MLB Bets 2026-08-31

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	139W–87L–0P	62%	-11.59 u	Last 14 days • 226 settled
Grade A	9W–8L–0P	53%	-1.43 u
Grade B	130W–79L–0P	62%	-10.16 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3754W–2362L–8P	61%	-270.64 u	All-time • 6124 settled
Grade A	270W–214L–0P	56%	-12.39 u
Grade B	3482W–2139L–8P	62%	-251.80 u

93 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-19	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-20	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-29	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Feltner	2.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	K Prop	Brandon Pfaadt	3.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	K Prop	Will Dion	3.5	-113	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Anthony Molina	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Clay Holmes	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Harrison	2.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Gusto	2.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Tanner Gordon	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Walbert Urena	2.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Clay Holmes	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ryan Gusto	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-197	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Walks	Peter Lambert	1.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Walks	Robert Stock	2.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-31	Pitcher Walks	Ryan Gusto	0.5	-220	-	PENDING	-

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	602	55%	-22.68u	33	64%	+3.60u	284	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	521	57%	+4.86u	22	50%	-3.36u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	173	58%	+7.01u	3	67%	+0.27u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2084	74%	-55.49u	48	79%	+0.80u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	648	56%	-30.23u	51	51%	-7.39u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	437	61%	-8.85u	21	71%	+3.28u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	35	51%	-1.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	131	47%	-15.70u	3	33%	-0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	62	39%	-13.07u	2	0%	-2.00u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	38	42%	-10.07u	3	0%	-3.00u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	609	52%	-60.11u	8	75%	+2.50u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	3/4	14d sample >= 10
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d sample >= 10

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 22 total candidate(s); season N 602, 14d N 33	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 521, 14d N 22	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d P&L non-negative
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 173, 14d N 3	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; 14d sample >= 10
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 22 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 22/22 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 131, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 0	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 62, 14d N 2	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 38, 14d N 3	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 609, 14d N 8	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 0 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 834 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 231 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 802 pitcher(s), 3566 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 595 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 22 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 24 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 24 roster team(s), 312 hitter(s) \| 22 SP matchup(s), 636 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 312 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 24 team(s) \| Back-to-back: San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Tampa Bay Rays, Miami Marlins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 24 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 20 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 355 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 12/12 game(s) with pitching props \| K 22 line(s)/12 game(s); Outs 22 line(s)/12 game(s); Hits Allowed 22 line(s)/12 game(s); Walks 20 line(s)/11 game(s); Earned Runs 22 line(s)/12 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 103, betmgm 5
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 312 market side(s) checked \| 312 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
⚠	LIMITED	Non-blocking	F5: disabled
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 12 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 641 \| batter bats 349 \| batter hand splits 138 \| pitcher HR splits 53 \| batter pitch-type 595 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 0 batter(s) scored \| 12 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
✓	READY	Available	Core mode: only pitching props are surfaced in ranked plays, tracker saves, and reports
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 162 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves	6:05 PM	+179	-193	1.5 (-131)	-1.5 (+108)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-141	+131	-1.5 (+108)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+157	-169	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+123)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	6:46 PM	+151	-162	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+129)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-109	+102	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs	7:41 PM	-101	-106	-1.5 (+145)	1.5 (-176)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	+108	-116	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+195	-211	1.5 (-122)	-1.5 (+101)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+119	-127	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-130	+121	-1.5 (+108)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 11.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-119	+111	-1.5 (+130)	1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-118	+110	-1.5 (+136)	1.5 (-164)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 15 Grade B | 66 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed	K Prop	Will Dion Over	MAR@NAT	6:46 PM	3.5	4.6	-113	DK Over 3.5 -113 \| exact	30.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (4 play(s))

K Prop - Clay Holmes Over

Projection: 4.0Displayed: Over 3.5 -168Market line: majority 4.5 | avg 4.21Recommended: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.21

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Tanner Gordon Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

Pitcher Hits Allowed - George Kirby Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 6

Pitcher Earned Runs - Elmer Rodriguez Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Will Dion Over 3.5 (-113) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 30.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Dion: K/9 9.9, proj 4.6K over 3.9 IP (default 5.8 IP; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 37.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Dion: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.9%, L7 23.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/18 (22%) | Season 4/18 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (15 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Brandon Pfaadt Over 3.5 (-129) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -129

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-132	+102	-
BetRivers	3.5	-115	-115	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 34.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Brandon Pfaadt: K/9 6.3, proj 4.7K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 26.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, L7 20.1%, season 22.2%, active roster 20.5%/8 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.5% (8 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/24 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael King Under 5.5 (-152) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-152	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.2%, L7 24.5%, season 25.3%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Clay Holmes Under 5.5 (-143) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.1% / under 54.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 43 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .162 | OPS .559
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.9%, L7 18.4%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.6%/43 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Gusto Under 5.5 (-157) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 4.2 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .281 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 18.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/18 (83%) | Season 15/18 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Ryan Gusto Over 0.5 (-220) diff 182.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 64.4% / Under 35.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-220	+163	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-215	+145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4138381712841817 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 4.2 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 64.4% / under 35.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .281 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 18.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 11.5%, season 9.1%, BVP 5.7%/35 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-220); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael King Over 1.5 (-197) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-197	+147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5024763574072955 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 5.6 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.1% / under 37.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.2%, L7 24.5%, season 25.3%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 8.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 10.5%/57 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-197) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Peter Lambert Over 1.5 (-200) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.4% / Under 37.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-200	+149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2590850285947934 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.4% / under 37.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.7%, L7 22.1%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 10.8%, L7 11.6%, season 9.3% (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Robert Stock Under 2.5 (-171) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.735166330668643 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 30.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.2 IP (BB% 9.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.2%, split 15.3%, L7 15.3%, season 18.6% (adj 0.83x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.0%, L7 8.8%, season 8.6% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/5 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-171); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Harrison Under 2.5 (-152) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+115	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 44.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.76 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.08, ERA 2.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 46 PA | K% 41.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.5%, L7 15.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 41.3%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 17/21 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-158) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.59 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.57, ERA 4.07)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/41 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Gordon Under 3.5 (-135) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.5 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 28.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.71 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 5.00)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.8%, L7 25.6%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.63
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Molina Under 2.5 (-175) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 3.6 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 3.73)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.6 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 2.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 10.5 outs/3.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Molina: 11 PA | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 21.8%, L7 22.0%, season 21.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/4 (100%) | L10 4/4 (100%) | L20 4/4 (100%) | Season 4/4 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.75 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/4 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 (-159) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+119	-159	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.00 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 3.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.3 IP; outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .281 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 18.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-125) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.33 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 2.62)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 43 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .162 | OPS .559
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.9%, L7 18.4%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.6%/43 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/13 (85%) | Season 11/13 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Walbert Urena Under 2.5 (-148) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.73 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 3.32)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 19.8%, season 24.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (66 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 20 play(s) (B 2 | C 18)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 5.5 (-162) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 5.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5.83 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 5.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-159	+122	Recommended
DK	5.5	-162	+127	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	6.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	6.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.4% / under 41.6%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); DK LOWER delta -0.40
Ian Seymour: K/9 11.2, proj 6.6K over 5.2 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.2% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/41 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.80 | Season Avg 3.12
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +3.68 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Payton Tolle Under 6.5 (-108) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Under 6.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Under 6.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+180	-260	-
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-118	-110	-
BetRivers	6.5	-132	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-118	-108	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.0% / under 49.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Payton Tolle: K/9 10.6, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 27.2% | put-away% 22.9% | xwOBA 0.256 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 28 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .280 | OPS .757
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 22.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.4%, active roster 21.1%/6 hitters, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Seattle Mariners 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 30.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.20 | Season Avg 6.41
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
K% trend: support +4.9 ppts (recent 32.8% vs season 27.9%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Aaron Nola Over 4.5 (-125) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+150	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 20.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Aaron Nola: K/9 10.3, proj 5.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.5% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Curveball (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Curveball: 24.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .659
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 135 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 19.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 20/27 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.67
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
K% trend: support +6.6 ppts (recent 31.4% vs season 24.8%, proj adj +3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 20.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Stock Under 3.5 (-164) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-500	-
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	3.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+128	-164	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-148	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Robert Stock: K/9 8.9, proj 2.8K over 4.3 IP (season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 11.9% | xwOBA 0.339 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 17.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.1%, split 15.3%, L7 15.3%, season 18.6%, active roster 15.5%/6 hitters (adj 0.83x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.20
Prop trend: K L10: 1/5 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.91) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Taj Bradley Over 5.5 (-102) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-118	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 19.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 2/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Taj Bradley: K/9 10.3, proj 6.6K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Split-Finger (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 44.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .754
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 25.7%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/26 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 (-111) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-120	-110	-
DK	6.5	-111	-114	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	6.5	-118	-108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 7.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jacob deGrom: K/9 11.5, proj 7.6K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 34.0% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .087 | OPS .386
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.4%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 37.5%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Kirby Over 4.5 (-119) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	4.5	-118	-110	-
BetRivers	4.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
George Kirby: K/9 7.2, proj 5.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 59 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 59 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.7%/59 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Clay Holmes Over 3.5 (-168) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -168

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 3.5 +260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-168	+131	Selected
theScore Bet	3.5	+260	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	4.5	+134	-175	-
BetRivers	4.5	+120	-159	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.2% / under 40.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.83
Clay Holmes: K/9 6.5, proj 3.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.7% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 43 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .162 | OPS .559
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.9%, L7 18.4%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.6%/43 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.23
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 112 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Elmer Rodriguez Over 4.5 (+110) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	4.5	+125	-167	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Elmer Rodriguez: K/9 7.4, proj 4.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Curveball (59% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Curveball: 36.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 24.4%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/5 (20%) | L20 1/5 (20%) | Season 1/5 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.20
Prop trend: K L10: 1/5 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Under 3.5 (-117) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	3.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	3.5	-108	-120	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	-
DK	3.5	-109	-117	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jackson Jobe: K/9 8.1, proj 3.2K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.5% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Changeup: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.8%, L7 17.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 1/4 (25%) | L10 1/4 (25%) | L20 1/4 (25%) | Season 1/4 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.75 | Season Avg 3.75
Prop trend: K L10: 1/4 under 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Gordon Under 4.5 (-109) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	-
BetMGM	4.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-114	-114	-
BetRivers	4.5	+105	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tanner Gordon: K/9 6.8, proj 4.2K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.0% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.8%, L7 25.6%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.63
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Over 4.5 (+120) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 4.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books | 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -175 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-175	+130	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.40
Brady Singer: K/9 7.0, proj 4.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.345 | top pitch: Sweeper (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 51 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.31
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gage Jump Under 5.5 (-109) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+190	-275	-
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-112	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 1/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Gage Jump: K/9 10.2, proj 5.1K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Slider (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 35.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .130 | OPS .520
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 23.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, active roster 19.1%/6 hitters, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.8%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 5.5 (-102) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-105	-123	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.37K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.0, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.1% | put-away% 18.6% | xwOBA 0.292 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 31.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 24.7%, L7 22.1%, season 23.8%, active roster 26.3%/6 hitters (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 22.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael King Under 5.5 (-111) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+150	-220	-
BetMGM	5.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+100	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	-
DK	5.5	-115	-111	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Michael King: K/9 7.8, proj 5.3K over 5.9 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 57 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.2%, L7 24.5%, season 25.3%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Harrison Over 5.5 (+118) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
BetRivers	5.5	+118	-157	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+118	-151	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.3% / under 56.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Kyle Harrison: K/9 11.0, proj 5.6K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.0% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.280 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 19.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.91x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 46 PA | K% 41.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .468
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.5%, L7 15.8%, season 21.6%, active roster 20.3%/7 hitters, BVP 41.3%/46 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 110 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.91) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (+133) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+130	-170	-
DK	4.5	+133	-171	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+134	-172	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.5% / under 59.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Elder: K/9 6.9, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.048
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.72
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 (+128) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +128

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 3.33 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-147	+113	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-164	+128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.07K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.6% / under 41.4%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Ryan Gusto: K/9 7.6, proj 3.4K over 4.5 IP (season 4.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.1 outs/5.0 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.326 | top pitch: Cutter (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Cutter: 22.6% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 35 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .281 | OPS .596
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 21.4%, L7 18.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/35 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.94
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Over 4.5 (+121) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.33 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	4.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+121	-154	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.2, proj 4.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 18.7%, L7 22.1%, season 21.6%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.4%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/27 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walbert Urena Over 5.5 (+100) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 -190 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.21 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 -190 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-190	+140	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-106	-122	-
BetRivers	5.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+100	-127	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Walbert Urena: K/9 9.0, proj 5.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Changeup: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 19.8%, season 24.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 9 play(s) (C 9)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob deGrom Under 17.5 (+105) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.9 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 65)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.0 | pitch-count proxy 65
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .087 | OPS .386
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.4%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 37.5%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 16.0%, L7 6.7%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.30 | Season Avg 15.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ian Seymour Under 17.5 (-122) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.3 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 16.5 +116; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	16.5	-158	+116	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-125	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 15.705 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.57 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.3 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.7 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 4.9 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.6%, L7 7.2%, season 8.5% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.7 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 35/41 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.30 | Season Avg 7.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +7.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brady Singer Under 17.5 (+104) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.887 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.42 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 11.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 0.0%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/26 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.00 | Season Avg 15.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.15 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Payton Tolle Over 17.5 (-135) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-135	+102	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-130	-102	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.771 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 28 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .280 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.4%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.0%, L7 10.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 17.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Aaron Nola Under 17.5 (-138) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.1 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books | 16.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 16.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	16.5	-130	-105	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	16.5	-130	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	+105	-145	-
DK	17.5	+104	-138	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.424 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.75 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 17.1 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 19.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.3%, L7 7.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.9%/135 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 15.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Elder Over 17.5 (-109) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-106	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.433 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.048
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.0%, L7 9.6%, season 7.2%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.50 | Season Avg 17.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Over 17.5 (-110) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
DK	17.5	-110	-121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.875999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 59 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.7%/59 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.2%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.4%/59 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.72
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Taj Bradley Under 17.5 (+113) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +113

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-150	+113	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+110	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.23 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.1% / under 43.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .754
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 25.7%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.6%, L7 6.2%, season 9.2%, BVP 10.9%/46 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Over 17.5 (-138) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
DK	17.5	-138	+104	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-132	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.672 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.31 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.2%, L7 24.5%, season 25.3%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 11.1%, L7 8.3%, season 9.5%, BVP 10.5%/57 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 18/27 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 17.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (+120) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 6.1 IP (WHIP 1.04, BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.2% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.18 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Under 5.5 (-139) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.6% / under 54.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.048
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (-130) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+110	-
DK	5.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.10 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Gordon Over 5.5 (-185) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.20 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.38, BB% 4.1%)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.4% / under 39.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Gordon: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .300 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 22.8%, L7 25.6%, season 24.5% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.53
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Aaron Nola Over 5.5 (+117) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 19.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Under 6.5 (-160) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.4 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 1.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.17 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.4% / under 57.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 6 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 59 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.7%/59 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.853093175226987 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 28 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .280 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.4%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.0%, L7 10.3%, season 9.0%, BVP 10.7%/28 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Aaron Nola Over 1.5 (-167) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8054561104828186 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.4 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 19.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 10.3%, L7 7.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 5.9%/135 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/27 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — George Kirby Under 1.5 (-159) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2132788250326756 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 59 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.7%/59 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 7.2%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 3.4%/59 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Elder Over 1.5 (-107) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7762343319138956 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.048
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.0%, L7 9.6%, season 7.2%, BVP 8.7%/23 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Elmer Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-168) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -168 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.048984212178725 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 18.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.41 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 24.4%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 11.8%, L7 8.3%, season 8.3% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Anthony Kay Over 1.5 (-178) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-178	+134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7419462164303634 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.02x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.7%, L7 22.1%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 8.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.8% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 15/27 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Walbert Urena Over 2.5 (+112) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.886897908038099 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.55 over 4.8 IP (BB% 12.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 20.3%, L7 19.8%, season 24.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.5%, L7 9.1%, season 9.8% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Brady Singer Over 1.5 (-144) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7202869132618355 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.3 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.9%, L7 11.5%, season 9.3%, BVP 0.0%/51 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/26 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Clay Holmes Under 2.5 (-165) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 2.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.154629859418673 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 43 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .162 | OPS .559
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 23.9%, L7 18.4%, season 21.4%, BVP 18.6%/43 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.4%, L7 9.2%, season 10.6%, BVP 11.6%/43 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Kyle Harrison Under 1.5 (-122) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.36669818698315 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 4.6 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 46 PA | K% 41.3% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .159 | OPS .468
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.5%, L7 15.8%, season 21.6%, BVP 41.3%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 10.5%, L7 9.3%, season 10.6%, BVP 4.3%/46 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jackson Jobe Over 1.5 (-167) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-167	+126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5745266904416644 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.8%, L7 17.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.7%, L7 5.9%, season 8.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/4 (50%) | L10 2/4 (50%) | L20 2/4 (50%) | Season 2/4 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/4 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-192) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+144	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4050340081870516 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 3.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 5.3 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .754
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 25.7%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.6%, L7 6.2%, season 9.2%, BVP 10.9%/46 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/26 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Will Dion Under 1.5 (-229) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.45174201915564 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 3.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 34.8% / under 65.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Dion: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.9%, L7 23.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 9.4%, L7 12.9%, season 9.2% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/18 (83%) | Season 15/18 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Gage Jump Over 2.5 (+120) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5662796218491075 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.47 over 4.8 IP (BB% 10.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .130 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 23.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 8.9%, L7 11.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-104) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5356075191303442 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 4.7 IP (BB% 6.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.7% / under 52.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .087 | OPS .386
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.4%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 37.5%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 16.0%, L7 6.7%, season 8.7%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ian Seymour Under 1.5 (-140) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.4673462891400488 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.9 IP (BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.4% / under 54.6%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 21.1%, L7 24.4%, season 22.7% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 8.6%, L7 7.2%, season 8.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 32/41 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 (-116) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.21, ERA 5.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob deGrom: 24 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .087 | OPS .386
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.4%, L7 24.2%, season 22.4%, BVP 37.5%/24 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Payton Tolle Over 1.5 (-164) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.96 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 2.84)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Payton Tolle: 28 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .280 | OPS .757
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.2%, L7 30.2%, season 23.4%, BVP 7.1%/28 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brady Singer Over 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.82 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.42, ERA 4.79)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 51 PA | K% 23.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .529
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.8%, L7 19.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.5%/51 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-126) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.90 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 3.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 57 PA | K% 19.3% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .196 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 23.2%, L7 24.5%, season 25.3%, BVP 19.3%/57 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/27 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Under 2.5 (-109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-118	-
DK	2.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.82, ERA 4.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 59 PA | K% 23.7% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .214 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.2%, season 21.3%, BVP 23.7%/59 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/25 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-143) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 4.64)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 24.7%, L7 22.1%, season 23.8% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Over 2.5 (+100) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 6:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 3.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 23 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 8.7% | AVG .300 | OPS 1.048
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 20.0%, L7 22.6%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.7%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Taj Bradley Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-103	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.89, ERA 4.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Taj Bradley: 46 PA | K% 21.7% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .256 | OPS .754
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.3%, L7 25.7%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.7%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 16/26 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Jobe Under 2.5 (-141) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 4.19)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/4 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 5 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.8%, L7 17.3%, season 21.1% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gage Jump Under 2.5 (-148) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-148	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.49 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 5.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Gage Jump: 27 PA | K% 7.4% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .130 | OPS .520
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 23.2%, L7 20.4%, season 22.8%, BVP 7.4%/27 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Elmer Rodriguez Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.55, ERA 4.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.7 outs/4.9 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 94)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 24.4%, season 25.1% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Stock Under 2.5 (-124) Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.23 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.47, ERA 5.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.1 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Stock: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.2%, split 15.3%, L7 15.3%, season 18.6% (adj 0.83x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Will Dion Under 1.5 (-105) Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 3.57)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; default 5.0 IP; recent 2.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 11.5 outs/3.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Will Dion: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 17.9%, L7 23.3%, season 21.8% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Under 2.5 (-142) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.62, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 11 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .182 | OPS .455
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.7%, L7 22.1%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/27 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Aaron Nola Under 2.5 (-147) Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 4.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Aaron Nola: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .240 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 17.6%, split 16.3%, L7 19.5%, season 19.2%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/27 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

F5 BETS — DETAIL

0 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

No bets meet the threshold today.

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

No first-inning decisions were produced for this slate.

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR model skipped or unavailable for this run.

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

No games scored — model may have been skipped or data unavailable.

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

22 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	68.1	60.9	79.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 45% usage)	Savant whiff 27.2%, put-away 22.9%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	64.4	74.3	59.0	5	Changeup (46% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 34.0%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Dion	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	63.6	61.2	69.5	5	Changeup (42% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	63.4	62.5	67.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 29.0%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	59.4	57.5	63.5	4	Changeup (35% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	59.3	61.1	60.5	7	Changeup (39% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 28.2%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	56.6	52.5	61.5	7	Changeup (35% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 25.1%, put-away 18.6%, xwOBA 0.292, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	56.1	58.2	55.5	4	Split-Finger (37% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	53.4	56.5	50.0	6	Curveball (43% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 26.5%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	50.9	53.2	48.5	6	Slider (27% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	50.5	45.2	55.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	49.4	47.3	53.0	5	Changeup (32% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	48.4	50.6	48.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (28% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	47.0	45.2	46.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 22.0%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	46.1	40.7	53.5	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	44.2	43.7	44.5	7	Cutter (28% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.326, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Elmer Rodríguez	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	43.4	55.5	30.0	5	Curveball (59% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	42.9	47.0	37.5	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	42.7	48.2	35.0	5	Sweeper (41% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.345, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	41.2	42.3	38.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 11.9%, xwOBA 0.339, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	34.7	37.1	27.0	5	Changeup (43% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.5%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	29.5	27.2	30.0	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 6.0%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

22 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Gage Jump	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	L	25.0%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants	R	18.1%	6.0	5.8	5.8	101	deep	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Payton Tolle	Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners	L	29.6%	6.0	5.7	6.0	101	deep	full	79.50	20.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	17.6%	5.3	5.8	5.7	89	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros	L	18.0%	5.5	5.0	5.1	92	normal	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	R	17.5%	5.8	5.3	5.4	97	normal	full	35.00	65.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tanner Gordon	Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles	R	17.5%	5.0	5.0	5.2	84	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.6%	4.3	4.6	5.1	72	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.7%	4.7	5.6	5.4	79	short	full	61.50	38.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Walbert Ureña	Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees	R	23.0%	4.5	5.2	5.1	76	short	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals	R	19.1%	4.7	4.2	4.3	79	short	full	44.50	55.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs	L	29.4%	4.6	4.9	4.9	77	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.6%
Taj Bradley	Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers	R	26.1%	5.2	5.7	5.6	87	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.3%	4.0	4.1	4.8	67	short	full	38.00	62.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.6%
Elmer Rodríguez	New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels	R	18.6%	4.5	4.6	5.0	76	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Aaron Nola	Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	27.1%	5.8	5.3	6.0	97	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds	R	21.3%	6.0	5.8	5.8	101	deep	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.5%
Anthony Molina	San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves	R	16.6%	2.3	-	5.1	39	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.3 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox	R	18.8%	5.3	5.9	5.8	89	normal	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets	L	29.5%	5.6	4.7	4.9	94	normal	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob deGrom	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	R	29.2%	3.9	5.2	5.0	65	short	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Will Dion	Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	L	27.3%	2.7	-	5.1	45	short	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob deGrom	Jacob deGrom Under	Athletics @ Texas Rangers	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.0	65	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min
Ian Seymour	Ian Seymour Under	New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	4.9	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.79 <= 3 min
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Payton Tolle	Payton Tolle Over	Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Aaron Nola	Aaron Nola Under	Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.4	-1.1	6.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Elder	Bryce Elder Over	San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Over	Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Taj Bradley	Taj Bradley Under	Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael King	Michael King Over	San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes