5	59	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	16.8%	5.8	5.7	5.7	97	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	29.1%	5.1	5.6	5.5	86	short	full	68.00	32.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles	L	23.5%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	19.2%	5.5	6.0	5.9	92	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	20.3%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.7%	5.2	4.8	4.9	87	normal	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs New York Mets	R	24.6%	5.0	5.4	5.3	84	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	21.5%	4.5	5.1	5.0	76	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Joe Ryan	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	24.3%	5.6	5.5	5.5	94	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jonah Tong	New York Mets vs Miami Marlins	R	19.2%	3.1	-	5.2	52	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	31.5%	6.3	6.1	6.1	106	deep	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Pivetta	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals	R	29.2%	4.0	4.0	4.8	67	short	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	18.1%	4.8	6.0	5.8	80	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants	R	17.0%	5.3	5.5	5.4	89	normal	full	31.50	68.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Athletics	R	34.2%	5.9	6.0	6.0	99	normal	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Irvin	Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres	R	22.7%	4.6	4.8	4.7	77	short	full	32.50	67.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	17.5	20.5	3.0	17.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.98 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.1	2.6	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.8	-0.7	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Under	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.8	80	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.9	0.3	2.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

164 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Leonardo Bernal	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.98	1.76	0.61	0.61	3.14 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.56	1.14	0.61	0.80	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.50	1.08	0.74	0.68	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.44	1.18	0.72	0.54	2.64 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.43	1.16	0.73	0.55	2.22 / Over	0.30	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.42	1.07	0.82	0.52	2.49 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.37	1.25	0.61	0.51	2.12 / Over	0.30	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Kyle Schwarber	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.37	1.00	0.74	0.62	2.37 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.37	1.03	0.68	0.65	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.35	1.03	0.56	0.77	2.34 / Over	0.40	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.34	1.10	0.69	0.55	2.33 / Over	0.40	season_games=124,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.34	0.96	0.81	0.57	1.99 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ryan Jeffers	Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.32	0.94	0.62	0.75	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=79,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.31	1.11	0.57	0.63	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.31	1.02	0.67	0.61	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=133,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.30	1.01	0.65	0.64	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=133,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brett Bateman	Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.29	1.38	0.64	0.28	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=25,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryce Harper	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.29	1.02	0.62	0.64	2.41 / Over	0.30	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.28	1.33	0.48	0.47	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=135,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Juan Soto	New York Mets @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.28	1.03	0.65	0.60	2.23 / Over	0.30	season_games=92,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pete Alonso	Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.28	1.08	0.63	0.57	2.38 / Over	0.30	season_games=144,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.26	0.97	0.67	0.61	1.90 / Over	0.30	season_games=143,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Wilyer Abreu	Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.24	1.04	0.61	0.59	2.49 / Over	0.30	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Carter Jensen	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.22	0.94	0.68	0.60	2.36 / Over	0.30	season_games=133,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alex Bregman	Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.21	1.03	0.60	0.59	2.16 / Over	0.35	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

MLB Intel Radar

Noah Cameron workload or role risk

Brayan Bello workload or role risk

Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox game or team context update

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies game or team context update

Grayson Rodriguez workload or role risk

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 3 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes