MLB Bets 2026-09-04

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	105W–61L–0P	63%	+11.07 u	Last 14 days • 166 settled
Grade A	10W–7L–0P	59%	-0.08 u
Grade B	95W–54L–0P	64%	+11.16 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3805W–2385L–8P	61%	-259.14 u	All-time • 6198 settled
Grade A	275W–218L–0P	56%	-12.98 u
Grade B	3528W–2158L–8P	62%	-239.73 u

196 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Bauers	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Adley Rutschman	0.5	-182	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Alex Bregman	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-448	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Blaze Alexander	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-367	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Braden Montgomery	0.5	-285	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-353	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-384	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Bryan Torres	0.5	-228	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-398	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-445	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-385	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Christian Moore	0.5	-221	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-256	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Colson Montgomery	0.5	-248	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Connor Norby	0.5	-261	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-251	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Dane Myers	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Derek Hill	0.5	-730	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Drake Baldwin	0.5	-470	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Drew Cavanaugh	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Drew Gilbert	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Enrique Hernandez	0.5	-355	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Esteury Ruiz	0.5	-428	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	-188	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-433	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	George Lombard Jr.	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-360	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-321	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ha-Seong Kim	0.5	-373	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-411	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-429	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-341	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jackson Chourio	0.5	-344	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-452	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-390	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Javier Sanoja	0.5	-551	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-454	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Joc Pederson	0.5	-423	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Juan Soto	0.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-363	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-391	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Luis Robert Jr.	0.5	-277	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-276	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Mark Vientos	0.5	-416	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Matt Olson	0.5	-372	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Mickey Gasper	0.5	-251	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-455	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Moises Ballesteros	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-339	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-468	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-523	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-497	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Roman Anthony	0.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Ryan Jeffers	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-383	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-231	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Sean Murphy	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Teoscar Hernandez	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Tyler Stephenson	0.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Vaughn Grissom	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-325	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.5	-253	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.5	-190	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Wade Meckler	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-214	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-114	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	- Jackson Kent	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	6.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Janson Junk	3.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	K Prop	Shane Baz	4.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Andre Pallante	2.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristian Javier	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Janson Junk	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Jared Jones	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Logan Gilbert	1.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Matt Wilkinson	2.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	1.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	1.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Ranger Suarez	2.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Rhett Lowder	3.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Shane Drohan	2.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Earned Run	Walker Buehler	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Johnson	5.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale	17.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Andre Pallante	0.5	-241	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Chris Sale	1.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Cristopher Sanchez	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Daniel Lynch IV	1.5	-183	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Nick Martinez	1.5	-198	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Nolan McLean	1.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	Pitcher Walks	Rhett Lowder	1.5	-196	-	PENDING	-
2026-09-04	YRFI	YRFI	-	150	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-09-03	K Prop	Sandy Alcantara	3.5	-140	-	LOSS	-1.000	Sandy Alcantara: 2.0 (line 3.5)
2026-09-03	K Prop	Tanner Bibee	3.5	-152	-	WIN	+0.658	Tanner Bibee: 4.0 (line 3.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	619	55%	-22.34u	38	66%	+5.44u	293	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	534	58%	+8.71u	24	71%	+4.82u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	0	-	+0.00u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	0	-	+0.00u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	670	56%	-31.94u	48	50%	-7.68u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	457	62%	+0.17u	37	81%	+11.38u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	133	47%	-15.71u	5	40%	-0.80u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	0	-	+0.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	0	-	+0.00u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	5/5	No blocker
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 26 total candidate(s); season N 619, 14d N 38	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 534, 14d N 24	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 0	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 32 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 32/32 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 23 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 267 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 8 total candidate(s); season N 133, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 209 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 0	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 209 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 844 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 234 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 811 pitcher(s), 3605 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 599 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 32 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 18 team(s), 162 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 420 hitter(s) \| 32 SP matchup(s), 1400 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 162 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 2 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 30 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 360 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 31 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 31 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 31 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 27 line(s)/14 game(s); Earned Runs 27 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 135, bovada_direct 12
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3084 market side(s) checked \| 3084 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 5 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 209 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 2 above probability threshold \| 10 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 650 \| batter bats 429 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 51 \| batter pitch-type 599 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 245 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Public Intel Signal: 1 provider(s) configured -- shadow mode
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel QC: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (48/48 uncached queries used)
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	Public Intel Radar: Skipped -- retrieval budget exhausted (32/32 uncached queries used)
✓	READY	Available	MLB Intel Radar: Completed -- 5 topic(s) surfaced
✓	READY	Available	Probability shadow: 880 record(s) frozen \| replay passed \| activation ready

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-157	+130	-1.5 (-101)	1.5 (-119)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-106	-114	-1.5 (+167)	1.5 (-204)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:46 PM	+163	-198	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+140)	1.5 (-170)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	-161	+133	-1.5 (+108)	1.5 (-130)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+168	-205	1.5 (-132)	-1.5 (+109)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+101	-122	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-104	-115	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	-102	-119	-1.5 (+156)	1.5 (-190)	O/U 10.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-127	+105	-1.5 (+118)	1.5 (-142)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-117	-103	-1.5 (+145)	1.5 (-176)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+186	-229	1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+100)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+239	-300	1.5 (+105)	-1.5 (-127)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

MLB Intel Radar

Shadow-mode public intel briefing; does not change picks or grades

Keider Montero workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: NotableMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 73%Entities: Keider Montero

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: scratched
Intel posture: Opposes
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Projection recheck; review workload-dependent overs

Jake Bauers lineup or availability update

Batter Availability IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Batter Hits, Batter Total Bases, Batter H+R+RBI, Batter Walks, Batter Strikeouts, Home RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 60%Entities: Jake Bauers

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.
Matched terms: platoon, day-to-day, out of the lineup, not in the lineup, not starting
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Verify lineup and expected role before betting the batter prop

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 57%Entities: Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds game or team context update

Game and Team IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Moneyline, Run Line, Totals, F5, NRFI/YRFI, No-HRMarket: UnknownConfidence: 57%Entities: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.

Late game or team news may affect this market; rerun the relevant matchup and game-context assumptions.
Matched terms: opener, wind
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Recheck affected game, team, and derivative market assumptions

Zebby Matthews workload or role risk

Pitcher Workload IntelBuzz: WatchMarkets: Pitcher Strikeouts, Pitcher Outs, Pitcher Hits Allowed, Pitcher Walks, Pitcher Earned RunsMarket: UnknownConfidence: 55%Entities: Zebby Matthews

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.
Matched terms: pitch count
Intel posture: Mixed
Market status: Unknown

Recommended action: Manual review

Ranked Signals

4 Grade A | 105 Grade B | 1008 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Shane Baz Over	SOX@ORI	7:06 PM	4.5	5.7	-154	BetOnline Over 4.5 -139 \| best price	25.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	🔬 Research Only Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage	Pitcher Outs	Chris Sale Over	BRA@PHI	6:41 PM	17.5	21.4	-170	BetOnline Over 17.5 -140 \| best price	22.5%	✓✓✓––✓	Best Signal
A	⛔ Paused HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake Bauers Over	BRE@RED	6:11 PM	1.5	2.6	-152	BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 \| best price	73.8%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	Best Signal	YRFI	YRFI	BRA@PHI	6:41 PM	-	0.5	+150	-	+8.6%	––––––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (25 play(s))

K Prop - Max Fried Over

Projection: 5.0Displayed: Over 3.5 -162Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.21Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.21

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Cristopher Sanchez Over

Projection: 6.0Displayed: Over 5.5 +124Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.83Recommended: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.83

Pitcher Earned Runs - Walker Buehler Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Rhett Lowder Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Ranger Suarez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Nico Hoerner Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Rafael Devers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

K Prop - Cristian Javier Over

Projection: 4.0Displayed: Over 3.5 -166Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.21Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.21

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shota Imanaga Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.17

Pitcher Earned Runs - Andre Pallante Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Daniel Lynch IV Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Nathan Church Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Hunter Goodman Under

Projection: 0.9Displayed: Under 1.5 -253Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Christian Yelich Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Jac Caglianone Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.1

Batter H+R+RBI - Leody Taveras Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter Total Bases - Cooper Pratt Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Carson Benge Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Joc Pederson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Jung Hoo Lee Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Liam Hicks Over

Projection: 1.4Displayed: Over 0.5 -210Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.1Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -205 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.9%Selected market: Over 62.9% / Under 37.1%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.1

Batter Total Bases - Yainer Diaz Over

Projection: 2.0Displayed: Over 1.5 +145Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Teoscar Hernandez Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Will Smith Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Over 3.5

Projection: -Displayed: Over 3.5 +118Market line: majority 3 | avg N/ARecommended: BetOnline Over 3 -125 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 3 / avg N/A

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Shane Baz Over 4.5 (-154) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+135	-190	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-154	+121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 56%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

MLB Player Props Today: Matchup History Trumps Season Stats - Friday, September 4 Tier 3
Shane Baz (RHP, Baltimore) counters with 7.96 K/9 (139 K in 157 IP) and a clean 6-K performance in both 2026 starts vs. Boston specifically. The 4.5 line gives a c
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/3 & 9/4 & 9/5 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Shane Baz vs.
More questions confronting Orioles this month - MASN Tier 3
The Orioles are starting Brandon Young tonight, Shane Baz Friday, Chris Bassitt Saturday and Bradish Sunday.
Red Sox return to Baltimore looking to turn around recent losing skid | Over the Monster Tier 3
The O’s haven’t seen him yet this year so maybe that will help. This is Shane Baz’s third start against Boston and he’s held them to 6 runs (3 earned) in 13 innings. He has’t had t
Red Sox lineup: Starting outfielder out again; Eli White in center field - masslive.com Tier 3
Boston will face Orioles right-hander Shane Baz, who is 5-14 with a 4.01 ERA in 27 starts.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 25.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.16K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shane Baz: K/9 8.4, proj 5.7K over 5.6 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.5% | put-away% 17.4% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Curveball (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adrian Johnson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 74 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .575
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 74 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.7%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.15
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 80%

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge, juiced K over -154, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- A risk note

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

A Best Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 17.5 (-170) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-165	+120	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	17.5	-164	+123	-
DK	17.5	-170	+127	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-170	+120	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.43 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.77 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chris Sale: 137 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .227 | OPS .595
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 29.2%/137 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 9.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.6%/137 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.9% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-152) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: Opposes Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 60%

Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

Intel Sources

Milwaukee Brewers Announce Luis Lara Decision During Cubs Series Tier 3
Brewers 9/3: “J. Chourio LF B. Turang 2B W. Contreras C J. Bauers RF A. Vaughn 1B C. Yelich DH G. Mitchell CF J. Ortiz SS D. Hamilton 3B L. Henderson SP” · https://twitter.com/Unde
Milwaukee Brewers Make William Contreras Announcement Before Cubs Game Tier 3
J. Chourio LF B. Turang 2B W. Contreras C J. Bauers RF A. Vaughn 1B C. Yelich DH G. Mitchell CF J. Ortiz SS D. Hamilton 3B · L. Henderson SP ... There are a few different changes i
MLB Picks & Predictions Today - Best MLB Bets by Odds Shark Tier 3
On the other side, the Tigers have beat up on Logan Allen, registering a .355 average in 38 at-bats. This includes a 5-for-8 mark from Spencer Torkelson. If Detroit is scoring, he&
Christian Yelich - MLB News, Rumors, & Updates | FOX Sports Tier 3
Impact Yelich doubled home Jake Bauers in the first inning to give Milwaukee an early 2-0 advantage, and later added singles in the sixth and seventh innings. This was Yelich'
MLB Lineup Report: CJ Abrams at second base, Luis Robert joins the Orioles - NBC Sports Tier 3
Griffin Conine is in a strict platoon but bats high in the order vs. RHP. Agustín Ramírez has been close to a full-time DH since returning from Triple-A. While Jake Bauers is a ful

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.413 (76 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/126 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 58/126 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.12
A-tier gate: strong consensus 75%

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 40% (30-49%) — A-grade risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: L10 HRR over-rate 40%, raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -152 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Opposes -- Late public intel raises lineup, rest, platoon, or availability risk for this batter prop.

A Best Signal Best Signal YRFI — YRFI (+150) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +150

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
Grade A: YRFI effective edge 0.0858 after 0.0000 buffer
Chris Sale / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (105 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — - Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (-115) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -115 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 40.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Walks — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Andre Pallante Over 0.5 (-241) diff 206.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -241

Selected market: Over 66.3% / Under 33.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -241 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5335008298085315 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 66.3% / under 33.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.026
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.0%, L7 8.8%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/24 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-241) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-202) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -202 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 62.6% / Under 37.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -202 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4193829461817566 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.6% / under 37.4%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.4%, L7 12.5%, season 7.4% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 22/27 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-202) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Nick Martinez Under 1.5 (-198) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -198 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.8571423675764457 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.15 over 5.6 IP (BB% 3.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.8% / under 62.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 22/26 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-198); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Rhett Lowder Over 1.5 (-200) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.4% / Under 37.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.98000202632605 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.4% / under 37.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 68 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .311 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 27.9%/68 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 11.4%, L7 9.5%, season 10.6%, BVP 7.3%/68 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Daniel Lynch IV Under 1.5 (-183) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.0800071124751958 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 3.3 IP (BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.3 IP (HIGH; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 12.7 outs/4.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 60 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .352 | OPS .907
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.8%, L7 10.4%, season 7.5%, BVP 6.7%/60 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 46/51 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-183); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (-195) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.1813667569386364 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.21 over 5.9 IP (BB% 4.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.1% / under 61.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chris Sale: 137 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .227 | OPS .595
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 29.2%/137 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 9.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 3.6%/137 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.9% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-195); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 (-154) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2574575029085 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.23 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.3%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.1%/113 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 10 play(s) (B 10)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Over 1.5 (-177) diff 60.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-177	+133	Selected

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.30 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 5.61)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-177) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Over 1.5 (-160) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	-
DK	1.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.15 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.49, ERA 3.44)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-160) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-170) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-160	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 125 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.3%, L7 23.4%, season 24.7%, BVP 28.0%/125 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-117) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.85 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.99, ERA 5.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-128) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+105	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.87, ERA 5.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .200
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 24.1%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Over 1.5 (-142) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Pitcher Workload Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.19 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 2.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Drohan Under 2.5 (-125) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.83 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 4.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Under 3.5 (-157) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.07 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 4.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 68 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .311 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 27.9%/68 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 (-145) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+130	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.66, ERA 4.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Matt Wilkinson Under 2.5 (-112) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-119	-112	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.2%, L7 25.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter Walks — 85 play(s) (B 85)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-600) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 118/137 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 58/66 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 118/137 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-600); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-454) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+305	-454	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/124 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 100/124 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-454) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-157) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -157

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-157	+113	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✓✓–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/72 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 71/139 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-157) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-523) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -523

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+345	-523	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 110/137 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 110/137 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-523) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-375) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 102/125 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 102/125 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-391) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+267	-391	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 110/130 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 110/130 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-391) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-445) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -445

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -445 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+300	-445	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 109/132 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 60/70 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 109/132 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-445); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-383) diff 63.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -383

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -383 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-383	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/131 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 112/131 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-383); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-411) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -411 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/125 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter Walks: 104/125 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-411) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-448) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -448

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+302	-448	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.212
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/138 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 44/68 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 99/138 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-448) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-390) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+266	-390	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .607
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/132 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter Walks: 49/69 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 104/132 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-390) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-296) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-296) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-373) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-373) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-452) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -452

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+304	-452	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/134 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 47/70 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 99/134 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-452); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-363) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+249	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 104/129 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 57/69 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 104/129 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-363) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-468) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+313	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/138 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 52/67 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 104/138 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-468) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-433) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 98/132 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/64 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 98/132 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-433) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-429) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -429

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+290	-429	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-429) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-730) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -730 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -730

Selected market: Over 16.9% / Under 83.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -730 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+460	-730	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-730) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-341) diff 51.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/129 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 103/129 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-341); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-248) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+176	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/132 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/69 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 88/132 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-248) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-285) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/132 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/69 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 88/132 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-285) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-384) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -384

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+262	-384	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/134 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 103/134 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-384) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-251) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-251); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-423) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -423

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -423 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+286	-423	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-423); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-235) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+167	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-235); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-497) diff 49.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -497

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+331	-497	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 17 PA | 8/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.255
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 103/140 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/72 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 103/140 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-497); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-267) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -267

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	-
DK	0.5	+188	-267	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-267) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-360) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -360

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+247	-360	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-360) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-428) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -428

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -428 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+289	-428	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-428) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-551) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -551 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -551

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -551 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+361	-551	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-551) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-353) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+244	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 95/135 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 43/67 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 95/135 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-353); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-367) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+252	-367	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 101/138 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/69 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 101/138 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-367) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-293) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 92/123 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/123 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-293) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-372) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+255	-372	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | 7/21 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.078
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 44/68 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 92/140 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Heavy juice (-372); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-231) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 83/120 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 83/120 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-231) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-455) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-455) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-261) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-261) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-256) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-280) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/134 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/69 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 49/65 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 99/134 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-233) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/134 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/69 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 94/134 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-233) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-359) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-359) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-398) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -398

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -398 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+271	-398	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/134 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/64 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 48/70 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 89/134 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-398) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-315) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/120 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 45/64 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 85/120 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-315) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-276) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+170	-245	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/120 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 84/120 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-276) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mark Vientos Under 0.5 (-416) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+282	-416	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-416) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-133) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -133

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-104	-133	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-232) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -218 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-232) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-357) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -357

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+246	-357	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/134 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/66 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 48/68 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 95/134 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-357) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-216) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-216) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-182) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -182

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+131	-182	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-182) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Gasper Under 0.5 (-251) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	-
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-251) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Roman Anthony Under 0.5 (-152) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -152

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+113	-152	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+110	-152	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-153) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+116	-154	-
DK	0.5	+111	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-153) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-232) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-232) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-271) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -271 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-271) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-190) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+137	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/126 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/65 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 86/126 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-190); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-228) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+162	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-228) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-396) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-396) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-195) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-195) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-304) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-304) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-221) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -221

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -221 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+158	-221	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-221) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-304) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-304) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-239) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+170	-239	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-239) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-470) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -470

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+315	-470	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/63 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Heavy juice (-470); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-325) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -325 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-325); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-253) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+179	-253	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-253); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-339) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+234	-339	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-339); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-288) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-288) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-277) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -277

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -277 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+194	-277	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-277) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-385) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-385) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-295) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-295) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — LaMonte Wade Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-188) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-188); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-171) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+123	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-240) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	-
DK	0.5	+170	-240	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-240); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-214) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.444
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/130 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/68 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 87/130 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-214); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-235) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+150	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.583
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/131 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/65 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 88/131 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-235) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-215) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-215) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-355) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+244	-355	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-355) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-256) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+188	-265	-
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/138 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/72 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 41/66 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 83/138 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-256) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-344) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+237	-344	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 74/106 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-344); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-321) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 91/140 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/69 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 46/71 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 91/140 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-321) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-156) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.551 (82 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 69/129 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 69/129 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR over-rate: L10 20% + L5 20% (both cold) — risk note

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 20%, raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -156 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-114) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals (F5) | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	+102	-122	-
BetUS	5.5	-110	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	5.5	+100	-130	-
FanDuel	5.5	-114	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	5.5	-101	-121	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Game and Team Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Jameson Taillon (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Daniel Lynch IV xFIP 4.30
Jameson Taillon xFIP 4.78
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)
Away SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1008 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 20 play(s) (A 1 | B 1 | C 18)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Zebby Matthews Over 1.5 (-176) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -176 | exact

Public Intel Signal: Mixed Pitcher Workload Intel (Completed) confidence 57%

Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

Intel Sources

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks Today 9-4-2026: Tony Tellez Backs the Junk-Imanaga Double Zero in Miami and Hammers YRFI on the Twins at Rate Field Tier 3
Here is the detail that makes him a fade rather than a fluke: his 85.7% first-pitch strike rate is also the highest on the board. He is not walking his way into tr
Starting Pitcher Streamer Ranks Fantasy Baseball: 9/4 & 9/5 & 9/6 | Pitcher List Tier 3
Zebby Matthews @ CHW – Zebby’s command is looking better than ever.
With Shohei Ohtani in question, Dodgers set sights on Nats - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM Tier 3
“I think what impressed me the most was how he was able to dig deep and reach back for more when he was approaching that 100-pitch count in a time where we really
Twins Takeaways: Minnesota Wastes Comeback in Crushing Loss to Tigers Tier 3
The Twins will have an off-day on Thursday while traveling to Chicago to face off with the White Sox. In Friday's series opener, the Twins will be sending out RHP Zebby Matthe
Erick Fedde, Zebby Matthews look to stay hot as White Sox host Twins - Field Level Media - Professional sports content solutions | FLM Tier 3
Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews (9-8, 4.58 ERA) will look to frustrate Peters and his fellow White Sox hitters.

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.902093078676726 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zebby Matthews: 69 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, top-6 27.1%, BVP 17.4%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.1%, L7 12.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 7.2%/69 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 27.1% (5/6); lineup K% 26.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-176); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

⚠ Public Intel Signal: Mixed -- Public intel indicates possible workload, role, or availability risk.

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Erick Fedde Over 1.5 (-116) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52845855033005 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.2 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .122 | OPS .408
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 7.9%, L7 9.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 10.6%/47 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/29 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walker Buehler Over 1.5 (-162) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.834530921805825 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 125 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.3%, L7 23.4%, season 24.7%, BVP 28.0%/125 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 11.3%, L7 6.4%, season 9.6%, BVP 5.6%/125 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Feltner Over 1.5 (-124) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7859334852987685 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 8.6%, L7 5.6%, season 8.3%, BVP 2.9%/35 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Drohan Over 1.5 (-164) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.778919683615856 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 12.1%, L7 8.6%, season 9.5%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7710218015814716 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 4.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 8.2%, L7 9.6%, season 9.8%, BVP 16.7%/54 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shota Imanaga Under 1.5 (-215) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.253270535759904 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.0 IP (BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.0% / under 64.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.6%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.1%, L7 9.4%, season 9.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (+116) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7318490903883905 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.2 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .200
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 24.1%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.7%, L7 8.8%, season 8.2% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Max Fried Over 1.5 (+128) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7229632206640841 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .744
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.4%, L7 8.6%, season 9.3%, BVP 6.2%/96 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-155) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6979076438717435 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 74 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .575
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.7%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 7.2%, L7 5.9%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.4%/74 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kade Morris Under 1.5 (-188) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3036567650972541 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 3.4 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.9% / under 61.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 27.3%, season 23.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.8%, L7 10.8%, season 9.1% (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Janson Junk Under 1.5 (-225) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.3068023024012962 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.5 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 35.1% / under 64.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 107)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 8.5%, season 10.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matt Wilkinson Under 1.5 (+119) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3700208622924928 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.1 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.2%, L7 25.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.8%, L7 7.1%, season 8.4% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.67 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/3 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jackson Kent Under 2.5 (-140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.341283534898189 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 4.6 IP (BB% 10.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 9.5%, L7 12.1%, season 9.8% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/4 (0%) | L10 0/4 (0%) | L20 0/4 (0%) | Season 0/4 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.75 | Season Avg 3.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 0/4 under 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 (-152) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.362265530896538 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.45 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 10.3%, L7 9.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 4.2%/95 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5676495423834473 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 8.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/27 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Blake Snell Under 2.5 (-160) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.402362593404189 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.2 IP (BB% 9.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.14x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 8.6%, L7 11.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.14x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Johnson Under 2.5 (-150) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4311386307359872 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.48 over 4.7 IP (BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 10.6%, L7 10.6%, season 9.2% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/17 (65%) | Season 11/17 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristian Javier Over 1.5 (-182) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5237760524461934 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.1 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 16.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 10.2%, L7 6.4%, season 8.8%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jameson Taillon Under 1.5 (-231) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -231 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4850703187723189 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.0 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 11.8 outs/3.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.6% / under 65.4%)
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 35 PA | K% 31.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .226 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.6%, L7 18.1%, season 20.8%, top-6 22.5%, BVP 31.4%/35 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.5%, L7 8.3%, season 8.4%, BVP 5.7%/35 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 175 play(s) (A 7 | B 4 | C 164)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-586) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -586 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -586

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -586 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+382	-586	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/132 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 57/71 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 108/132 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-586); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-630) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.6% / Under 81.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+407	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/132 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/68 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 104/132 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-630); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-454) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -454

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -454 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+305	-454	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 7/20 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .731
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/133 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/64 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 50/69 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 98/133 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-454); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-391) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .802
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 99/135 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/67 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 99/135 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-391); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-306) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-306); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-197) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -197

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+141	-197	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-197); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-585) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -585

Selected market: Over 19.6% / Under 80.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -585 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+381	-585	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-585); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-103) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
DK	0.5	-103	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.77
Base projection 0.77 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/105 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.81 | Day Batter Walks: 59/105 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-166) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
DK	0.5	-166	+119	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 60/126 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/64 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 60/126 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-184) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+132	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+133	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Base projection 0.71 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .267
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/68 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 35/72 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.74 | Day Batter Walks: 66/140 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+144) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+144	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/138 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 32/71 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 66/138 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Wood Over 0.5 (-110) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-110	-126	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.78
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/115 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.79 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 62/115 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.78

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+159) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +159

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+159	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/72 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 71/139 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+150) diff 70.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/139 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/72 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 34/67 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 71/139 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-388) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -388 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -388

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -388 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+265	-388	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+114) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	-
DK	0.5	+114	-158	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 61/121 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/64 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.84 | Day Batter Walks: 61/121 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.74

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-463) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+310	-463	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 4/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 104/137 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/67 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 54/70 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 104/137 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Serna Under 0.5 (-436) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Deyvison De Los Santos Under 0.5 (-594) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -594 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -594

Selected market: Over 19.4% / Under 80.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -594 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+386	-594	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 (-710) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -710 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -710

Selected market: Over 17.2% / Under 82.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -710 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+448	-710	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-278) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 107/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 107/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-314) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -314

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+219	-314	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 107/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 107/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+107) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+107	-148	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/141 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/69 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 28/72 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 62/141 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.57

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+100) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	-
DK	0.5	+100	-138	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/129 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 29/68 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 59/129 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adael Amador Under 0.5 (-334) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -334

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+231	-334	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-392) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+268	-392	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-327) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-217) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-436) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-312) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/124 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 87/124 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-327) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 2 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/131 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/68 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/63 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 96/131 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christopher Morel Under 0.5 (-296) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-327) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -327 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+227	-327	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 108/140 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/71 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 108/140 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-196) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+141	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-207) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-300) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-343) diff 40.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+237	-343	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-299) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -299

Selected market: Over 30.2% / Under 69.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+199	-280	-
DK	0.5	+209	-299	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-378) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-477) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -477

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -477 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+319	-477	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eli White Under 0.5 (-750) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 16.6% / Under 83.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -750 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+471	-750	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-421) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -421 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+290	-440	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Turner Hill Under 0.5 (-305) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-463) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -440 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+310	-463	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-303) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+212	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-335	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/131 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/63 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 50/68 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 93/131 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-439) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-205) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -205 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	-
DK	0.5	+147	-205	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-251) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	-
DK	0.5	+177	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-461) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -461

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -461 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+309	-461	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leonardo Bernal Under 0.5 (-238) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+169	-238	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adam Frazier Under 0.5 (-424) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -424 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+287	-424	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-337) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-522) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -522

Selected market: Over 21.1% / Under 78.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -522 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+345	-522	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-243) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/125 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 49/63 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 90/125 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-358) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+246	-358	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.9% (walk adj 0.81x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/134 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/65 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 47/69 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 91/134 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-408) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -408 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -408

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -408 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+278	-408	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/130 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 91/130 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-295) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+207	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/130 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 91/130 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-424) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -424

Selected market: Over 24.2% / Under 75.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -420 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+287	-424	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-459) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -459 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -459

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -459 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+308	-459	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-305) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-303) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -303

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+211	-303	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-209) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+149	-209	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-218) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 92/135 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 45/67 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 92/135 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-306) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-166) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -166

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	-
DK	0.5	+120	-166	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-158) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -158

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+114	-158	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-251) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+191	-265	-
DK	0.5	+177	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-304) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-165) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-469) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -469

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -469 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+314	-469	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-472) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -472 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -472

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -472 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+316	-472	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-343) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -343

Selected market: Over 27.7% / Under 72.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -343 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+237	-343	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-285) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -285 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+200	-285	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/137 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 104/137 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-146) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -146

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+106	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/137 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/72 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 52/65 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 104/137 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-232) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-324) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+222	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-190) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-413) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -413

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -413 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+280	-413	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-205) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -205 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -205 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-452) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -452

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -452 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+304	-452	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-159) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -159

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+115	-159	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brock Rodden Under 0.5 (-295) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+207	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-329) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -329

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+228	-329	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+272	-400	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-418) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+283	-418	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-455) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-529) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -529

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+349	-529	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-556) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -556 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -556

Selected market: Over 20.3% / Under 79.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -556 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+364	-556	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzel Clarke Under 0.5 (-583) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -583 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -583

Selected market: Over 19.6% / Under 80.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -583 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+380	-583	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lazaro Montes Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-500) diff 33.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-106) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -106

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
DK	0.5	-106	-130	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .222
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/130 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/70 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 58/130 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-284) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -275; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+200	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/122 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/61 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 44/61 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 88/122 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-293) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .422
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/114 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-242) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-280) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+210	-300	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-266) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hays Under 0.5 (-463) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -463 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-500	-
DK	0.5	+310	-463	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Samad Taylor Under 0.5 (-288) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -288 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+202	-288	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-331) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -331 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -331 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+230	-331	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Caballero Under 0.5 (-317) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -317 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+221	-317	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-330) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-258) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+182	-258	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.3% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 89/133 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/66 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 43/67 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 89/133 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-209) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+149	-209	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-210) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-218) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -218 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -218; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+155	-218	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-256) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+181	-256	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-272) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+192	-272	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-344) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -344

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -344 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+238	-344	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yohandy Morales Under 0.5 (-370) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dalton Rushing Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+107) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+115	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+107	-148	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/132 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/66 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 27/66 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 56/132 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-346) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/137 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 56/71 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 100/137 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-199) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -199

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+141	-190	-
DK	0.5	+143	-199	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/120 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/62 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 82/120 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-226) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/126 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/67 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 91/126 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-254) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+179	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 78/116 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-113) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-113	-122	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/136 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/69 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 30/67 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 61/136 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-248) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -245; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+175	-248	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 90/135 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 47/66 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 90/135 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-770) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -770 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -770

Selected market: Over 16.3% / Under 83.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -770 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+479	-770	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+390	-1000	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 90/135 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 47/66 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 90/135 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-272) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+189	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/130 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 45/64 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 93/130 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-232) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/131 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 90/131 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-249) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/140 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/71 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 92/140 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-188) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/136 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/69 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 40/67 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/136 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-302) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -302

Selected market: Over 30.0% / Under 70.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+211	-302	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 100/131 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 54/68 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 100/131 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-190) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+143	-193	-
DK	0.5	+136	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/141 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/72 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 41/69 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 88/141 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-220) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 72/108 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-374) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+256	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-401) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -401

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+273	-401	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 31/52 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-258) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+183	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/136 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/70 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 94/136 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-253) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -253

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -245; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+175	-245	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+179	-253	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .574
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 84/138 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/68 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 41/70 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 84/138 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-266) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+187	-266	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/133 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/70 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 82/133 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-179) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+129	-179	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 85/136 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/67 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 43/69 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 85/136 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-222) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+158	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-359) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-152) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -152

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+110	-152	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-280) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+197	-280	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.6% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-242) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/124 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 39/64 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 83/124 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+131) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-176	-
DK	0.5	+131	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 2 | K% 17.4% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/120 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 23/63 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 47/120 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-313) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -313

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+218	-313	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/133 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/71 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 94/133 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-278) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -278

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -278 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+195	-278	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/135 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/69 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 42/66 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 90/135 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 (+168) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +168

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/113 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 43/113 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (+470) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +470 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +470

Selected market: Over 16.6% / Under 83.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +470 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+470	-750	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/136 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/68 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/68 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 50/136 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 17.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (-101) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-101	-137	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/136 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/68 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/68 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 50/136 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-161) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+116	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.24x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/103 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 74/103 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-133) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -133

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
DK	0.5	-104	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/133 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/63 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 47/70 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 87/133 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-189) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -189

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+135	-189	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/123 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/64 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/123 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-179) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/139 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/71 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 37/68 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 77/139 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-223) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 12 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.183
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/138 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/67 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 92/138 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-206) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-206	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/126 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/61 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 41/65 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 80/126 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-268) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/140 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/72 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 46/68 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 94/140 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (+128) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +128

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-165	-
DK	0.5	+128	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/134 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/70 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 28/64 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 54/134 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-114) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-114	-121	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 49/106 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-191) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/61 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 73/121 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-115) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 0.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
DK	0.5	-120	-115	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/61 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 73/121 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-210) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.1% / Under 62.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -210 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+158	-218	-
DK	0.5	+150	-210	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/136 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/68 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 40/68 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 87/136 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-146) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -146

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
DK	0.5	+106	-146	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 82/131 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/63 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 41/68 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 82/131 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (+131) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +131; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+131	-183	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/131 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/67 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 22/64 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 44/131 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+176) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +176

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/56 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 53/112 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+108) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+108	-150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/137 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/70 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 30/67 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 58/137 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+189) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +189

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .701
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/136 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/67 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 28/69 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 53/136 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+124) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+124	-172	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/134 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/63 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 21/71 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 46/134 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-371) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-371	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/122 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/64 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 73/122 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (+102) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +102

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+113	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+102	-141	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/141 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/69 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 32/72 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 55/141 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-223) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+159	-223	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/71 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/69 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 87/140 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-180) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+129	-173	-
DK	0.5	+130	-180	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (+151) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +153 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+153	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 5/19 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.018
BVP walk adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/134 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/65 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 41/69 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.68 | Day Batter Walks: 71/134 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-188) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -188

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .984
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/125 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/66 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/59 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 79/125 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+161) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +161

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +177 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+177	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+161	-227	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/140 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/72 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 24/68 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 52/140 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+158) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 30 PA | 3/21 | HR 0 | K% 23.3% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .638
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/141 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/69 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 30/72 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 55/141 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 207 play(s) (A 9 | B 31 | C 167)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-125) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.457 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/123 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 71/123 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-145) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.426 (88 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/138 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/67 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 71/138 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-124) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.528 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 57/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-121) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.371 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/105 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 43/105 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-127) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Skipped) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.250 (102 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/134 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 35/65 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 68/134 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-113) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/134 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 37/65 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 74/134 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-117) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.327 (53 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 57/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-121) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/131 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 69/131 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-108) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-131) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.227, xSLG 0.262 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/131 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/67 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 67/131 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-115) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/121 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 71/121 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-132) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/121 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 71/121 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-122) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-122	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.424 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/71 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 72/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-115) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.393 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/138 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 37/66 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.55 | Day Batter HRR: 74/138 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-139) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-139	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.334, xSLG 0.408 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/130 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/70 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 76/130 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.196, xSLG 0.243 (25 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 84/137 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 44/68 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 84/137 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-125) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.506 (57 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 12 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.183
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/138 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 43/71 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 79/138 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-122) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.476 (87 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/138 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/69 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 72/138 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-119) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.430 (41 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .574
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/138 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 72/138 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-136) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.180, xSLG 0.217 (51 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/131 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 62/131 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Under 2.5 (-162) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	2.5	+121	-162	-
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+106) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/132 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 64/132 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (-110) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/132 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 64/132 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-142) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.346 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/131 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 58/131 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-139) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/136 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/67 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 67/136 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-122) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.310 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/138 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/71 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 64/138 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (-161) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (-127) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-121) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (-106) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+116) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Roman Anthony Over 1.5 (-128) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-143) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-143	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Norby Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Alexander Over 1.5 (-118) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Lane Thomas Under 1.5 (-175) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-133) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Juan Soto Over 1.5 (-126) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-135) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 91.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 91.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/139 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 48/72 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/67 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 74/139 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+126) diff 91.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 91.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/139 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 48/72 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 26/67 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 74/139 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.47

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-108) diff 65.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.399, xSLG 0.530 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 39/55 over 1.5 (71%), avg 2.58 | Day Batter HRR: 66/110 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-146) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.450, xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/135 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/69 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 79/135 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+100) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.450, xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/135 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/69 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 79/135 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-153) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.285, xSLG 0.379 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/129 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/64 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 62/129 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-125) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Recommended
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.391 (69 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/133 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 68/133 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-106) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/134 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/70 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 65/134 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-139) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-139	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.387 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/140 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/72 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 81/140 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-110) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.461 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/134 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 36/71 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 68/134 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+103) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.431 (95 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 59/136 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 59/136 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-112) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.495 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/130 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/70 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 63/130 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-122) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.457, xSLG 0.634 (32 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 75/136 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 36/68 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 75/136 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-133) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.410 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/136 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 42/68 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.56 | Day Batter HRR: 71/136 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-170) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-170	+128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.195 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 74/131 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 41/68 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.34 | Day Batter HRR: 74/131 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-142) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.252 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/141 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/69 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 79/141 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+121) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.471 (55 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | 7/21 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.078
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/140 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/72 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 39/68 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 79/140 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+118) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.362 (61 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/117 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/63 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.62 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 70/117 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-119) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.289 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/62 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 62/120 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (-113) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.434, xSLG 0.611 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+109) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.591 (33 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/141 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/69 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 38/72 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 78/141 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-105) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.234, xSLG 0.303 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 30 PA | 3/21 | HR 0 | K% 23.3% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .638
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/141 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 41/72 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 78/141 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-111) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.315 (77 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .422
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-142) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.376 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/103 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 44/103 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Wood Over 1.5 (+135) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.52
Base projection 2.52 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/115 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.79 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 62/115 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+110) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.473 (66 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/134 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/67 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 37/67 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 69/134 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-110) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.277 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/135 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 37/66 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 70/135 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+118) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.461 (98 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 5/19 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.018
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/134 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 63/134 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-118) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.309 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/137 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 70/137 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Under 2.5 (-169) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	+122	-162	-
DK	2.5	+127	-169	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Under 2.5 (-147) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+123) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.421, xSLG 0.541 (90 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .267
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/140 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/68 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 39/72 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 76/140 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+103) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.506 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/134 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/69 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Day Batter HRR: 64/134 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+101) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.318 (105 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 17 PA | 8/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.255
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 71/140 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/72 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 71/140 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+116) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.410 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.583
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/131 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 25/66 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 56/131 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-103) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.441 (67 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/135 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 64/135 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+117) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.316 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/125 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/65 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/125 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-101) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/124 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 63/124 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.432, xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/130 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/64 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 70/130 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.432, xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/130 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/64 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 70/130 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (-140) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.449 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/135 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 35/67 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 67/135 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-112) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.433 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 56/121 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-101) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.393 (71 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/132 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/61 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 31/71 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 73/132 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+106) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.308 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/132 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/64 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 68/132 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (-101) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.397 (65 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/125 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/66 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 54/125 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+109) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+109	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.340 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/129 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 39/69 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 67/129 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+119) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.197, xSLG 0.174 (70 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 2 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/131 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/68 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 60/131 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+118) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.445 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/134 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/64 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 36/70 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 61/134 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/134 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/65 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 37/69 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 72/134 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-102) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.274 (86 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 61/132 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/66 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 61/132 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Agustín Ramírez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 51/107 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (-120) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.338 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/131 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 61/131 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-111) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.211 (85 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 65/139 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/71 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 32/68 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 65/139 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/140 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 64/140 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-163) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+130	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	Recommended
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected
BetOnline	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.315 (23 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-104) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.252 (104 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/136 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 33/67 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 61/136 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .802
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 66/135 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 66/135 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.332 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/140 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 33/72 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 64/140 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+123) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/72 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Will Smith Over 1.5 (-121) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/137 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/72 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/65 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/137 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-106) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.244 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/136 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 30/67 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/136 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+123) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.372, xSLG 0.425 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 2 | K% 17.4% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/120 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 52/120 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-170) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.210, xSLG 0.218 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/133 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 42/63 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 34/70 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 76/133 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 2.5 (-152) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+116	-154	-
DK	2.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/126 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/65 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 40/61 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 86/126 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Under 2.5 (-160) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	+127	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.216, xSLG 0.239 (61 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/125 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.60 | Away Batter HRR: 44/65 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 78/125 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+123) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.361 (20 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/134 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 31/68 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 60/134 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-125) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.399 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/125 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 51/125 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (+103) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.420 (78 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 7/20 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .731
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/133 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/64 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 61/133 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-106) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Under 2.5 (-136) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-107	-125	-
DK	2.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 94/140 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 50/71 under 2.5 (70%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 44/69 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 94/140 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+112) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	2.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+112	-149	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.87 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 61/139 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/72 over 2.5 (53%), avg 2.78 | Away Batter HRR: 23/67 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 61/139 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.47

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (+100) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/126 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/67 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 45/126 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-138) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.338 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 67/137 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/71 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 32/66 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 67/137 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-170) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-104) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-122) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.268 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/132 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/70 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 70/132 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+110) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-163) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.149, xSLG 0.186 (21 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/122 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 75/122 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 2.5 (-108) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	2.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	2.5	-114	-117	-
DK	2.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.80 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.50
Base projection 2.50 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366, xSLG 0.525 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/137 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/71 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 32/66 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/137 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+124) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-145	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.295 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/132 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/68 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 68/132 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+101) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.411 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 4/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/137 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/67 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 69/137 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Over 1.5 (+112) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-120) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.239 (59 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 80/131 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/67 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter HRR: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter HRR: 80/131 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-144) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Rojas Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dalton Rushing Over 1.5 (+120) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Under 2.5 (-157) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+115	-154	-
DK	2.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.555 (70 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/56 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 41/64 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 79/120 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Under 1.5 (-187) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.337 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/124 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter HRR: 32/63 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 70/124 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+113) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.317 (55 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+112) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.347 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/132 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/69 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 60/132 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cooper Pratt Over 1.5 (-108) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — David Hamilton Over 1.5 (+109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+102) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Turner Hill Under 1.5 (-183) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+101) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (-102) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-110) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Siri Under 1.5 (-175) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-143) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.206 (86 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/120 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter HRR: 34/60 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 77/120 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-105) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 (+100) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	+102	-136	-
DK	2.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.65 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.352 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/54 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 45/106 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 (+119) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+119	-159	-
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.64 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.500 (75 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/141 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/72 over 2.5 (44%), avg 2.64 | Away Batter HRR: 28/69 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 60/141 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+115) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Moore Under 1.5 (-165) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-104) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-111	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christopher Morel Under 1.5 (-173) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.354 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/126 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/61 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 46/65 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter HRR: 78/126 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+129) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Under 1.5 (-185) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-161) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.165, xSLG 0.209 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 77/124 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 37/65 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 77/124 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 (-128) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Under 1.5 (-152) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 (-120) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Thomas Saggese Over 1.5 (-136) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (-147) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-147	+110	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (-147) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (-156) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	Recommended
DK	1.5	-156	+118	Selected
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.323 (62 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .701
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/136 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 32/69 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 63/136 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-138) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-105	-135	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-104) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (-102) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-128	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 (-132) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Under 1.5 (-158) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Samad Taylor Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+132) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (-106) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.442 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 37/106 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 16/53 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter HRR: 37/106 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zac Veen Under 1.5 (-147) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adael Amador Under 1.5 (-122) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 1.5 (-147) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Story Under 1.5 (-153) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Under 1.5 (-153) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-135) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-135	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 (-115) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Flores Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 2.5 (+121) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+121	-161	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.53 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.398 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/130 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/68 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 17/62 over 2.5 (27%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 42/130 over 2.5 (32%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (-116) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lazaro Montes Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.P. Crawford Over 1.5 (+128) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-161) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-148) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-148	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (-112) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+112) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Charles McAdoo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Under 2.5 (-117) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	2.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	2.5	-127	-106	-
DK	2.5	-114	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.47 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324, xSLG 0.437 (89 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/140 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/72 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 34/68 under 2.5 (50%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 79/140 under 2.5 (56%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+127) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+137) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 (+117) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.52 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.463 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/122 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/64 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.30 | Away Batter HRR: 19/58 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 43/122 over 2.5 (35%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mark Vientos Under 1.5 (-138) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-165	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-127) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 267 play(s) (A 1 | B 17 | C 235 | D 14)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-175) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Public Intel Signal: No Material Intel Batter Availability Intel (Completed) confidence 0%

No material public intel found

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (-155) diff 295.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 295.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (55 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | 7/21 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.078
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 99/140 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/72 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 49/68 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 99/140 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.01

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 295% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (-175) diff 269.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 269.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.591 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/141 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/69 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 47/72 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 91/141 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.87

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 269% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-185) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+134	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-165) diff 224.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	-
Caesars	0.5	-140	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (90 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .267
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/68 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 46/72 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 87/140 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.79

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (-175) diff 220.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/63 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 81/117 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.78

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-175) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-185) diff 214.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 0.5 (-175) diff 211.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 81/134 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/64 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 45/70 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 81/134 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.583
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/131 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/65 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 39/66 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 79/131 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-200) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -193 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.420 (78 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 7/20 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .731
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 87/133 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/64 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 87/133 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-188) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -188 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .802
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/135 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/67 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 46/68 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 86/135 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+127) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-200) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-220) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
Caesars	1.5	+162	-225	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+160	-215	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (71 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/132 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 41/71 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 70/132 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 430.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 430.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/139 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 57/72 over 0.5 (79%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter TB: 38/67 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 95/139 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.15

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 430% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 430.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 430.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/139 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 57/72 over 0.5 (79%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter TB: 38/67 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 95/139 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.15

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 430% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-120) diff 297.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/135 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 55/69 over 0.5 (80%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter TB: 42/66 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 97/135 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.85

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 298% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-119) diff 295.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 295.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/131 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/67 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 44/64 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 88/131 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.89

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 295% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 279.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 279.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 97/136 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/68 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 52/68 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 97/136 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.74

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 279% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 275.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 275.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.431 (95 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 79/136 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 38/66 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 79/136 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.57

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 275% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-130) diff 262.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 262.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (98 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 5/19 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.018
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 81/134 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/65 over 0.5 (63%), avg 2.23 | Away Batter TB: 40/69 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 81/134 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.93

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 262% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 0.5 (-155) diff 261.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 261.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.473 (66 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/134 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 48/67 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 47/67 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.99 | Day Batter TB: 95/134 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.91

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 262% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-155) diff 251.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 250.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cooper Pratt Over 0.5 (-200) diff 245.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+148	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-165) diff 245.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 240.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 240.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/130 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/64 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 44/66 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 90/130 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.59

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 240% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Wood Over 0.5 (-155) diff 238.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 over 0.5 (66%), avg 2.04

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-165) diff 238.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 0.5 (-115) diff 238.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Walker Jenkins Over 0.5 (-150) diff 230.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 230.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 230% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-155) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 0.5 (-140) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	-
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-200) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-105) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yohandy Morales Over 0.5 (+100) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (-115) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-105) diff 229.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 229.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Teel Over 0.5 (-140) diff 224.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 (-164) diff 221.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.315 (23 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 64/104 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.74

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-200) diff 217.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.506 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/134 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/69 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 46/65 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 91/134 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-135) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-115) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-120) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 0.5 (-175) diff 215.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market split 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Story Over 0.5 (-160) diff 214.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eli White Over 0.5 (-120) diff 214.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adael Amador Over 0.5 (-190) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zac Veen Over 0.5 (-165) diff 214.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 (-175) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Vazquez Over 0.5 (-118) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-135) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 0.5 (-155) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-200) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-140) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+107	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-125) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Samad Taylor Over 0.5 (-165) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hays Over 0.5 (-160) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-110) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-110) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-109	-122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-115) diff 210.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 66/137 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/72 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 36/65 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 66/137 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-125) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-127	-106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 208.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (-150) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 (-155) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-120) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	-
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lazaro Montes Over 0.5 (-150) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (-150) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-210) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-205	+150	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (+100) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-105	-127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-110) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzel Clarke Over 0.5 (+320) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +320 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +320

Selected market: Over 22.2% / Under 77.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+122	-159	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-500	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 32.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brock Rodden Over 0.5 (-115) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (-110) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-185) diff 207.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 0.5 (-149) diff 206.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shay Whitcomb Over 0.5 (-108) diff 206.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Serna Over 0.5 (-120) diff 205.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 0.5 (-125) diff 205.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Deyvison De Los Santos Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brian Navarreto Over 0.5 (+120) diff 205.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+124	-161	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 37.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 0.5 (-110) diff 204.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (89 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 88/133 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 42/62 over 0.5 (68%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 88/133 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.91

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 203.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/140 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/69 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 39/71 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 80/140 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-155) diff 202.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.174 (70 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 2 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 80/131 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/68 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 80/131 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-175) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-200) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-190) diff 198.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 93/134 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/65 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 93/134 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Turner Hill Over 0.5 (-155) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-105) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-105	-128	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-155) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-140) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-175) diff 193.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/126 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/67 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 71/126 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-105) diff 191.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-107	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 0.5 (-155) diff 191.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ha-Seong Kim Over 0.5 (+260) diff 191.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 0.5 (-200) diff 190.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/129 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 49/69 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 84/129 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-185) diff 189.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (104 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/136 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/69 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 38/67 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 76/136 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Moore Over 0.5 (-140) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-185) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-155) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-155) diff 184.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 32/56 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 65/112 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-200) diff 184.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 87/140 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 (-130) diff 177.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edmundo Sosa Over 0.5 (-155) diff 177.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Derek Hill Over 0.5 (+100) diff 177.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 177.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (-160) diff 175.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 175.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 2 | K% 17.4% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/120 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 29/63 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 59/120 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 175.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 175.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-210) diff 173.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 62.9% / Under 37.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-205	+155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/124 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 43/64 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 79/124 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-155) diff 163.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 54/106 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 163.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 162.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 162.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 67/107 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 162.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 162.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-175) diff 159.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 159.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/132 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/63 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 35/69 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 74/132 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 159.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 159.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-145) diff 158.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.274 (86 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/132 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/66 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 42/66 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 76/132 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-200) diff 149.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+147	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-197	+144	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 149.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/132 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 46/64 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 89/132 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 149.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 149.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-175) diff 148.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 148.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (20 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/134 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 38/68 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 75/134 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 148.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 148.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-140) diff 147.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (62 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/134 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/64 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 42/70 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 88/134 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (-190) diff 146.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-189	+143	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .701
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/136 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/67 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 37/69 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 74/136 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-165) diff 139.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-159	+122	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 71/126 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/61 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 33/65 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 71/126 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-135) diff 136.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-133	+103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (53 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.212
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/138 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 31/68 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter TB: 72/138 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-185) diff 127.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+128	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.23
Base projection 1.23 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (86 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.23
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/60 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 63/120 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 (-190) diff 113.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+143	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.209 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/124 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 38/65 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 70/124 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 113.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-116) diff 110.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 110.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.390 (20 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/135 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/67 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 69/135 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 110.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 110.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-160) diff 105.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 105.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.370 (73 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter TB: 51/116 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 105.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 105.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-120) diff 96.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.09
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/133 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/66 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 31/67 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter TB: 68/133 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 96.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 96.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-111) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 62/139 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/72 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter TB: 22/67 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 62/139 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.15

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-165) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.218 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/133 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/63 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 41/70 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 73/133 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 74.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-114) diff 51.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (75 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/141 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter TB: 34/69 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 70/141 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 51.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+105) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.551 (82 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/129 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 58/129 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-134) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (57 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/137 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/71 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/66 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter TB: 66/137 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-127) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-122	-106	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-111) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.555 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/120 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 27/64 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 50/120 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.01

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-109) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/129 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 56/129 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+111) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/135 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 64/135 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+145) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/135 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/69 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 64/135 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-123) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/122 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/64 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 54/122 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+117) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/131 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/67 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 28/64 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 59/131 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+103) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 66/140 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/72 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 66/140 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-206) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
DK	1.5	+153	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (59 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/131 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/67 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 45/64 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 94/131 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+135) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/134 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 59/134 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+118) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.495 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/130 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/70 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 50/130 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.91

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+107) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.413 (76 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 47/126 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/64 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 26/62 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/126 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+137) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/136 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/68 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 38/68 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter TB: 61/136 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+114) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/64 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 56/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+126) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 55/121 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+122) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 55/121 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-146) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+111	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (89 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 64/140 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/72 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 37/68 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 64/140 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+139) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.530 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+116) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.528 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/123 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 50/123 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+117) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/137 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/70 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 25/67 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 57/137 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+122) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/120 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 56/120 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+100) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/130 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/68 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 57/130 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+141) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/134 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 25/64 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 55/134 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+134) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (69 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/133 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/63 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 31/70 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 51/133 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+128) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.393 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/138 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/72 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 30/66 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 55/138 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+111) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/140 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/71 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 29/69 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 58/140 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+101) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (88 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/138 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 27/71 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 55/138 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+115) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.430 (41 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .574
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/138 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 33/70 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 57/138 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (+113) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+143) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+145	-195	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+143) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+146) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (77 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .422
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 45/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+113) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/105 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 42/105 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+116) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/103 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/51 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 33/103 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-193) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/132 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/70 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 36/62 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 79/132 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+135) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 30 PA | 3/21 | HR 0 | K% 23.3% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .638
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/141 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/69 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 34/72 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 61/141 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+104) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Frelick Over 1.5 (+111) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+119) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/130 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/64 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 24/66 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 49/130 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Under 1.5 (-195) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -195 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 68/107 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Under 1.5 (-238) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.316 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/125 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/65 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 89/125 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+140) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (32 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/136 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/68 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 25/68 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/136 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Under 1.5 (-278) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -278

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -278 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (86 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 86/140 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/71 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 43/69 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 86/140 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-191) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (53 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/120 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 77/120 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+135) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (67 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/135 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 34/67 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 58/135 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-175) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/136 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/69 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter TB: 46/67 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 90/136 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+135) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/132 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/63 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 51/132 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+121) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/132 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/63 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 31/69 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 51/132 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 (+129) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.611 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/113 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 45/113 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+125) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.408 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/130 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/70 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 52/130 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+133) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+113) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.217 (51 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/131 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 22/68 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 49/131 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+135) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+119) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.250 (102 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/134 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/69 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 51/134 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Under 1.5 (-198) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.411 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 4/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/137 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/67 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 42/70 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 80/137 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/135 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/69 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 29/66 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 51/135 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-119) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/126 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 80/126 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-180) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 84/131 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/70 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 84/131 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+134) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+111) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.252 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 53/141 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 25/72 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 53/141 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-174) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.310 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/138 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 44/67 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 90/138 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 12 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.183
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/138 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/67 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 32/71 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 60/138 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+108) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/135 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/68 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 27/67 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 54/135 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-182) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (85 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 89/139 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/71 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 43/68 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 89/139 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-113) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (61 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/125 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter TB: 21/65 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 55/125 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-152) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/137 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.07 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/71 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 40/66 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 85/137 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (25 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 62/137 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/68 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 62/137 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Roman Anthony Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Gasper Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+139) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+142	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Norby Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (-121) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Thomas Saggese Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Gorman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leonardo Bernal Over 1.5 (+109) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (+102) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (+171) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-184) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/131 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/63 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 39/68 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 84/131 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Under 1.5 (-185) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/125 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/66 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 84/125 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/125 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/62 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 42/125 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 (-199) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -199 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.346 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/131 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/64 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 21/67 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 45/131 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Under 1.5 (-185) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Under 1.5 (-175) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-179) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/134 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/69 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 41/65 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 82/134 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Will Smith Over 1.5 (+143) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 39/137 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/72 over 1.5 (22%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 23/65 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 39/137 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+128) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 (+150) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-115) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/140 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/71 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/69 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 48/140 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+119) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (87 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/138 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/69 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/69 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 48/138 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+110) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+154) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+135) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/132 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 24/68 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 50/132 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 1.5 (+101) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-171) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/136 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/67 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 48/69 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 87/136 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+141) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+104) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.195 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/131 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 35/68 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 61/131 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mark Vientos Under 1.5 (-160) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-149) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Juan Soto Under 1.5 (-154) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Alexander Under 1.5 (-187) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+135	-180	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Under 1.5 (-165) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-194) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+139) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (105 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 17 PA | 8/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.255
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/140 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/72 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 26/68 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 56/140 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.59

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/121 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/64 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 76/121 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-125) diff 199.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Christopher Morel Over 0.5 (-135) diff 195.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+101	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nick Morabito Over 0.5 (-120) diff 195.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-105) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nate Furman Over 0.5 (-105) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-105	-127	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-150) diff 194.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 195% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Edwin Arroyo Over 0.5 (-135) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Oswald Peraza Over 0.5 (-120) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-120) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Adam Frazier Over 0.5 (-115) diff 187.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 187.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 187.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-135) diff 184.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 87/140 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/68 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 44/72 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 87/140 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-125) diff 107.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 65/124 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 35/63 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 65/124 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-130) diff 107.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.186 (21 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/122 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/61 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 31/61 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter TB: 67/122 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (+105) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +340; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-550	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.77
Base projection 0.77 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/130 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/66 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter TB: 36/64 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.84 | Day Batter TB: 64/130 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ K Prop — 24 play(s) (B 5 | C 19)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Max Fried Over 3.5 (-162) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.3% / Under 41.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-162	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	4.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	4.5	+116	-155	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 44.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.54K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.3% / under 41.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.83
Max Fried: K/9 9.1, proj 5.0K over 4.9 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.246 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .744
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/16 (88%) | Season 14/16 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 28.6% vs season 23.9%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chris Sale Over 6.5 (-128) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 1 book | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+145	-215	-
BetOnline	6.5	+100	-130	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-125	-102	-
BetMGM	7.5	+155	-210	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 34.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chris Sale: K/9 11.3, proj 8.7K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.5% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Steven Jaschinski — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 30.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chris Sale: 137 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .227 | OPS .595
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 137 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 29.2%/137 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.2%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.9% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.80 | Season Avg 7.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 30.7%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Rhett Lowder Over 3.5 (-148) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-148	+116	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Rhett Lowder: K/9 6.6, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 16.3% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Jean — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 68 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .311 | OPS .849
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 68 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 27.9%/68 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ryan Feltner Over 3.5 (-146) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+111	-
BetRivers	3.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-146	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.8, proj 4.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Doug Eddings — 9.5 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.06x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.62
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Blake Snell Over 7.5 (-143) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+125	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	7.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	7.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-150	+115	-
DK	7.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-150	+118	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Blake Snell: K/9 10.7, proj 8.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 36.9% | put-away% 21.4% | xwOBA 0.225 | top pitch: Slider (59% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 7.20
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 7.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 3.5 (-152) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+280	-525	-
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	3.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	3.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 27.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.95K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Janson Junk: K/9 5.2, proj 2.6K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.2 outs/4.7 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 15.5% | put-away% 14.1% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brennan Miller — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Changeup: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Janson Junk: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .091 | OPS .258
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.2%, L7 16.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 21.4%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 20.5%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.4% (6/6); lineup K% 20.2% (7/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 9.4% vs season 16.1%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 27.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 27.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Wilkinson Under 3.5 (-106) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-121	-106	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.6% / under 48.4%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matt Wilkinson: K/9 6.9, proj 2.8K over 4.2 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 14.7% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Slider (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 21.2%, L7 25.2%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/3 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Over 3.5 (+105) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	3.5	+107	-139	-
BetRivers	3.5	+107	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	3.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Nick Martinez: K/9 5.8, proj 4.2K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.2% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ryan Wills — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 27% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.104
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 18.2% vs season 14.7%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 (-140) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	-
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
BetRivers	4.5	+118	-157	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+120	-154	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.2, proj 3.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.392 | top pitch: Slider (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 95 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .213 | OPS .548
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 95 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.0%, L7 20.9%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.9%/7 hitters, BVP 17.9%/95 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Erick Fedde Under 3.5 (-172) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 3.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 3.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+320	-600	-
BetMGM	3.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	3.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+134	-172	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 17.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 40.3% / under 59.7%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Erick Fedde: K/9 6.6, proj 2.9K over 4.4 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.1% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .122 | OPS .408
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/29 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 3.03
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 107 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (+105) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +105

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Shota Imanaga: K/9 9.9, proj 6.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Split-Finger (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brennan Miller — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Split-Finger: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.6%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.48
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5
K% trend: support +3.4 ppts (recent 27.4% vs season 24.0%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nolan McLean Under 6.5 (-154) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -154

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 6.17 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+225	-375	-
BetOnline	6.5	+128	-167	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	6.5	+121	-154	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 15.9% vs 17% min; cushion -1.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Nolan McLean: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 21.9% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.37
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.0 ppts (recent 19.7% vs season 26.7%, proj adj -3.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristian Javier Over 3.5 (-166) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-166	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
BetRivers	4.5	+128	-175	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.9% / under 41.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.83
Cristian Javier: K/9 8.4, proj 4.1K over 4.4 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Sweeper (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 36 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .182 | OPS .644
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 16.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 19.4%/36 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 16.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.23
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (-113) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	-114	-114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-113	-113	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 15.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.70K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.4, proj 5.2K over 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tripp Gibson — 8.9 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.02x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zebby Matthews: 69 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .518
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 69 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, top-6 27.1%, BVP 17.4%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 27.1% (5/6); lineup K% 26.3% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.89
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-117) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Ranger Suarez: K/9 7.5, proj 4.7K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adrian Johnson — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 36.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .651
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 54 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
K% trend: headwind -10.0 ppts (recent 13.1% vs season 23.1%, proj adj -5.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Kent Over 3.5 (-105) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	3.5	-113	-118	-
DK	3.5	-105	-121	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	-
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jackson Kent: K/9 8.3, proj 3.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6%, active roster 19.7%/6 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Los Angeles Dodgers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.25 | Season Avg 4.25
Prop trend: K L10: 2/4 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 (-102) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+190	-275	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	6.5	+110	-143	Recommended
DK	6.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	6.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.3, proj 7.1K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Steven Jaschinski — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 113 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 (-105) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 9.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 10.3, proj 7.1K over 6.2 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 25.2% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: Changeup (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Steven Jaschinski — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 113 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/28 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 7.21
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (-143) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/6 OVER | avg line 5.64 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 2 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+130	-180	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-143	+110	Recommended
DK	5.5	-143	+112	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 3/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta -0.17
Jared Jones: K/9 10.5, proj 6.0K over 4.5 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.1% | put-away% 22.8% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 34.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .200
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 24.6%, L7 24.1%, season 25.2% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 3/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.19
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (7 books) | split consensus 50% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Drohan Over 5.5 (-101) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.25
Shane Drohan: K/9 8.8, proj 6.0K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.1% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Jean — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Drohan: 29 PA | K% 27.6% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .308 | OPS .764
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.5%, L7 23.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 27.6%/29 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/27 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.07
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 4.5 (+120) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.42K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Umpire: Chris Segal — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, L7 21.9%, season 19.3%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-142) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+210	-325	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	4.5	-103	-125	-
BetRivers	4.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.1% | put-away% 16.7% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 34.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 125 PA | K% 28.0% | BB% 5.6% | AVG .229 | OPS .747
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.3%, L7 23.4%, season 24.7%, BVP 28.0%/125 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.11
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Over 3.5 (-131) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-130	+101	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.2, proj 3.8K over 4.9 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 13.6% | xwOBA 0.356 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Tyler Jones — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.06
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 (-124) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 6.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -124

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/7 OVER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 6.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-105	-125	Recommended
BetOnline	6.5	-125	-103	-
BetRivers	6.5	-114	-117	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-125	-105	-
DK	6.5	-124	-103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-120	-104	-
Fanatics	6.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.2% / under 47.8%); own-line consensus 4/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Logan Gilbert: K/9 9.2, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 19.6% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 78 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.15
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (8 books) | consensus 57% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 7 play(s) (B 2 | C 5)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+121) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+120	-165	-
BetOnline	18.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	18.5	+117	-157	-
DK	18.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+116	-154	-
Fanatics	18.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.878999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.3%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.1%/113 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.7% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sánchez Over 18.5 (+120) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 21.878999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.51 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.3%, L7 7.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.1%/113 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/28 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 18.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.29 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.5% (1 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Blake Snell Under 17.5 (+122) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-185	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-164	+122	-
DK	17.5	-162	+122	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.359 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 50%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.1 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 8.6%, L7 11.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 1.14x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 15.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/5 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-167) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-154	+116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-167	+125	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 19.13 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nolan McLean: 4 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 19.9%, L7 20.8%, season 21.3% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.4%, L7 12.5%, season 7.4% (adj 1.05x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zebby Matthews Over 17.5 (-105) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
BetOnline	17.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-109	-122	-
DK	17.5	-105	-127	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 18.582 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.03 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zebby Matthews: 69 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, top-6 27.1%, BVP 17.4%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.1%, L7 12.5%, season 9.4%, BVP 7.2%/69 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 27.1% (5/6); lineup K% 26.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Over 17.5 (-105) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-118	-115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-115	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-113	-120	-
DK	17.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	-
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.718 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.47 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/7 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 7.4%, L7 8.1%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 17.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (8 books) | books against us 29% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Gilbert Under 18.5 (-164) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	18.5	+125	-165	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	18.5	+126	-170	-
DK	18.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	18.5	+134	-180	-
Fanatics	18.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.378999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 8.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.7%/78 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 18.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (B 1 | C 7)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (+124) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	-
DK	5.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 (-163) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-155	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 16.1 outs/5.4 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ranger Suarez: 54 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .204 | OPS .651
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 24.9%, L7 25.2%, season 24.4%, BVP 24.1%/54 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Feltner Under 6.5 (-135) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+100	-140	-
DK	6.5	+102	-135	Selected
Fanatics	6.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.9 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.25 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.67, BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sánchez Over 5.5 (+125) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.18, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/28 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-132) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-132	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zebby Matthews: 69 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, top-6 27.1%, BVP 17.4%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 27.1% (5/6); lineup K% 26.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-118) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-113	-118	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.40, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Rhett Lowder: 68 PA | K% 27.9% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .311 | OPS .849
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 24.2%, L7 21.6%, season 21.5%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 27.9%/68 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-153) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 74 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .575
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.7%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Over 5.5 (+116) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 3.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (B 2 | C 15)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 1.5 (-147) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
DK	1.5	-147	+111	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.30 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.51, ERA 2.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 113 PA | K% 16.8% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .385 | OPS 1.011
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.9%, L7 24.8%, season 21.8%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 16.8%/113 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/28 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-124) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	-
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 4.02)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Zebby Matthews: 69 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 7.2% | AVG .159 | OPS .518
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 24.6%, L7 21.9%, season 23.8%, top-6 27.1%, BVP 17.4%/69 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 27.1% (5/6); lineup K% 26.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Over 1.5 (-169) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 4.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 16.2 outs/5.4 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shota Imanaga: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 20.6%, L7 24.7%, season 21.8% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Gilbert Over 1.5 (-116) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.38 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.59, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Gilbert: 78 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 17.7%, L7 20.5%, season 22.5%, BVP 30.8%/78 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kade Morris Over 1.5 (-109) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.39 over 3.4 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 6.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 9.5 outs/3.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 20.4%, L7 27.3%, season 23.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blake Snell Over 1.5 (-102) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.08 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.2% / under 52.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 17 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 17.6% | AVG .214 | OPS .567
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 27.1%, L7 20.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.5%/17 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/5 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erick Fedde Under 2.5 (-127) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-104	-127	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.54 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.72, ERA 3.80)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erick Fedde: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 10.6% | AVG .122 | OPS .408
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 17.7%, L7 16.4%, season 21.0%, top-6 18.5%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/29 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-147) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-175	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 3.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Andre Pallante: 19 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.026
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 22.8%, BVP 15.8%/19 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-119) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.70 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.91, ERA 6.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .194 | OPS .551
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 20.2%, L7 23.5%, season 20.7%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-120) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-118	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.36 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 5.41, ERA 4.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 21.8%, L7 24.0%, season 24.4% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Daniel Lynch IV Over 1.5 (-169) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 3.3 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 4.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.3 IP (HIGH; season 3.1 IP/GS; recent 2.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.1 IP; outs market 12.7 outs/4.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Daniel Lynch IV: 60 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .352 | OPS .907
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.8%, L7 18.3%, season 19.4%, BVP 8.3%/60 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 6/51 (12%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Over 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-104	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.10 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 3.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Nick Martinez: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .326 | OPS 1.104
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.3%, L7 20.9%, season 22.7%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/26 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-103) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-103	-129	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.88 over 4.0 IP (xFIP 4.78, ERA 6.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.0 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 3.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 11.8 outs/3.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 35 PA | K% 31.4% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .226 | OPS .673
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.6%, L7 18.1%, season 20.8%, top-6 22.5%, BVP 31.4%/35 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Kent Over 2.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.93 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 5.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 19.0%, L7 21.6%, season 20.6% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (+107) Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.24 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.77, ERA 1.91)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Chris Sale: 137 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .227 | OPS .595
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 20.6%, L7 17.5%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.9%, BVP 29.2%/137 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.9% (5/6); lineup K% 18.6% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-125) Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	-
DK	2.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 4.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Baz: 74 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .575
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.2%, L7 20.8%, season 21.2%, BVP 25.7%/74 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/27 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Max Fried Under 1.5 (-148) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.82 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Max Fried: 96 PA | K% 21.9% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .289 | OPS .744
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.1%, L7 22.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 21.9%/96 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 23 play(s) (B 1 | C 22)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-269) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +194; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	-
BetOnline	0.5	-263	+194	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
DK	1.5	+197	-269	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.260)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.260 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/138 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 54/71 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 51/67 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.99 | Day Batter Hits: 105/138 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-242) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+179	-242	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brett Bateman Under 1.5 (-254) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+188	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nathan Church Under 1.5 (-244) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -244

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +195; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+180	-244	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bryan Torres Under 1.5 (-211) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -211

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+157	-211	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mickey Moniak Under 1.5 (-227) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+170	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Recommended
DK	1.5	+168	-227	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — George Springer Under 1.5 (-244) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -244

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -244 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+180	-244	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.93 (AVG 0.251)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.269 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 15/36 (42%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 38/48 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 82/108 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-253) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+180	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+187	-253	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.252)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345 (70 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/120 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/56 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 48/64 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 92/120 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Christian Yelich Under 1.5 (-246) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +185; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-250	+185	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+182	-246	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Frelick Under 1.5 (-238) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -238

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+176	-238	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.89 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-183) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -183 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.292)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.216 (61 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/125 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 51/65 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 88/125 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-180) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.245)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 111/140 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 57/71 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.90 | Away Batter Hits: 54/69 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter Hits: 111/140 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-256) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 4/35 (11%) | L5 2/16 (12%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/137 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.01 | Away Batter Hits: 49/66 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 100/137 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-204) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -204 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	1.5	+155	-205	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.260)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/126 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/65 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 45/61 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 93/126 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-251) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.280)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.373 (75 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 103/141 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 50/72 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 53/69 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 103/141 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-154) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	Recommended
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-500	+320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.324 (89 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 7/38 (18%) | L5 1/18 (6%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/140 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 53/72 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 45/68 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 98/140 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-255) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.285 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 14/43 (33%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 93/129 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 46/64 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 93/129 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-241) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.302 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Recent form: L10 14/41 (34%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 89/130 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/68 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 89/130 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-212) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Recommended
DK	1.5	+158	-212	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 8/39 (20%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/122 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/64 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 87/122 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-220) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.310)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.238 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/131 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 37/68 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 78/131 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-187) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.275 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 16/47 (34%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/106 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter Hits: 75/106 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-194) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.289)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.366 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 95/137 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/71 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 44/66 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 95/137 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-241) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+178	-241	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.303)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.450 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 88/135 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/69 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter Hits: 46/66 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter Hits: 88/135 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.498 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.70)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.01x (base lambda 1.489)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blake Snell pitch-quality 0.94x (RV/100 +1.7, xwOBA 0.227, HH% 16.3, mix FF/CU, n=444)
Jackson Kent pitch-quality 1.03x (RV/100 -1.3, xwOBA 0.372, HH% 50.1, mix FF/CH, n=358)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.6 IP)
Washington Nationals bullpen HR 1.06x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blake Snell): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Jackson Kent): 0.0122 HR/BF
Washington Nationals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Washington Nationals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.498 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.70)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.01x (base lambda 1.489)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blake Snell pitch-quality 0.94x (RV/100 +1.7, xwOBA 0.227, HH% 16.3, mix FF/CU, n=444)
Jackson Kent pitch-quality 1.03x (RV/100 -1.3, xwOBA 0.372, HH% 50.1, mix FF/CH, n=358)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.6 IP)
Washington Nationals bullpen HR 1.06x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blake Snell): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Jackson Kent): 0.0122 HR/BF
Washington Nationals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Washington Nationals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.592 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.76)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.95x (base lambda 1.668)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Walker Buehler pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.316, HH% 38.6, mix FC/FF, n=2216)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.242, HH% 30.5, mix FC/SI, n=1359)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.0 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.90, expected pen 3.6 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Walker Buehler): 0.0302 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0078 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.592 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.76)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.95x (base lambda 1.668)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Walker Buehler pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.316, HH% 38.6, mix FC/FF, n=2216)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.242, HH% 30.5, mix FC/SI, n=1359)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.0 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.90, expected pen 3.6 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Walker Buehler): 0.0302 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0078 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Total — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-113) edge 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -113

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 8 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-113	-	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-122	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-125	-	-
BetRivers	8	-112	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jorge De Leon (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Matt Wilkinson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Matt Wilkinson small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-120) edge 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -120

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 7 books | 7.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7	-118	-	-
BetRivers	7	-120	-	-
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-120	-	-
DK	7	-120	-	Selected
LowVig	7	-116	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-117	-	-
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	+100	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kade Morris (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Kade Morris small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-102) edge 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 -121 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7 -102

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 6 books | 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 -121 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 7 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-	-
BetRivers	6.5	-121	-	Recommended
FanDuel	6.5	-122	-	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-125	-	-
BetOnline	7	-103	-	-
BetUS	7	-105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
DK	7	-102	-	Selected
LowVig	7	+100	-	-
MyBookie	7	-102	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Cristopher Sánchez elite xFIP (2.51)
Chris Sale elite xFIP (2.77)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-104) edge 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -104

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 8.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-107	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	8.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-110	-	-
DK	8.5	-104	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	Recommended
LowVig	8.5	-104	-	-
MyBookie	8.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Trevor Williams (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Trevor Williams small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-112) edge 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 9 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-118	-	-
BetOnline	8	-113	-	-
BetRivers	8	-122	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-120	-	-
LowVig	8	-110	-	Recommended
MyBookie	8	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ronny Henriquez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Guerrero (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 101)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+102) edge 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +102

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+103	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-103	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-	-
DK	7.5	+102	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+106	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-102	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Jeremiah Estrada (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Walker Buehler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (+118) edge 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 3.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	3	-125	+105	Recommended
BetUS	3	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	3	-125	-105	-
Caesars	3	-130	+100	-
MyBookie	3	-126	+103	-
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-154	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 3.9 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.51
Chris Sale xFIP 2.77
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 3.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 43.1% (1 books)

▸ F5 ML — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+220) edge 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +235 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +220

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +235 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Blake Snell xFIP 3.82
Jackson Kent xFIP 4.35
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+195) edge 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +200 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +195

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +200 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER)
Logan Gilbert xFIP 3.59
Kade Morris xFIP 4.34
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 95)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP)
Away SP: Kade Morris (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+165) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (F5) | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars +185 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +165

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Caesars +185 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jorge De Leon (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.67
Matt Wilkinson xFIP 4.37
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 50% (team 96)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Matt Wilkinson (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Washington Nationals (+239) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +255 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +239

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +255 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +239 with 16.9% edge (EV $+52.97/$100)
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blake Snell small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)
Jackson Kent small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 63.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 16.7% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +105 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter HR — 245 play(s) (C 245)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 98.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0077
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.245 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 129/130 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/66 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 63/64 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 129/130 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oswald Peraza Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Moore Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adam Frazier Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edwin Arroyo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 16.2% / Under 83.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 5.6% / Under 94.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 94.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (27 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 132/132 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 70/70 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 62/62 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 132/132 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nate Furman Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christopher Morel Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Morabito Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Juan Soto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mark Vientos Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Alexander Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Serna Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brian Navarreto Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Deyvison De Los Santos Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.P. Crawford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brock Rodden Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzel Clarke Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Konnor Griffin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hays Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Samad Taylor Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Thomas Saggese Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Gorman Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adael Amador Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Gasper Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Roman Anthony Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eli White Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Story Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Teel Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Walker Jenkins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-900) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 107 fallback
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cooper Pratt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Frelick Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 6.4% / Under 93.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0455
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (71 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 18 PA | 4/16 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .562
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 126/132 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 67/71 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 126/132 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0458
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.195 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 125/131 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/63 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 125/131 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0565
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.209 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 117/124 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 117/124 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0476
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (18 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 120/126 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 63/65 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 120/126 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0580
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.310 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 130/138 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/71 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 64/67 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 130/138 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0645
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.337 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/124 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 116/124 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 87.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0657
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.338 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 128/137 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/71 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 63/66 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 128/137 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0635
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/126 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/65 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 118/126 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0730
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.243 (25 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/137 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/68 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 127/137 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0698
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 121/129 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 65/69 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 121/129 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0827
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.218 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 13 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 30.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 122/133 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 122/133 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0746
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (62 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 124/134 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/64 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 63/70 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 124/134 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0758
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (64 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 122/132 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 60/64 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 122/132 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.327 (53 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/120 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 112/120 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0662
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.244 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/136 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/69 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 127/136 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0687
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.268 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/131 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 66/70 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 122/131 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.338 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/131 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/63 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 123/131 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0720
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .984
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 116/125 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/66 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 116/125 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0902
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.279 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Gilbert contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Logan Gilbert: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 121/133 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 66/67 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.01 | Day Batter HR: 121/133 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0896
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (20 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/134 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 123/134 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.274 (86 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 121/132 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/66 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 57/66 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 121/132 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0896
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 123/134 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 123/134 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0794
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 116/126 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/67 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 116/126 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1028
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.287 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.344 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/107 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/107 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.420 (78 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 7/20 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .731
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/133 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/64 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 65/69 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 120/133 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1029
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (72 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/136 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/67 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 122/136 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.267 (53 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 13 PA | 6/12 | HR 1 | K% 15.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.212
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 125/138 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/70 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 125/138 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1014
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.476 (87 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 126/138 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 63/69 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 126/138 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1120
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.239 (61 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/125 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 60/65 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 113/125 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1148
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.186 (21 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.370 (73 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-700) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1037
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (67 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .764
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/135 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 122/135 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1259
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.285 (98 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 6/19 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 4.8% | OPS .802
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 119/135 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/67 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 119/135 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.206 (86 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/120 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 106/120 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 127/140 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/71 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 127/140 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1064
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.252 (11 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 127/141 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 127/141 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.530 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Bellinger Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.611 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/113 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 103/113 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1143
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/140 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 125/140 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1143
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.332 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 125/140 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 125/140 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-750) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.398 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.444
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 117/130 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 117/130 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-900) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1223
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.211 (85 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 122/139 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 62/68 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 122/139 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1212
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 117/132 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 63/68 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 117/132 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1194
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.506 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matt Wilkinson contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 119/134 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 119/134 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1269
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.377 (98 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 9 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/134 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/69 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 119/134 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1371
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 5 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.550 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/124 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 108/124 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1377
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.506 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 12 PA | 5/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.183
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 123/138 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 62/71 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 123/138 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 121/136 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 121/136 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.410 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 121/136 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 121/136 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1296
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.348 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1308
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.408 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 9 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .222
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 115/130 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/70 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 115/130 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.634 (32 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/136 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/68 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 120/136 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1606
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.411 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 7 PA | 4/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/137 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/67 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 116/137 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1439
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.347 (55 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 21 PA | 4/19 | HR 0 | K% 23.8% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .607
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/132 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 60/69 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 113/132 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (105 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 17 PA | 8/15 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.255
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 120/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/72 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 60/68 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 120/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-600) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1387
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (44 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 119/137 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/70 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 61/67 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 119/137 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.246 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.90x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Max Fried contact suppression 84, HR vulnerability 16 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Max Fried: 25 PA | 4/21 | HR 1 | K% 12.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .701
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 114/136 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/67 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 56/69 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 114/136 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1374
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.346 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/131 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/64 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 60/67 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 113/131 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1311
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.463 (68 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1571
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.373 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 120/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/69 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 120/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 23 PA | 4/20 | HR 2 | K% 17.4% | BB% 13.0% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/120 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/120 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.315 (77 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .422
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1241
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/137 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 122/137 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Will Smith Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1241
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.638 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 122/137 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 68/72 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 122/137 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1343
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.256 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 117/134 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 60/64 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 117/134 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-900) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1450
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.410 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 12 PA | 6/12 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.583
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/131 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 58/66 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 113/131 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (89 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 121/140 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 121/140 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1653
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/64 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 102/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1704
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.277 (79 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/135 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/69 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/66 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 113/135 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1691
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.252 (104 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/136 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/69 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/67 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 113/136 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.430 (41 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .574
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 118/138 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/68 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 118/138 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/130 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 111/130 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.617 (51 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/130 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 111/130 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-900) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1603
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.174 (70 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 2 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/131 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 112/131 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1642
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.250 (102 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 113/134 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 62/69 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 113/134 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1556
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 115/135 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 115/135 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1556
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 115/135 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 115/135 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1556
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.699 (39 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Trevor Williams: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 115/135 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/69 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 61/66 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 115/135 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1880
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/117 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/117 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1654
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.391 (69 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 112/133 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 57/70 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 112/133 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1680
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1929
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.541 (90 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 15 PA | 2/15 | HR 0 | K% 46.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .267
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 114/140 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/68 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 59/72 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 114/140 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2180
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (89 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/133 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/71 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 106/133 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.393 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 120/138 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 65/72 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 55/66 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 120/138 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1736
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 101/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1736
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.602 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 101/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1716
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.445 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 112/134 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 55/70 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 112/134 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1650
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.376 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/103 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 88/103 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1679
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.217 (51 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 110/131 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 57/68 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 110/131 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1750
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/120 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 100/120 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1964
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (55 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1887
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kade Morris contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1783
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.363 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/129 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/65 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 110/129 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1951
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/123 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/64 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/123 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2101
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (88 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/138 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 112/138 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-475) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 8:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2074
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (84 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/135 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/67 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 108/135 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1951
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.528 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Erick Fedde contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Erick Fedde: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/123 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 101/123 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-600) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1981
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.352 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2214
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (84 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Drohan contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Shane Drohan: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 111/140 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/71 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 111/140 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.431 (95 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 113/136 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/70 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 53/66 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 113/136 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-475) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1825
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.345 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.413 (76 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 35, HR vulnerability 65 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Rhett Lowder: 10 PA | 5/10 | HR 2 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/126 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 103/126 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-550) diff 56.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2340
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 30 PA | 3/21 | HR 0 | K% 23.3% | BB% 30.0% | OPS .638
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 109/141 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 109/141 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Wood Under 0.5 (-900) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2609
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.225 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.86x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.724 (69 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 95, HR vulnerability 5 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2154
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.495 (72 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/130 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/70 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 106/130 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2197
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/132 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 104/132 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2197
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | 2/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/132 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/69 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 104/132 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2270
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.591 (33 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 111/141 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/69 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 58/72 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 111/141 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-475) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2044
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.525 (57 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 109/137 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/71 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/66 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 109/137 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2214
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.356 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.262 (24 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/131 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 52/64 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 105/131 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-475) diff 48.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2256
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.551 (82 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/129 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter HR: 56/68 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 101/129 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-500) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2643
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.387 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Williams contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/72 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 52/68 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 107/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2643
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (55 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | 7/21 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS 1.078
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/140 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/72 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 49/68 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 106/140 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-700) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2612
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (85 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/134 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/63 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 55/71 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 100/134 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-600) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2985
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (98 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chris Sale contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Chris Sale: 21 PA | 5/19 | HR 2 | K% 33.3% | BB% 9.5% | OPS 1.018
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/134 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/65 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 101/134 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-400) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2762
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.326 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.371 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 78/105 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins | Start: 7:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2766
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (75 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 109/141 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 55/69 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 109/141 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-475) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3000
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.555 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/120 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 48/64 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 92/120 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2662
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/139 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 107/139 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.01x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-370) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -370 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2662
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.392 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.619 (64 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 12, HR vulnerability 88 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/139 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/72 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 53/67 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 107/139 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

7 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-113	50.6%	73.1%	+22.5%	$+37.84	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-120	52.0%	71.5%	+19.4%	$+31.04	9	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-102	48.3%	65.4%	+17.2%	$+29.58	9	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-104	48.8%	65.9%	+17.1%	$+29.32	9	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Moneyline	Washington Nationals	DK	+239	28.2%	45.1%	+16.9%	$+52.97	9	Bet on DK
C	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-112	50.4%	66.7%	+16.2%	$+26.18	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+102	47.4%	63.5%	+16.2%	$+28.35	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (7 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (Total) +22.5%

[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jorge De Leon (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Matt Wilkinson (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
New York Mets confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 96)
San Francisco Giants confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.09
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Matt Wilkinson small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +19.4%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kade Morris (RHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs RHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 101 blended 35% (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Kade Morris small sample (14 IP) — stats 17% actual / 83% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (Total) +17.2%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.2 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 108 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.2
Full game weights: starter 68%, bullpen 32%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Cristopher Sánchez elite xFIP (2.51)
Chris Sale elite xFIP (2.77)

C Over 8.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.1%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.7 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Trevor Williams (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 110 (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Trevor Williams small sample (18 IP) — stats 22% actual / 78% league avg (regression applied)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Moneyline) +16.9%

[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Washington Nationals at +239 with 16.9% edge (EV $+52.97/$100)
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 111 blended 35% (team 105)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blake Snell small sample (26 IP) — stats 32% actual / 68% league avg (regression applied)
Jackson Kent small sample (19 IP) — stats 23% actual / 77% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 63.3% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 16.7% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds +105 within price guard (-160 floor)

C Over 8.0 — Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (Total) +16.2%

[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ronny Henriquez (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Guerrero (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Janson Junk (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs LHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Miami Marlins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 101)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres (Total) +16.2%

[IL] Ryan Weathers (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Bradley Hanner (New York Yankees) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Jeremiah Estrada (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Walker Buehler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Max Fried (LHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs LHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

5 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+220	29.4%	47.2%	+17.7%	$+50.99	9	Bet on DK
C	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	+118	43.1%	56.9%	+13.9%	$+24.13	6	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+195	31.9%	45.0%	+13.0%	$+32.64	9	Bet on DK
B	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	8:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-114	50.0%	63.0%	+13.0%	$+18.30	6	Bet on DK
C	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (F5)	7:11 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	DK	+165	35.6%	44.2%	+8.6%	$+17.11	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (5 play(s))

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +17.7%

[OUT] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Blake Snell xFIP 3.82
Jackson Kent xFIP 4.35
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 105)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP)

C Over 3.5 — Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 Total) +13.9%

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 3.9 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Cristopher Sánchez xFIP 2.51
Chris Sale xFIP 2.77
Philadelphia Phillies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 112 (team 99)
Atlanta Braves confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 113 (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 3.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristopher Sánchez (LHP)
Away SP: Chris Sale (LHP)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Seattle Mariners (F5) (F5 ML) +13.0%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER)
Logan Gilbert xFIP 3.59
Kade Morris xFIP 4.34
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 95)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Logan Gilbert (RHP)
Away SP: Kade Morris (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 Total) +13.0%

[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Jameson Taillon (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Daniel Lynch IV xFIP 4.30
Jameson Taillon xFIP 4.78
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 99 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)
Away SP: Jameson Taillon (RHP)

C San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 ML) +8.6%

[INJ] Seth Lonsway (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jorge De Leon (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Nolan McLean xFIP 3.67
Matt Wilkinson xFIP 4.37
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 50% (team 96)
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.00
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect
Home SP: Nolan McLean (RHP)
Away SP: Matt Wilkinson (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

6:11 PM · decision fi-8dff355fc7d345e0

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -102

Raw Edge

-1.1%

Effective Edge

-1.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.4%

Effective Edge

-2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Shane Drohan · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Rhett Lowder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.494
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Drohan / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.494

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Drohan / Rhett Lowder announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-cd43474dd38f070e

YRFI · Grade A

2026 Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Executable Price

Caesars +150

Raw / Effective Edge

+8.6% / +8.6%

Away starter: Chris Sale · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
Grade A: YRFI effective edge 0.0858 after 0.0000 buffer
Chris Sale / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

Grade A reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · PASSGrade A: YRFI effective edge 0.0858 after 0.0000 buffer

Starter status · PASSChris Sale / Cristopher Sánchez announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-180	+140	60.7%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-179	+133	59.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-159	+118	57.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-180	+150	61.6%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:46 PM · decision fi-9fe5dba17dc0cf4c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -106

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ryan Johnson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jared Jones · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Johnson / Jared Jones announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Johnson / Jared Jones announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

7:06 PM · decision fi-1ae386dba141ed85

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -122

Raw Edge

-4.3%

Effective Edge

-4.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +116

Raw Edge

+3.1%

Effective Edge

+2.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ranger Suarez / Shane Baz announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRanger Suarez / Shane Baz announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-148	+116	56.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

7:10 PM · decision fi-2057fa5cf60af285

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.3%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +103

Raw Edge

-0.0%

Effective Edge

-0.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Shota Imanaga · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Janson Junk · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shota Imanaga / Janson Junk announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShota Imanaga / Janson Junk announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-137	+103	54.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-118	49.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

7:11 PM · decision fi-1410ea8f79a87435

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -120

Raw Edge

-3.9%

Effective Edge

-4.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.8%

Effective Edge

-0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Matt Wilkinson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nolan McLean · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Matt Wilkinson / Nolan McLean announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMatt Wilkinson / Nolan McLean announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

7:41 PM · decision fi-f76d5d30235d4d32

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +112

Raw Edge

+3.5%

Effective Edge

+2.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -120

Raw Edge

-5.3%

Effective Edge

-6.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Erick Fedde · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zebby Matthews / Erick Fedde announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZebby Matthews / Erick Fedde announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-105	-127	47.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+112	-142	44.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

8:06 PM · decision fi-787d59fd189b3cb0

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.9%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-2.0%

Effective Edge

-4.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -105

Raw Edge

-0.2%

Effective Edge

-2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Trevor Williams · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.489
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Martinez / Trevor Williams announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.489

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Martinez / Trevor Williams announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-114	-116	49.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

8:10 PM · decision fi-971f112220082fe1

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +124

Raw Edge

+4.4%

Effective Edge

+2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -130

Raw Edge

-5.6%

Effective Edge

-7.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jameson Taillon · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Daniel Lynch IV · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.490
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jameson Taillon / Daniel Lynch IV announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.490

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJameson Taillon / Daniel Lynch IV announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+112	-150	44.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+124	-158	42.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

8:11 PM · decision fi-a9b0a30f7dc38686

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

+1.2%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -118

Raw Edge

-4.3%

Effective Edge

-6.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristian Javier · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Merrill Kelly / Cristian Javier announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMerrill Kelly / Cristian Javier announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-112	-118	49.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+104	-132	46.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

8:41 PM · decision fi-5f6f43875c598fa1

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

44.8%

Fair Odds

+123

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +125

Raw Edge

+0.3%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

55.2%

Fair Odds

-123

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -140

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-4.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Andre Pallante · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.448
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andre Pallante / Ryan Feltner announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.448

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndre Pallante / Ryan Feltner announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+120	-155	42.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+125	-167	41.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+114	-152	43.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+116	-148	43.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-72a65055e314e7d7

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -130

Raw Edge

-5.2%

Effective Edge

-6.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +120

Raw Edge

+3.2%

Effective Edge

+2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Max Fried · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Max Fried / Walker Buehler announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMax Fried / Walker Buehler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-137	+105	54.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-154	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

10:11 PM · decision fi-b4b8ff5a2cd68063

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -135

Raw Edge

-8.2%

Effective Edge

-10.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -10.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +114

Raw Edge

+4.0%

Effective Edge

+2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kade Morris · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Gilbert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.493
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kade Morris / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.493

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKade Morris / Logan Gilbert announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-152	+114	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-148	+110	55.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-c27edf908f99e1d4

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.3%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-2.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +108

Raw Edge

+0.7%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jackson Kent · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Blake Snell · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-09-03 · updated 2026-09-04T20:39:57.625843Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jackson Kent / Blake Snell announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJackson Kent / Blake Snell announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 245 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=245
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	3	Erick Fedde (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	40.4%	22.0%	+18.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	1	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.8%	23.2%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	2	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.4%	23.2%	+15.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.2%	23.2%	+15.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	5	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	36.9%	24.6%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	6	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+700	-	36.5%	11.7%	+24.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:46 PM	-	Ryan Johnson (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.3%	18.8%	+17.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	3	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	36.2%	19.7%	+16.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Cal Raleigh	Seattle Mariners	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	-	Kade Morris (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	35.7%	19.7%	+16.0%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	3	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	35.1%	25.8%	+9.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-	Trevor Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.2%	22.0%	+12.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	2	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	34.0%	16.4%	+17.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	4	Cristopher Sánchez (L)	theScore Bet	+525	-	33.6%	15.0%	+18.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	-	Daniel Lynch IV (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.6%	23.2%	+10.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	33.5%	27.2%	+6.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	-	Kade Morris (R)	theScore Bet	+525	-	33.4%	15.0%	+18.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	3	Andre Pallante (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.6%	23.2%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Walker Buehler (R)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.2%	17.9%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	1	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	31.9%	19.7%	+12.2%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	2	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	31.5%	22.0%	+9.4%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	94.9%	-1864	Kody Clemens, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	100	90.9%	-1002	Kazuma Okamoto, Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	100	90.9%	-998	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Sal Stewart, Brice Turang	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	90.3%	-928	Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, Drake Baldwin, Bryce Harper	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:46 PM	100	89.7%	-868	Brandon Lowe, Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Oneil Cruz	PNC Park HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	89.5%	-854	Jordan Walker, Hunter Goodman, Alec Burleson, Thomas Saggese	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	100	89.2%	-826	Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, Julio Rodriguez	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	100	88.5%	-766	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	100	88.4%	-761	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	87.8%	-717	Rafael Devers, Eddy Alvarez, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor	Citi Field HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 13 mph WNW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	87.7%	-713	Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Elias Diaz, Jonathan Aranda	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.3%	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	100	84.2%	-533	Wilyer Abreu, Pete Alonso, Roman Anthony, Mickey Gasper	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	91	79.7%	-391	Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Spencer Jones, Ty France	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 20.4%, P(U1.5) 52.8%
Pass	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	88	77.6%	-347	Shohei Ohtani, James Wood, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 22.4%, P(U1.5) 55.9%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Kody Clemens — Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (+325) HR chance 40.4% | edge +18.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.195, OPS 0.764, ISO 0.232, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.5/108.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.468
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 22/123 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0416, xFIP 4.72, K% 16.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.331, xERA 4.66, whiff 18.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.784, ISO 0.248 (371 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.528, xwOBA 0.399 (52 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (+300) HR chance 38.8% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.277, OPS 0.946, ISO 0.291, TB/G 2.20
Statcast: barrel 13.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.496
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/141 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0271, xFIP 4.49, K% 16.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.318, xERA 4.27, whiff 15.5%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.066, OPS 0.940, ISO 0.308 (426 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.500, xwOBA 0.373 (75 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (+300) HR chance 38.4% | edge +15.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.182, OPS 0.876, ISO 0.219, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.3/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.470
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 23/126 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 4.72, K% 17.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.345, xERA 5.12, whiff 18.8%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.600, K% 20.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.865, ISO 0.211 (366 PA)

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies (+300) HR chance 38.2% | edge +15.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.204, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.217, TB/G 1.98
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.484
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 28/137 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0437, xFIP 4.91, K% 16.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.40, whiff 23.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.206 (424 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.525, xwOBA 0.366 (57 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Colson Montgomery — Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (+275) HR chance 36.9% | edge +12.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.726, ISO 0.219, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/115.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.408
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/132 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0395, xFIP 4.03, K% 19.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.51, whiff 22.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.795, K% 33.3% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.668, ISO 0.202 (389 PA)

Best HR Chance Braden Montgomery — Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (+700) HR chance 36.5% | edge +24.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.726, ISO 0.219, TB/G 1.63
Statcast: barrel 12.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/115.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.408
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 28/132 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0395, xFIP 4.03, K% 19.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.326, xERA 4.51, whiff 22.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.795, K% 33.3% (12 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.668, ISO 0.202 (389 PA)

Best HR Chance Brandon Lowe — Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+400) HR chance 36.3% | edge +17.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.221, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.228, TB/G 1.89
Statcast: barrel 11.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.0/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.428
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/131 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0516, xFIP 5.54, K% 16.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.356, xERA 5.51, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.895, ISO 0.268 (394 PA)
Park HR factor 0.96

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (+375) HR chance 36.2% | edge +16.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.198, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.468
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 18/106 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0332, xFIP 4.72, K% 17.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.345, xERA 5.12, whiff 18.8%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.667, K% 33.3% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.791, ISO 0.189 (337 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+1400	0.3%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Luis Arraez	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1400	0.7%	Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Leody Taveras	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	+1100	0.9%	Low lineup spot (9) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Xander Bogaerts	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+1100	1.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	+800	1.1%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Low season HR rate \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Jung Hoo Lee	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+1100	1.2%	Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Bryson Stott	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1100	1.4%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA)
Jeff McNeil	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	+900	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate
Mauricio Dubon	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+1100	1.6%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form
Caleb Durbin	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	+1000	1.7%	Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Blake Snell	Jackson Kent	0.97	22.4% MODEL SIGNAL	55.9% MODEL SIGNAL	-	+0.0%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Walker Buehler	Max Fried	0.85	20.4% MODEL SIGNAL	52.8% MODEL SIGNAL	-	+0.0%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	7:06 PM	Shane Baz	Ranger Suarez	1.00	15.8%	44.9%	7.0%	+8.8%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Trevor Williams	Nick Martinez	1.10	12.3%	38.1%	7.9%	+4.4%
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Nolan McLean	Matt Wilkinson	0.93	12.2%	37.9%	7.5%	+4.8%
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	7:10 PM	Janson Junk	Shota Imanaga	0.88	11.6%	36.6%	8.1%	+3.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Cristian Javier	Merrill Kelly	1.00	11.5%	36.5%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	10:11 PM	Logan Gilbert	Kade Morris	0.92	10.8%	34.8%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Ryan Feltner	Andre Pallante	1.20	10.5%	34.1%	10.3%	+0.2%
Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:46 PM	Jared Jones	Ryan Johnson	0.96	10.3%	33.8%	11.9%	-1.6%
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Cristopher Sánchez	Chris Sale	1.10	9.7%	32.4%	10.4%	-0.6%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	Rhett Lowder	Shane Drohan	1.15	9.1%	30.9%	5.4%	+3.7%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	8:10 PM	Daniel Lynch IV	Jameson Taillon	0.93	9.1%	30.9%	8.0%	+1.1%
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Erick Fedde	Zebby Matthews	1.00	5.1%	20.2%	3.9%	+1.1%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (20.3%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (52.8%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.592 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.150, SP_z=-0.76)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.95x (base lambda 1.668)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Walker Buehler pitch-quality 1.00x (RV/100 +0.1, xwOBA 0.316, HH% 38.6, mix FC/FF, n=2216)
Max Fried pitch-quality 0.97x (RV/100 +1.4, xwOBA 0.242, HH% 30.5, mix FC/SI, n=1359)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 0.97x
San Diego Padres bullpen HR 0.95x (vulnerability 0.75, expected pen 4.0 IP)
New York Yankees bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.90, expected pen 3.6 IP)
P(no HR) = 20.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 52.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.85 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Walker Buehler): 0.0302 HR/BF Away SP (Max Fried): 0.0078 HR/BF
New York Yankees Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Diego Padres Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
New York Yankees Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

🔬 MODEL Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (22.4%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (55.9%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.498 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.030, SP_z=-1.70)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.01x (base lambda 1.489)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blake Snell pitch-quality 0.94x (RV/100 +1.7, xwOBA 0.227, HH% 16.3, mix FF/CU, n=444)
Jackson Kent pitch-quality 1.03x (RV/100 -1.3, xwOBA 0.372, HH% 50.1, mix FF/CH, n=358)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.02x
Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen HR 0.98x (vulnerability 0.89, expected pen 3.6 IP)
Washington Nationals bullpen HR 1.06x (vulnerability 1.35, expected pen 3.8 IP)
P(no HR) = 22.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 55.9%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.97 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blake Snell): 0.0000 HR/BF Away SP (Jackson Kent): 0.0122 HR/BF
Washington Nationals Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Los Angeles Dodgers Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Washington Nationals Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

32 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	82.4	78.9	95.0	4	Slider (59% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 36.9%, put-away 21.4%, xwOBA 0.225, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	67.6	54.4	84.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.246, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	67.1	72.3	67.0	3	Changeup (47% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 25.2%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	66.8	66.2	73.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 40% usage)	Savant whiff 30.5%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	61.5	68.6	56.0	4	Changeup (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 31.1%, put-away 22.8%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	58.8	61.7	60.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	58.3	57.7	60.5	6	Slider (40% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.1%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	57.2	59.2	57.0	6	Split-Finger (41% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	55.7	55.2	61.0	7	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	53.7	47.9	58.5	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.6%, put-away 18.9%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Trevor Williams	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	52.9	49.2	52.5	5	Sweeper (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.0%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	51.9	47.5	58.0	6	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 19.6%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	49.7	50.1	50.5	4	Changeup (67% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	49.7	37.3	64.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.287, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	49.2	46.0	52.5	5	Curveball (31% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.5%, put-away 17.4%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	49.1	42.6	55.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	49.0	49.9	53.0	5	Slider (40% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	47.7	47.0	49.0	7	Sweeper (32% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	46.7	56.1	34.5	7	Sweeper (39% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kade Morris	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	45.7	38.5	44.0	6	Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 11.5%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	44.9	38.7	51.0	7	Slider (24% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 16.7%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	44.2	44.1	44.5	6	Slider (35% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matt Wilkinson	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	41.9	28.4	55.0	4	Slider (20% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 14.7%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	40.1	28.7	48.5	6	Changeup (26% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 15.5%, put-away 14.1%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	39.8	32.7	48.0	6	Changeup (31% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.2%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	39.7	54.6	26.0	7	Sweeper (34% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.363, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	39.4	45.1	31.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	39.3	34.5	42.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	38.4	40.9	32.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	38.3	42.1	29.5	4	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 13.6%, xwOBA 0.356, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	37.3	37.6	35.0	6	Slider (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 16.3%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	26.9	40.2	11.5	6	Slider (36% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.392, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

32 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros	R	15.7%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	11.50	88.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kade Morris	Athletics vs Seattle Mariners	R	18.2%	2.8	4.0	5.0	47	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start
Chris Sale	Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	32.0%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.8%	5.5	5.8	5.8	92	normal	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles	L	19.6%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins	L	25.2%	4.4	5.6	5.3	74	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Erick Fedde	Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins	R	17.1%	3.4	4.8	4.5	57	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	16.6%	5.7	5.0	5.1	96	normal	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	21.9%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Logan Allen	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	19.5%	1.8	3.3	4.8	30	short	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.8 IP/start
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	16.4%	4.9	4.9	4.9	82	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Andrew Sears	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.2%	3.1	-	5.4	52	short	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	15.4%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	64.00	36.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	21.1%	4.6	3.9	4.3	77	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	18.3%	2.9	3.1	4.1	49	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	16.1%	5.1	4.8	4.9	86	short	full	29.50	70.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals	L	28.4%	5.2	5.2	5.4	87	normal	full	95.00	5.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs	R	13.8%	4.1	5.1	4.9	69	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Shane Drohan	Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	L	22.6%	4.4	5.2	5.1	74	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox	R	19.6%	6.1	5.9	5.9	102	deep	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.3%	6.0	5.8	6.0	101	deep	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Max Fried	New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres	L	25.6%	4.5	5.6	5.4	76	short	full	84.50	15.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves	L	27.8%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels	R	25.4%	4.0	4.5	4.4	67	short	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees	R	19.3%	5.4	4.9	5.0	91	normal	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Matt Wilkinson	San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	L	18.2%	3.7	3.9	4.9	62	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start
Logan Gilbert	Seattle Mariners vs Athletics	R	25.1%	5.4	5.9	6.0	91	normal	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.6%	6.0	5.7	5.7	101	deep	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	R	15.9%	5.9	5.9	5.9	99	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trevor Williams	Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.4%	2.3	-	5.1	39	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.5%
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.2%	3.4	4.9	4.6	57	short	full	26.00	74.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.4 IP/start
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	20.9%	4.6	4.8	5.2	77	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

8/8 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	21.4	3.9	22.5%	A	BEST_PLAY	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	B	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (7 books) \| books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sánchez	Cristopher Sánchez Over	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.3%	B	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)
Blake Snell	Blake Snell Under	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zebby Matthews	Zebby Matthews Over	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Gilbert	Logan Gilbert Under	Athletics @ Seattle Mariners	18.5	18.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

209 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Sal Stewart	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.81	1.07	0.71	1.03	2.32 / Over	0.30	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Elly De La Cruz	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.68	1.15	0.95	0.57	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.58	1.13	0.81	0.64	2.53 / Over	0.30	season_games=123,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Oneil Cruz	Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.58	1.41	0.64	0.53	2.33 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.56	0.99	0.86	0.71	2.61 / Over	0.30	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jac Caglianone	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.56	1.12	0.65	0.78	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=129,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.53	1.01	0.89	0.63	2.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brandon Lowe	Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.48	1.04	0.68	0.76	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=131,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
James Wood	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.45	0.96	0.87	0.62	2.09 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.45	1.30	0.70	0.45	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=137,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Garcia Jr.	New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.40	1.39	0.55	0.46	2.24 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pete Alonso	Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.40	1.03	0.62	0.74	2.15 / Over	0.30	season_games=141,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.39	1.03	0.83	0.53	2.06 / Over	0.30	season_games=135,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Eddy Alvarez	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.38	1.51	0.45	0.42	2.87 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Francisco Alvarez	San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.38	1.50	0.45	0.43	2.87 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Munetaka Murakami	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.38	0.81	0.81	0.76	2.13 / Over	0.30	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Shohei Ohtani	Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.36	1.07	0.67	0.62	2.62 / Over	0.35	season_games=133,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alex Bregman	Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.35	1.07	0.61	0.67	2.28 / Over	0.30	season_games=138,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.32	0.96	0.59	0.77	2.01 / Over	0.30	season_games=134,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.31	1.15	0.67	0.49	2.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Carter Jensen	Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.30	0.92	0.74	0.65	2.03 / Over	0.30	season_games=131,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.30	1.09	0.56	0.65	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.30	0.93	0.63	0.74	2.18 / Over	0.30	season_games=123,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers	Over 1.5	2.30	1.06	0.61	0.63	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=140,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brooks Lee	Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.29	1.00	0.55	0.75	2.07 / Over	0.30	season_games=134,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

MLB Intel Radar

Keider Montero workload or role risk

Jake Bauers lineup or availability update

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians game or team context update

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds game or team context update

Zebby Matthews workload or role risk

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 4 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes