MLB Bets 2026-08-18

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	610W–346L–0P	64%	-86.98 u	Last 14 days • 956 settled
Grade A	17W–20L–0P	46%	-8.11 u
Grade B	591W–319L–0P	65%	-74.43 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3634W–2287L–8P	61%	-263.56 u	All-time • 5929 settled
Grade A	261W–209L–0P	56%	-13.97 u
Grade B	3371W–2069L–8P	62%	-243.15 u

102 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-357	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-322	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-16	Batter Walks	Victor Bericoto	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-17	Batter Walks	Max Kepler	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter H+R+RBI	Wilyer Abreu	1.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Total Bases	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Sam Antonacci	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Batter Walks	Yordan Alvarez	0.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	F5 Total	Under	6.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Jack Perkins	3.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Braxton Ashcraft	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Bryce Miller	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Carlos Rodon	1.5	-116	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Foster Griffin	1.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Leahy	1.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Braxton Ashcraft	5.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Pitcher Hits Allow	Keider Montero	5.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-18	Run Line	Minnesota Twins	+1.5	-157	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-17	K Prop	Blake Snell	6.5	-148	-	LOSS	-1.000	Blake Snell: 5.0 (line 6.5)
2026-08-17	K Prop	Nolan McLean	5.5	-140	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nolan McLean: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-08-17	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	7.5	118	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cristopher Sánchez: 6.0 (line 7.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

18 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	569	55%	-26.28u	57	44%	-14.53u	270	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	499	58%	+8.22u	46	61%	+2.01u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	170	58%	+6.74u	10	70%	+2.22u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	2036	73%	-56.28u	493	72%	-33.71u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	597	57%	-22.84u	92	58%	-3.85u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	416	60%	-12.12u	47	55%	-5.21u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	55	71%	-0.17u	4	75%	+0.23u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	11	27%	-5.27u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	4
YRFI	👀 WATCH	4	50%	-2.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	128	48%	-14.91u	13	46%	-3.04u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	5	40%	-1.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	35	46%	-7.07u	10	20%	-6.38u	1	0%	6
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	1	0%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	601	51%	-62.62u	35	43%	-9.52u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 569, 14d N 57	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 499, 14d N 46	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 170, 14d N 10	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 31 total candidate(s); season N 55, 14d N 4	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 256 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 6 total candidate(s); season N 128, 14d N 13	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 1, 14d N 1	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 1 actionable / 99 total candidate(s); season N 601, 14d N 35	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 99 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 802 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 779 pitcher(s), 3447 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 587 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1315 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 343 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 29 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 25 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 21 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 22 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 72, fanatics 17, fanduel 5, bovada_direct 3
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2646 market side(s) checked \| 2646 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 18 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 13 game(s) fetched \| 13 with ML odds \| 13 with total odds \| 6 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 99 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 637 \| batter bats 404 \| batter hand splits 141 \| pitcher HR splits 57 \| batter pitch-type 587 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 253 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow blocked: 183 raw record(s) assembled \| no release created \| CALIBRATION_ARTIFACT_MISSING

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+143)	1.5 (-174)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-123	+102	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+158	-193	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+205	-254	1.5 (-104)	-1.5 (-116)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	+119	-144	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+141	-171	1.5 (-149)	-1.5 (+124)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+130)	1.5 (-157)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+119	-143	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+134	-162	1.5 (-173)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+141	-171	1.5 (-155)	-1.5 (+128)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+134	-162	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+142	-172	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-193	+158	-1.5 (-125)	1.5 (+104)	O/U 11.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

0 Grade A | 31 Grade B | 924 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (26 play(s))

Batter Hits - Maikel Garcia Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Nick Sogard Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - JJ Wetherholt Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Jac Caglianone Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Jung Hoo Lee Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Taylor Trammell Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Zach McKinstry Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Max Clark Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Liam Hicks Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Carson Benge Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jackson Holliday Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - George Lombard Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Michael Massey Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jesus Sanchez Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -165Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Luis Robert Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Luis Campusano Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jake Cronenworth Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Austin Hays Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ernie Clement Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kazuma Okamoto Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Marcus Semien Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Torkelson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cedric Mullins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

No Grade A signals today.

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (31 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Jack Perkins Over 3.5 (-132) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-132	+103	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 48.8% vs 17% min; cushion +1.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.6% / under 46.4%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jack Perkins: K/9 9.7, proj 5.2K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.318 | top pitch: Changeup (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 26.4%, season 21.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/29 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 3.24
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.86 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.4 ppts (recent 19.6% vs season 25.0%, proj adj -2.7%)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -132, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.71K, diff 48.8%, books 100%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 3.5 (-147) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+104	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 37.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 18.5%, season 21.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -147, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 3.5 (-135) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 36.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.1% / under 45.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, L7 18.7%, season 19.3% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 (-121) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 21.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Braxton Ashcraft: K/9 9.5, proj 6.7K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Curveball: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.1%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 6.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Keider Montero Under 5.5 (-164) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+125	-165	-
DK	5.5	+123	-164	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.78 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.02, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .184 | OPS .488
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.3%, L7 23.3%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 20/26 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 (-141) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.10, BB% 5.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.1%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 6 play(s) (B 6)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Over 1.5 (-170) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.84 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.4%, L7 19.7%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Over 1.5 (-165) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.68 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.75, ERA 2.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .843
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 1.5 (-167) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-167	+125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.35 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.17, ERA 4.32)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.1%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-140) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.83 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.98, ERA 5.06)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.171
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Carlos Rodon Over 1.5 (-116) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 61 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .883
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 23.5%, season 24.3%, BVP 29.5%/61 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.89 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (-135) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.47 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.63, ERA 4.35)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .172 | OPS .545
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 23.9%, L7 26.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season

▸ Batter Walks — 15 play(s) (B 15)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-120) diff 96.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.77
Base projection 0.77 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 22 PA | 1/18 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 13.6% | OPS .283
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.77
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/55 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.77

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-450) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter Walks: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/123 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/62 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 64/123 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-450) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/119 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 103/119 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-525) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.144
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 91/115 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 91/115 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-525) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/125 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 98/125 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-550) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/125 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 98/125 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-500) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-550) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.867 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-425) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/124 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 99/124 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-300) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 104/123 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 104/123 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-320) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-320) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/118 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 92/118 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-240) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 83/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-240) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/116 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 96/116 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-150) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.384, xSLG 0.565 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/122 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 63/122 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -150 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Batter Total Bases — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-128) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 57/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.24

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 6.5 6.5 (-118) edge 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-105	-125	-
FanDuel	6.5	-110	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	6.5	-102	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.9 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.98
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.38
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Minnesota Twins +1.5 1.5 (-157) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Minnesota Twins 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -157

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Minnesota Twins 1.5 -145 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+12.69/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 10.4% ≥ 5%
✓ Minnesota Twins home RL 83% (6 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -157 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Zebby Matthews (RHP) | opp wRC+ 107 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Tyler Mahle (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Heavy juice (-157); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (924 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 25 play(s) (B 6 | C 19)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Carson Whisenhunt Over 3.5 (-115) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 3.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-115	-111	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 25.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.89K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.4% / under 49.6%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carson Whisenhunt: K/9 8.1, proj 4.4K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.364 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 28.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 17.1%, L7 15.8%, season 21.8%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.5%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.67 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: K L10: 3/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 25.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 25.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 (+127) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+127	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-158	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 23.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carlos Rodon: K/9 9.8, proj 6.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 21.0% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Carlos Rodón: 61 PA | K% 29.5% | BB% 8.2% | AVG .250 | OPS .883
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.2%, split 23.1%, L7 23.5%, season 24.3%, BVP 29.5%/61 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/9 (67%) | L20 6/9 (67%) | Season 6/9 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.78 | Season Avg 5.78
Prop trend: K L10: 6/9 over 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 4.5 (-146) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-137	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.9, proj 5.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.9% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 100 PA | K% 31.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .561
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.2%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 31.0%/100 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-125) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-102	-125	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 10.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.9, proj 3.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.5% | put-away% 14.4% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 93 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .939
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 18.8%, L7 17.3%, season 19.6%, BVP 9.7%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.39
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 (-166) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 6.83 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-170	+130	-
FanDuel	6.5	-166	+130	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	7.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.2K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 10.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.68K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.9% / under 41.1%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); DK LOWER delta -0.50
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.1, proj 7.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.9% | put-away% 22.6% | xwOBA 0.260 | top pitch: Split-Finger (46% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 65 PA | K% 33.9% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .220 | OPS .733
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 33.9%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/20 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.50 | Season Avg 6.85
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cristian Javier Over 4.5 (-134) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristian Javier: K/9 7.8, proj 4.6K over 4.3 IP (season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.7% | put-away% 12.9% | xwOBA 0.367 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 87 PA | K% 32.2% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .535
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.7%, L7 22.7%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.2%/87 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/10 (10%) | Season 1/10 (10%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: K L10: 1/10 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 19.8% vs season 16.8%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — - Jackson Kent Over 4.5 (+145) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, L7 24.2%, season 21.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Keider Montero Over 3.5 (-128) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-116	-111	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	3.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Keider Montero: K/9 5.8, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.5% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .184 | OPS .488
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 40 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.3%, L7 23.3%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/26 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 (-119) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -119

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-107	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.8% / under 51.2%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 9.0, proj 3.5K over 4.7 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Curveball: 24.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 85 PA | K% 11.8% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .405 | OPS 1.035
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 85 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.9%, split 16.1%, L7 18.7%, season 19.3%, BVP 11.8%/85 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 under 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 (-137) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-136	+108	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.3, proj 4.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.397 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.171
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 3.73
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
K% trend: support +3.1 ppts (recent 18.2% vs season 15.1%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 (-101) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -101

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
DK	3.5	-126	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-102	-
Fanatics	3.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 15.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cal Quantrill: K/9 7.1, proj 2.9K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 41 PA | K% 14.6% | BB% 4.9% | AVG .282 | OPS .753
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.4%, L7 24.2%, season 21.6%, BVP 14.6%/41 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/25 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 22.0% vs season 16.4%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-117) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-109	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.82K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 7.1, proj 4.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 25.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.4%, L7 19.7%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.21
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
K% trend: headwind -8.9 ppts (recent 13.2% vs season 22.1%, proj adj -4.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Abbott Under 4.5 (-112) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-114	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Abbott: K/9 6.6, proj 3.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Changeup (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .601
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 93 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.08
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 4.5 (-105) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-110	-118	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-105	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.1, proj 5.1K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 31.3% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 25.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 52 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .319 | OPS .734
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 15.6%, L7 15.5%, season 18.8%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 21.1%/52 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 15.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.4 ppts (recent 17.8% vs season 24.2%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (+109) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-130	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.71K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.0, proj 6.2K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.262 | top pitch: Split-Finger (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 37.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 30 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .172 | OPS .545
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.7%, split 23.9%, L7 26.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.0%/30 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.60
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5
K% trend: headwind -9.0 ppts (recent 16.4% vs season 25.4%, proj adj -4.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Kent Over 4.5 (+144) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 38.7% / under 61.3%)
Jackson Kent: K/9 8.8, proj 5.0K over 4.0 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 56.4% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 22% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.2%, L7 24.6%, season 22.9%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 24.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Harrison Under 5.5 (+125) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	-
DK	5.5	-159	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-160	+124	-
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.0% / under 42.0%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Harrison: K/9 11.3, proj 4.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.7 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.9% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.281 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 16 PA | K% 6.2% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .308 | OPS .990
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 16 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 18.7%, L7 23.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 6.2%/16 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 (-122) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	4.5	-122	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.9% / under 48.1%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 9.3, proj 5.0K over 5.5 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Split-Finger (28% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 75 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .265 | OPS .745
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.3%, split 18.3%, L7 22.9%, season 21.5%, BVP 20.0%/75 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 28.8% vs season 23.4%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eric Lauer Under 3.5 (-111) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -111

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 9.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Eric Lauer: K/9 5.9, proj 3.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 12.6% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (21% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .314 | OPS .772
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.4%, L7 20.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Klassen Under 4.5 (-143) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Klassen: K/9 8.6, proj 4.1K over 4.0 IP (season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/4 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.2% | put-away% 13.1% | xwOBA 0.384 | top pitch: Slider (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.1%, L7 18.6%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/4 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 (-160) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-160	+125	SelectedRaw BestVerify
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.1% / under 41.9%); own-line consensus 1/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kevin Gausman: K/9 8.5, proj 5.9K over 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.305 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .496
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 43 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.5%, split 24.3%, L7 23.9%, season 24.0%, active roster 26.1%/6 hitters, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Elite -- Supports Bet; Chicago White Sox 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 26.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 26.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.52
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (+119) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-154	+118	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-150	+115	-
DK	5.5	-151	+119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	-
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.8% / under 43.2%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 7.8, proj 5.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 17.0% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .309 | OPS .997
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.3%, L7 25.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.08
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-156) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+122	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+126	-162	-
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 5.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.0, proj 3.3K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 107 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 15.9% | AVG .225 | OPS .670
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 107 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.1%, L7 20.9%, season 20.5%, BVP 14.0%/107 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.39
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Over 4.5 (+112) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	Selected
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 8.0, proj 4.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .974
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 21.9%, L7 21.3%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.0%/7 hitters, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.8%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.81
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-137) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+107	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 1.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.6, proj 5.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 21.8% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 35.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .262 | OPS .843
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 23.0%, L7 27.0%, season 25.4%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 27.3% vs season 21.1%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kevin Gausman Under 17.5 (+110) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-145	+109	-
DK	17.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.263999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .496
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.3%, L7 23.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 10.6%, L7 9.5%, season 9.0%, BVP 4.7%/43 PA (adj 1.03x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 16.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.08 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 (-103) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-103	-130	-
DK	17.5	-103	-129	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.567 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Braxton Ashcraft: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.1%, L7 20.4%, season 22.5% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.8%, L7 8.7%, season 9.4% (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (-126) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	17.5	-105	-127	-
DK	17.5	-105	-126	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.618000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .309 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.3%, L7 25.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 11.2%, L7 8.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 13.9%/65 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.20 | Season Avg 17.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nick Martinez Over 17.5 (-183) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -183

Selected market: Over 60.5% / Under 39.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	17.5	-175	+128	-
DK	17.5	-183	+137	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+128	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 18.273999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.54 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.5% / under 39.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 93 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .939
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 18.8%, L7 17.3%, season 19.6%, BVP 9.7%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.6%, L7 8.0%, season 7.4%, BVP 8.6%/93 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.5%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-148) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	17.5	-143	+107	-
DK	17.5	-148	+112	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-144	+106	-
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.824 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Foster Griffin: 13 PA | K% 38.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .154 | OPS .308
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.4%, L7 19.7%, season 20.8% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 5.9%, L7 7.7%, season 7.0% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.10 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Under 17.5 (+135) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +135

Selected market: Over 60.8% / Under 39.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.455 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.3 IP (recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 60.8% / under 39.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 74)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.3 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 74
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 65 PA | K% 33.9% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .220 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 33.9%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.5%, split 9.7%, L7 9.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 9.2%/65 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/20 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.80 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eric Lauer Under 6.5 (-115) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 29.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .314 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.4%, L7 20.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/19 (84%) | Season 16/19 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 8/10 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-135) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 18.5%, season 21.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (-105) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.48, BB% 7.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .974
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 (-152) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+114	-152	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 11.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.7% / under 56.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 (-130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 42 PA | K% 23.8% | BB% 11.9% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.171
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.4%, season 21.6%, BVP 23.8%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Over 5.5 (-130) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 3.6%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 93 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .333 | OPS .939
Opponent K profile: composite 17.5%, split 18.8%, L7 17.3%, season 19.6%, BVP 9.7%/93 PA (adj 0.87x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jack Perkins Under 5.5 (-145) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.24 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.60, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 26.4%, season 21.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 25/29 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +2.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Hudson Over 0.5 (+155) diff 120.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.1 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 120.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.17 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 2.31)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 1.2 IP/GS; recent 1.0 IP/5 start(s))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 36.2% / under 63.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, L7 23.9%, season 24.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 10/54 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eric Lauer Under 3.5 (-150) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 3.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.27 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 5.38, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 53 PA | K% 18.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .314 | OPS .772
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 24.4%, L7 20.0%, season 22.5%, BVP 18.9%/53 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/19 (84%) | Season 16/19 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Under 2.5 (-165) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.50 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 2.87)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 52 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .319 | OPS .734
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 15.6%, L7 15.5%, season 18.8%, BVP 21.1%/52 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-140) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.04 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 6.10)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 17 PA | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .974
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.9%, L7 21.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 29.4%/17 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Abbott Over 2.5 (-121) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.81 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.89, ERA 4.18)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Abbott: 93 PA | K% 18.3% | BB% 11.8% | AVG .200 | OPS .601
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 16.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 18.3%/93 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Carson Whisenhunt Over 2.5 (-107) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.53 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.69, ERA 5.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 2.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 17.1%, L7 15.8%, season 21.8% (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.17 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Keider Montero Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.95 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Keider Montero: 40 PA | K% 27.5% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .184 | OPS .488
Opponent K profile: composite 23.6%, split 22.3%, L7 23.3%, season 24.2%, BVP 27.5%/40 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/26 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-133) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.34 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.82, ERA 3.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 100 PA | K% 31.0% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .170 | OPS .561
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 21.2%, L7 23.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 31.0%/100 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jack Perkins Over 2.5 (-131) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.48 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 7.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 7 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .143 | OPS .286
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 23.1%, L7 26.4%, season 21.2% (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/29 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.82 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-140) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.92 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 2.88, ERA 4.02)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 65 PA | K% 33.9% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .220 | OPS .733
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 18.5%, L7 22.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 33.9%/65 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.02 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.6% / under 51.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 65 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .309 | OPS .997
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 20.3%, L7 25.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 20.0%/65 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zach Thornton Under 2.5 (-137) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.24 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, L7 18.5%, season 21.7% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 (-174) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.11 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 4.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.5% / under 59.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Kevin Gausman: 43 PA | K% 25.6% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .496
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 24.3%, L7 23.9%, season 24.0%, BVP 25.6%/43 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Kent Over 2.5 (+105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.55 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 4.42)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 21.2%, L7 24.6%, season 22.9% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 over 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Klassen Under 2.5 (-114) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.28 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.48, ERA 4.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.5 IP/4 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.1%, L7 18.6%, season 21.3% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/4 (75%) | L10 3/4 (75%) | L20 3/4 (75%) | Season 3/4 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.25 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/4 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-170) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.40 over 4.1 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 4.99)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.1 IP (HIGH; season 3.9 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.1% / under 58.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 87 PA | K% 32.2% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .167 | OPS .535
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 24.7%, L7 22.7%, season 25.2%, BVP 32.2%/87 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 5/10 (50%) | Season 5/10 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 31 play(s) (C 31)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-207) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Zack Gelof Under 1.5 (-258) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-261) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Maikel Garcia Under 1.5 (-245) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -245 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+181	-245	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-229) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-282) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -282

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+206	-282	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.81 (AVG 0.230)
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.263 (81 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 3/35 (9%) | L5 0/19 (0%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/118 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 55/60 under 1.5 (92%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 98/118 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Sogard Under 1.5 (-247) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -247 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+182	-247	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-250) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Max Muncy Under 1.5 (-239) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+177	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.83 (AVG 0.252)
Base projection 0.83 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301 (77 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/30 (27%) | L5 5/15 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.83
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 50/59 under 1.5 (85%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Hits: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 93/116 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Mookie Betts Under 1.5 (-196) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Tommy Edman Under 1.5 (-207) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Teoscar Hernandez Under 1.5 (-229) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Cole Carrigg Under 1.5 (-240) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Elieser Hernández Under 1.5 (-240) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-256) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+189	-256	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/120 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/61 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 86/120 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Hunter Goodman Under 1.5 (-260) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.338 (135 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/53 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 85/111 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-250) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.247)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.320 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/41 (20%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 90/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/62 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 47/59 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 90/121 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-272) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+200	-272	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.276)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342 (61 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 19/39 (49%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 86/117 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-174) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.306 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 94/125 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/62 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 50/63 under 1.5 (79%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 94/125 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-250) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.288)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.183 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/36 (22%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 85/119 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-260) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+191	-260	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.292)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/41 (17%) | L5 3/21 (14%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/54 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 78/114 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-213) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+158	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/34 (26%) | L5 3/14 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/124 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/61 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 90/124 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-200) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.368 (146 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .664
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 2/19 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/52 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 78/110 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-240) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.276)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.374 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/102 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 32/46 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 70/102 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-257) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -256 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.250 (26 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/43 (40%) | L5 8/21 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 74/116 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 32/55 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 74/116 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-226) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+168	-226	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.408 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/107 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.20 | Away Batter Hits: 38/52 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 75/107 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-167) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.295)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.403 (67 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .382
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 36/60 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 77/116 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-259) diff 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+191	-259	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.20 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.283 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/46 (35%) | L5 8/22 (36%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 79/119 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-220) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.314)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/45 (20%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/118 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 42/62 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 73/118 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-163) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/38 (21%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/122 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 81/122 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-227) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+169	-227	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+180	-245	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.16 (AVG 0.321)
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.411 (61 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/36 (22%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/123 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/62 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter Hits: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 81/123 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 226 play(s) (C 226)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+100) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/123 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/62 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 64/123 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-115) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 66/126 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/63 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 33/63 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 66/126 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-475) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/123 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 94/123 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-330) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/117 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 92/117 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-375) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-350) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 79/117 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-245) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 79/117 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-265) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .821 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 95/120 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 95/120 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-140) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/120 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 64/120 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.67

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-320) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 3/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/124 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 90/124 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-310) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 92/125 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/65 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 92/125 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-500) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/121 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/62 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 84/121 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-425) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/91 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 37/46 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 63/91 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/120 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 89/120 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+130) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/45 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 40/92 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+215) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +215

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/92 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/45 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 40/92 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-230) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/118 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 80/118 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-330) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/118 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 80/118 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/107 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/107 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 90/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-240) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 90/116 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-330) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/116 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 79/116 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-255) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 78/117 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-425) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-215) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-255) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-500) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-320) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .976
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/122 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 87/122 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+175) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/124 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/63 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 22/61 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 48/124 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/125 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 92/125 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-280) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-265) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-180) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-195) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-230) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-340) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 79/119 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-255) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/124 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 78/124 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-230) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-550) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-310) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-170) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-500) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-230) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-280) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Maikel Garcia Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 89/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/124 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/63 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 37/61 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 80/124 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/121 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/60 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 93/121 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-180) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 19 PA | 2/18 | HR 0 | K% 31.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .272
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/106 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/52 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 77/106 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-195) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-265) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-165) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-320) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-255) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-280) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Vazquez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-215) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-330) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-185) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/123 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 90/123 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+120) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 49/120 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/61 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 49/120 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+130) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 45.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/125 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/62 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 24/63 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 49/125 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-255) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-525) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-170) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-550) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-130) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-195) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-375) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 84/118 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-270) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/119 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 43/64 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 87/119 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-180) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-210) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-215) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-270) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hays Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-280) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christopher Morel Under 0.5 (-265) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-280) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-330) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adael Amador Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-255) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-525) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-195) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (-115) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .382
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/116 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/56 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 52/116 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-280) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 32/55 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/113 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/121 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 79/121 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-200) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-350) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-550) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joshua Baez Under 0.5 (-340) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/126 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/63 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 78/126 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-245) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-230) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-200) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Callahan Under 0.5 (-500) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/125 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/65 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 81/125 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+130) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/115 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 18/59 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 46/115 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-500) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/122 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 91/122 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-265) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/122 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 91/122 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 3.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.8% | OPS 1.184
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/94 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 61/94 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-255) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.158
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/122 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/61 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 35/61 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 70/122 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-340) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-310) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-400) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-280) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brock Rodden Under 0.5 (-320) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-425) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-270) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-215) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-165) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 62/112 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-210) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.10x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 85/119 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-270) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/47 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-225) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/121 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/61 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 70/121 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-475) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-225) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 79/120 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-180) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-200) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-425) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-255) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-400) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-270) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-350) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+145) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/121 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/60 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 26/61 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 45/121 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-180) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 72/104 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (+125) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.227
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/125 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/65 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 26/60 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 45/125 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-280) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 78/115 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+135) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/91 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/47 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 15/44 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 33/91 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-300) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/107 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 80/107 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-240) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-215) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .462
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 84/121 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 84/121 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-150) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/62 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-185) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/124 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/61 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 79/124 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-375) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 82/125 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 82/125 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-245) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.7% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/120 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/61 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 88/120 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-135) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/125 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 80/125 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-185) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 62/106 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-180) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/106 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 62/106 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-195) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/102 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 65/102 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-240) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 79/117 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+220) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.29x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 17 PA | 8/14 | HR 2 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.861
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 47/114 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-185) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 73/113 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-110) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.76
Base projection 0.76 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/89 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.76
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 25/44 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.80 | Day Batter Walks: 50/89 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-475) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/125 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 85/125 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-215) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/125 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 85/125 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-270) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 71/99 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/50 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 71/99 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-255) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/123 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/61 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 38/62 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 77/123 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-215) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/121 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 81/121 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-500) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/122 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/60 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 35/62 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 68/122 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-240) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/122 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/60 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 35/62 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 68/122 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-255) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/61 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 31/54 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 63/115 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-165) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 6/15 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .904
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/121 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/60 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 68/121 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (+210) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +210

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 43/122 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/62 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 24/60 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 43/122 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (+115) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 43/122 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/62 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 24/60 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 43/122 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 (+165) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/119 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 17/59 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 39/119 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (+260) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +260

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 39/119 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 17/59 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 39/119 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 25.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (+130) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 39/112 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/53 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 23/59 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 39/112 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-215) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/127 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/64 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Walks: 39/63 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 70/127 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+130) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 55/124 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/62 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 27/62 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 55/124 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+120) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/97 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.68 | Away Batter Walks: 21/47 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 48/97 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+110) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/118 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/60 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 48/118 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-310) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 29/52 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-115) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/116 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 16/59 over 0.5 (27%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 44/116 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+120) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.73
Base projection 0.73 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/65 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 63/119 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (+175) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .497
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/61 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 24/60 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 43/121 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 81/124 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 40/62 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 81/124 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+145) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/119 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 20/65 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 42/119 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-255) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 31/62 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 73/119 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-105) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 25/61 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 58/122 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+145) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/122 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 26/62 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 48/122 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+145) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/126 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/63 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 25/63 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 48/126 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-215) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.7% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/121 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/61 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 64/121 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-170) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/118 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+100) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 15/53 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 43/108 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+145) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/123 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/63 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 23/60 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 53/123 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-280) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 0/15 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/122 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 88/122 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-215) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP BB% 11.1% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 21 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .449
BVP walk adjustment: 1.04x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/118 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 81/118 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+145) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.546
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 38/104 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/47 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 21/57 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 38/104 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 98 play(s) (C 98)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-129) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-129	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.41
Base projection 2.41 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.335, xSLG 0.456 (81 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/125 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 37/59 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.80 | Day Batter HRR: 71/125 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-131) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.46
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.526 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 0/15 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/122 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/65 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 39/57 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.81 | Day Batter HRR: 75/122 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-129) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.404 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/125 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 62/125 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-120) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 61/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (-112) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/106 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.33 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 61/106 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-143) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.40
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/126 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.40
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/63 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 73/126 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-126) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/108 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.36 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 65/108 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-112) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.462 (88 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 55/121 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-124) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.382 (57 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.227
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/125 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 61/125 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+104) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/89 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 41/89 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-121) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.212, xSLG 0.235 (68 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/118 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 55/118 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-113) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.316 (71 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/50 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 48/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (-123) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.359 (86 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-106) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/122 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 63/122 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-118) diff 41.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.288 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/104 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 56/104 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-131) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.417 (54 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/119 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 32/65 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 58/119 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-102) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.457 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 22 PA | 1/18 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 13.6% | OPS .283
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-149) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/92 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 44/92 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/92 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 44/92 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Noelvi Marte Over 1.5 (+121) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.406, xSLG 0.565 (44 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.52 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+108) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.271 (70 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .497
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 60/121 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 60/121 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-137) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/123 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 63/123 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-114) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.867 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/119 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 38/60 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 68/119 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+134) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.552 (13 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/119 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 64/119 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-124) diff 37.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.510 (46 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-147) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-147	+111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.313 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 58/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-146) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.477 (61 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/117 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +2.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 54/117 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-129) diff 35.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.393 (55 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/123 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 54/123 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-124) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+106) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.431 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/124 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 65/124 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-122) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/121 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 64/121 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-110) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/123 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 58/123 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-117) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.173, xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.59 | Day Batter HRR: 59/116 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-112) diff 29.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.222 (72 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/127 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/64 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 70/127 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-105) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.494 (20 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (-105) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 3.16 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.54
Base projection 2.54 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/62 over 2.5 (58%), avg 2.95 | Away Batter HRR: 21/61 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 57/123 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (+107) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.612 (53 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/122 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 51/122 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+117) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 58/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+127) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 58/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-124) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.275 (20 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.546
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-122) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/62 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (-103) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.372 (13 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/104 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 52/104 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (-101) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.320 (90 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 55/121 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 55/121 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-107) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/122 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 55/122 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+100) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.241 (36 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/91 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/47 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 41/91 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+115) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.280 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/116 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 53/116 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-136) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.334 (48 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 50/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (-102) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.374 (70 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-149) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-149	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293, xSLG 0.397 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/117 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 27/62 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 53/117 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.199, xSLG 0.283 (51 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+100) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.401 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 21 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .449
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 60/118 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Under 1.5 (-131) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.190, xSLG 0.239 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter HRR: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 2.5 (-149) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.28 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/55 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 34/52 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 66/107 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adael Amador Over 1.5 (-110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.313 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 48/116 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 48/116 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+114) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+122) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (-126) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-122) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-104) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach McKinstry Over 1.5 (+114) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 (-128) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.207, xSLG 0.243 (67 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/111 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 18/58 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 39/111 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-173) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.097, xSLG 0.134 (28 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/124 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 30/61 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 62/124 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-127) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-156) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 (-155) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-152) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (-149) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-142) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-129) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (-128) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-113) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+101) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+125	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-106) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+109) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-145) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+131) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-125) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (-111) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+111) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dane Myers Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+110) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+132) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Bericoto Over 1.5 (+134) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 255 play(s) (C 250 | D 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 467.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 467.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/123 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 51/62 over 0.5 (82%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter TB: 35/61 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 86/123 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.24

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 468% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cody Freeman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 308.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 308.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/122 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/62 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 45/60 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter TB: 87/122 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.76

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 309% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 293.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 293.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.462 (88 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 73/121 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 293% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-160) diff 275.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 275.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/89 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/45 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 28/44 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 58/89 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.92

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 275% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Pages Over 0.5 (-120) diff 273.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 273.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/125 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/62 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 46/63 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 88/125 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.79

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 273% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 268.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/60 over 0.5 (78%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 85/119 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.85

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-190) diff 268.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/60 over 0.5 (78%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 85/119 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.85

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 259.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 259.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.431 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/124 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 41/62 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 78/124 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.79

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 259% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 251.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.359 (86 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/118 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/62 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 81/118 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.90

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 252% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 249.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 249.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.565 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/118 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 78/118 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.77

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 250% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-160) diff 247.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 247.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.494 (20 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 247% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 241.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (70 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .497
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 76/121 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 39/60 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 76/121 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.61

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-140) diff 227.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 67/117 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-180) diff 227.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 227.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 67/117 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 228% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.612 (53 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/122 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/62 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 62/122 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.30

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-165) diff 223.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-140) diff 223.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 0.5 (-130) diff 223.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 223.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 0.5 (-190) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-120) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-180) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-165) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 (-180) diff 219.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.453 (136 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 45/61 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.70

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 0.5 (-200) diff 217.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.433 (29 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/59 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-150) diff 216.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-160) diff 216.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.312 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/120 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/61 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 40/59 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 80/120 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.552 (13 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 42/61 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 84/119 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.52

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-130) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-120) diff 214.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James McCann Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-170) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Franklin Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/92 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/45 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 27/47 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 56/92 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/57 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 70/116 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-130) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 0.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Vilade Over 0.5 (-149) diff 209.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 (-180) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-165) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-180) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-120) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (+105) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Torrens Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hays Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christopher Morel Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-130) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-160) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-110) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Everson Pereira Over 0.5 (-110) diff 204.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-130) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Bericoto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Knizner Over 0.5 (-130) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-180) diff 204.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-200) diff 203.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.260 (58 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 87/123 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/65 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 87/123 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.54

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-180) diff 196.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/122 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 68/122 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-180) diff 184.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (145 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .946
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 46/59 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 80/116 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-180) diff 182.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (90 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/60 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 73/121 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-180) diff 179.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/118 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/59 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 73/118 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 178.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.188 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/120 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/61 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 73/120 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 178.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 178% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-180) diff 171.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 171.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.405 (160 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/125 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 42/63 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 82/125 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-120) diff 171.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 171.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.405 (160 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/125 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 42/63 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 82/125 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-185) diff 170.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (20 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/121 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 79/121 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-180) diff 139.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.493 (154 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/119 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/65 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 75/119 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 127.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.401 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 21 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .449
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/118 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 73/118 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-180) diff 111.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter TB: 64/113 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 106.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.235 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+174) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/123 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 57/123 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.24

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-160) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.90 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.05
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/121 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/121 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 80.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+119) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.37x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.493 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 17 PA | 8/14 | HR 2 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.861
BVP production adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 49/114 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 49/114 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.293 (142 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter TB: 59/115 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 60.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+125) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/120 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 60/120 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+112) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.565 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/122 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 49/122 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+100) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/125 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 67/125 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+115) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.508 (131 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .976
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/122 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 52/122 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+126) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/124 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 58/124 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+109) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/126 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 61/126 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-158) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/122 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter TB: 54/122 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+129) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 (+123) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+120) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.454 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/120 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 52/120 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+112) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.526 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 0/15 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/122 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter TB: 57/122 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (81 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/125 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter TB: 61/125 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+112) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/125 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/65 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 49/125 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-115) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.482 (146 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .664
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-110) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.585 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/102 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 43/102 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-119) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter TB: 22/52 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+117) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.510 (46 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 44/115 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+117) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.496 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.158
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/122 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 53/122 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+103) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 30/65 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.87
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-134) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/125 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 25/63 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 53/125 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-190) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.255 (10 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/62 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 79/117 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+126) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/119 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 56/119 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-165) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.324 (129 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.144
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 85/115 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+100) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.249 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/119 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 51/119 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+133) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.530 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 45.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/125 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 54/125 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+130) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (62 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-101) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.477 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/117 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 48/117 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-190) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.498 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 43/62 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 85/119 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+123) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/122 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 49/122 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+123) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/122 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 49/122 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (-114) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (77 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/116 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 46/116 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-180) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.315 (12 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 69/116 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-179) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (48 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+108) diff 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.359 (86 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/118 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 53/118 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-200) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.207 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 6/15 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .904
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 80/121 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 80/121 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+140) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (71 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 37/99 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/49 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 37/99 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+130) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 22 PA | 1/18 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 13.6% | OPS .283
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 40/106 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.498 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/123 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 51/123 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/121 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 51/121 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+135) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.235 (68 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 49/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+133) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/119 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 45/119 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+110) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 57/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.303 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/124 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 27/63 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 51/124 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-190) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.372 (13 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 64/104 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-164) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.243 (67 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 77/111 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+113) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.393 (55 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/123 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/63 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 42/123 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-172) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -172 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.282 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 70/116 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+130) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (145 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/121 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 20/62 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 45/121 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+118) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-180) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.344 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/121 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 80/121 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-115) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 1.5 (+120) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Norby Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-121) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-107) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-110) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 1.5 (+130) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adael Amador Over 1.5 (+150) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+130) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.249 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 50/125 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 50/125 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-138) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/60 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 84/118 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.516 (143 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/107 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 44/107 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+134) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/118 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 42/118 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-165) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 41/61 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 78/116 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/126 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 53/126 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/123 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/63 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 46/123 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+132) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.227
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/125 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/65 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 44/125 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+129) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 43/104 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+133) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/125 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/62 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 42/125 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Under 1.5 (-165) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.412 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 3/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/124 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/64 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 82/124 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+167) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 1.5 (+186) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Callahan Over 1.5 (+171) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+154) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+156	-213	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 19/59 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 44/121 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+150) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.211 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 18 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.188
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 58/122 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+139) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 35/117 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 18/62 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter TB: 35/117 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-165) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/127 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/64 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 78/127 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 1.5 (-180) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (51 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/115 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 79/115 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-165) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.276 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/120 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 74/120 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Under 1.5 (-137) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/117 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 43/62 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 75/117 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (73 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/124 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 44/124 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.376 (137 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/124 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 46/124 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (122 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+149) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Maikel Garcia Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+127) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/92 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 16/47 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 34/92 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-201) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.867 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 63/119 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 36/91 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 36/91 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+142) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-201) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/123 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 39/61 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 79/123 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+146) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+150) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-167) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/124 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/62 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 40/62 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 81/124 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 46/97 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 46/97 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.476 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/118 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 44/118 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.374 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/97 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 35/97 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-153) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/120 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 36/59 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 76/120 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-156) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (20 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.546
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/104 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 71/104 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+141) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+142) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+150) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.423 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.198 (61 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/123 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter TB: 43/123 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Under 1.5 (-150) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 73/121 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-181) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.8% | OPS 1.184
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 59/94 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Under 1.5 (-147) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.338 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/61 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 66/115 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-180) diff 197.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.262 (36 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/121 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/62 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 73/121 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-140) diff 146.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 19 PA | 2/18 | HR 0 | K% 31.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .272
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 142.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.134 (28 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/124 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/63 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 70/124 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-150) diff 138.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 138.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/107 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 60/107 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 138.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 131.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/120 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/62 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 65/120 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-119) edge 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 8 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -119

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 5 books | 8.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 8 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8.5 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-115	-	Recommended
DK	8	-119	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-120	-	-
MyBookie	8	-119	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	+100	-	-
BetUS	8.5	+100	-	-
LowVig	8.5	+103	-	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.9 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Jackson Kent small sample (4 IP) — stats 5% actual / 95% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-110) edge 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -110

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-108	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-108	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-107	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-109	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-110	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Ricky Tiedemann (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 96 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ F5 ML — 5 play(s) (C 5)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+135) edge 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +135 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.98
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.38
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+120) edge 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (F5) | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +126 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +120

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +126 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Cal Quantrill xFIP 4.84
Jackson Kent xFIP 4.18
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Los Angeles Angels (+130) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (F5) | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +142 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +142 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.84
George Klassen xFIP 4.48
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Miami Marlins (+205) edge 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +205 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +205

Own-line consensus: 1 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +205 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Guerrero (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 2.88
Cade Gibson xFIP 4.32
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 99)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: Cade Gibson (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (1 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Toronto Blue Jays (+110) edge 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +116 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +110

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +116 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Ricky Tiedemann (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.54
José Soriano xFIP 3.72
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 98 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

▸ Batter HR — 253 play(s) (C 253)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 98.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0087
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.293 (142 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 114/115 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 114/115 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 96.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0174
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.334 (48 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/115 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 113/115 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hays Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.282 (26 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 116/116 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 61/61 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 116/116 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Maikel Garcia Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 12.2% / Under 87.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 12.2% / Under 87.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James McCann Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Lawlar Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 11.4% / Under 88.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0339
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.401 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 21 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 9.5% | BB% 9.5% | OPS .449
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 21 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 114/118 (97%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.03
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/61 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 114/118 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adael Amador Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 105 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 92.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0476
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (19 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 14 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .445
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 120/126 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 62/63 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 120/126 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0424
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/118 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 113/118 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0504
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 6 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.867 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 113/119 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 113/119 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0579
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.349 (19 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 114/121 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 114/121 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0598
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.255 (10 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/117 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 110/117 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.493 (154 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/119 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 112/119 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0569
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 116/123 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 116/123 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0708
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.235 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0738
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.260 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.211 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 18 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.188
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 113/122 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 113/122 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0667
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.308 (45 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 9 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/120 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/62 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 113/120 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0744
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.207 (23 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 6/15 | HR 0 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .904
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/121 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 112/121 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0732
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.260 (58 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 114/123 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/65 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 114/123 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0750
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.276 (43 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.111
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/120 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 111/120 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.372 (13 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/104 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 96/104 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0673
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/114 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 106/114 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-800) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.243 (67 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 83.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.324 (129 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.144
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/115 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 107/115 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0862
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.477 (145 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .946
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/116 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 108/116 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0928
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/97 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 88/97 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.315 (12 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (90 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/121 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 111/121 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0847
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.476 (23 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1074
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.361 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/121 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 108/121 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 80.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0932
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/118 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/60 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 107/118 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0924
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.498 (52 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/119 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 108/119 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0960
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.467 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 11 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .818
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 115/125 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 115/125 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1008
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.552 (13 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/119 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 108/119 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1181
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.222 (72 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 113/127 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 113/127 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1048
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.303 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 112/124 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 112/124 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.405 (160 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 111/125 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 111/125 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.405 (160 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 111/125 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 111/125 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1074
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.415 (145 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/121 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 108/121 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1129
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/124 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/62 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 110/124 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1322
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (20 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 23 PA | 3/19 | HR 0 | K% 17.4% | BB% 17.4% | OPS .462
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/121 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 107/121 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.312 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.338 (33 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1092
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.442 (62 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/119 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 107/119 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/107 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/107 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.284 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/118 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/118 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1087
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (70 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/92 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 83/92 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1210
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.376 (137 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/124 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 112/124 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1120
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.382 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 12 PA | 5/11 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.227
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/125 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 112/125 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1210
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.412 (32 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 3/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 111/124 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 111/124 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.482 (146 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 11 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .664
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/52 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1321
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.411 (23 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 19 PA | 2/18 | HR 0 | K% 31.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .272
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1301
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 110/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1240
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.487 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/121 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 107/121 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1277
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 24 PA | 7/19 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.8% | OPS 1.184
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 82/94 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 82/94 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.516 (143 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/107 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/107 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.188 (17 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/120 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 103/120 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.313 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/120 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 106/120 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1453
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.453 (136 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.134 (28 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/124 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/63 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 105/124 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-650) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.397 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 53/62 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 101/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1405
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/121 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 105/121 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cody Freeman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1230
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1230
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 19 PA | 6/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 21.1% | OPS 1.222
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.433 (29 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.316 (71 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1356
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.235 (68 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/118 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/118 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 70.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1868
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (11 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/91 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 76/91 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1513
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1513
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1513
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.332 (44 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 16 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .661
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1475
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.496 (38 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 17 PA | 7/16 | HR 1 | K% 17.6% | BB% 5.9% | OPS 1.158
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/122 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 105/122 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.283 (51 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 10 PA | 5/9 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.600
BVP production adjustment: 1.10x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1695
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.261 (26 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/118 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 100/118 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-650) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.275 (20 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 11 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 27.3% | OPS 1.546
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.281 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.466 (122 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 67, HR vulnerability 33 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1613
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (73 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/124 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 53/62 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 105/124 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.383 (75 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 105/120 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 105/120 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1638
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 98/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1600
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.249 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/65 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.265 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1463
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.364 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.393 (55 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Carson Whisenhunt contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Carson Whisenhunt: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/123 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 107/123 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1639
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/122 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/122 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1311
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.612 (53 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1545
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.498 (31 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/123 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 105/123 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1875
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.262 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.423 (15 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/112 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 91/112 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.249 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/119 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 101/119 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1680
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.456 (81 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 15 PA | 3/15 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .467
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1680
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1680
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/125 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 106/125 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1653
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.271 (70 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 15 PA | 2/13 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .497
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 102/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1780
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.565 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/118 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/118 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1984
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.229 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/126 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 102/126 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.262 (36 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Nick Martinez: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/121 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 98/121 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-600) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1870
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.198 (61 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/123 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 102/123 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 61.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.433 (47 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/119 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/119 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1880
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.318 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.477 (61 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/117 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/117 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2241
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.246 (38 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Braxton Ashcraft contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Braxton Ashcraft: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1927
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.494 (20 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/109 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/109 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-500) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1967
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.526 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Abbott contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Andrew Abbott: 18 PA | 0/15 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 98/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2016
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.431 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Foster Griffin: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/124 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/124 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2062
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.374 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 8 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .125
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 78/97 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 78/97 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-800) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2037
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1887
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.367 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.457 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 22 PA | 1/18 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 13.6% | OPS .283
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/106 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 87/106 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2203
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.359 (86 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2203
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.359 (86 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Keider Montero contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Keider Montero: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1887
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/106 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 87/106 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Oneil Cruz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1887
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.471 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 2 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/106 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 87/106 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.510 (46 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/115 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 95/115 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.585 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 38/46 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2240
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.530 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carlos Rodón contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Carlos Rodón: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 45.5% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/125 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 98/125 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2080
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.404 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 6 PA | 3/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/125 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/65 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 101/125 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1803
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.565 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 103/122 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/122 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/117 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 92/117 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-750) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.471 (20 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/117 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 92/117 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2295
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 97/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 55.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2295
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 97/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 97/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1901
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.462 (88 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/121 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/121 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2155
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.372 (77 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 16 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/116 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 96/116 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2381
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/126 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/63 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 100/126 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-700) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2377
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.508 (131 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .976
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/122 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 95/122 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 47.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles | Start: 6:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2773
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 8 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/119 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 50/65 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 87/119 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-285) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2417
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.353 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.591 (67 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 31, HR vulnerability 69 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 11 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .382
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-600) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2823
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.417 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/124 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/63 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 93/124 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2880
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.326 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Zebby Matthews: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 92/125 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 92/125 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2193
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.37x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.493 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 17 PA | 8/14 | HR 2 | K% 11.8% | BB% 11.8% | OPS 1.861
BVP production adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/114 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 90/114 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-375) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3083
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.454 (48 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Gibson contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Cade Gibson: 7 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/120 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/60 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/120 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 8:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3146
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.305 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (9 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Kevin Gausman contact suppression 55, HR vulnerability 45 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/89 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 31/44 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 63/89 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies | Start: 8:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3063
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.506 (135 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2927
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/123 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 92/123 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2927
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.384 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.10x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.632 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 16, HR vulnerability 84 (adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/123 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 92/123 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.370/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-119	51.9%	73.7%	+21.7%	$+35.56	9	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-110	50.0%	67.8%	+17.8%	$+29.35	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Over 8.0 — Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (Total) +21.7%

[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 9.9 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP) | opp wRC+ 122 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Jackson Kent small sample (4 IP) — stats 5% actual / 95% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.5 — Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +17.8%

[INJ] Ricky Tiedemann (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 96 blended 35% (team 94)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 64%, bullpen 36%, offense factor 1.00
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+135	40.1%	52.7%	+12.6%	$+23.84	4	Bet on DK
C	Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (F5)	8:06 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	DK	+120	42.9%	53.5%	+10.7%	$+17.69	4	Bet on DK
C	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (F5)	8:11 PM	F5 ML	Los Angeles Angels	DK	+130	41.1%	50.6%	+9.5%	$+16.35	5	Bet on DK
C	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Miami Marlins	FanDuel	+205	31.1%	40.6%	+9.5%	$+23.84	1	Bet on DK
C	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Toronto Blue Jays	DK	+110	44.9%	54.3%	+9.3%	$+13.95	5	Bet on DK
B	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5)	8:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 6.5	FanDuel	-118	50.8%	59.5%	+8.6%	$+9.87	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (6 play(s))

C Colorado Rockies — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 ML) +12.6%

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.98
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.38
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (F5) (F5 ML) +10.7%

[IL] Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Globe Life Field (HITTER)
Cal Quantrill xFIP 4.84
Jackson Kent xFIP 4.18
Texas Rangers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 98)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cal Quantrill (RHP)
Away SP: Jackson Kent (LHP)

C Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (F5) (F5 ML) +9.5%

[INJ] Fabian Soto (Los Angeles Angels) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Brett Kerry (Los Angeles Angels) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Unknown Venue (NEUTRAL)
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.84
George Klassen xFIP 4.48
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
Los Angeles Angels pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 95)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)
Away SP: George Klassen (RHP)

C Miami Marlins — Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (F5) (F5 ML) +9.5%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Carlos Guerrero (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citizens Bank Park (HITTER)
Zack Wheeler xFIP 2.88
Cade Gibson xFIP 4.32
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 99)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Away SP: Cade Gibson (LHP)

C Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (F5) (F5 ML) +9.3%

[INJ] Ricky Tiedemann (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
Tropicana Field (PITCHER)
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.54
José Soriano xFIP 3.72
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 103)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 98 blended 50% (team 94)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)
Away SP: José Soriano (RHP)

B Under 6.5 — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (F5) (F5 Total) +8.6%

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 5.9 runs vs line 6.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Coors Field (EXTREME HITTER)
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.98
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.38
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 103)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 120 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.9
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.12, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Away SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

6:36 PM · decision fi-d90b3c96ae003707

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-4.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-3.0%

Effective Edge

-5.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Carlos Rodón · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carlos Rodón / Shane Baz announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarlos Rodón / Shane Baz announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

6:41 PM · decision fi-e169a2acabcd118c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-3.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -103

Raw Edge

-1.3%

Effective Edge

-2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andrew Abbott · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Leahy / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Leahy / Andrew Abbott announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians

6:41 PM · decision fi-4e3ce164ead01f48

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.8%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -125

Raw Edge

-3.8%

Effective Edge

-5.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.2%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +100

Raw Edge

-1.8%

Effective Edge

-3.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Carson Whisenhunt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Foster Griffin · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.518
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carson Whisenhunt / Foster Griffin announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.518

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarson Whisenhunt / Foster Griffin announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp
BetOnline	—	—	—	REJECTED OUTLIER: fair_nrfi=0.6539 deviates 0.1250 from median 0.5289 (threshold 0.0800)

Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:41 PM · decision fi-f41a02c521c81101

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.9%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -128

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.1%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +100

Raw Edge

-1.9%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Keider Montero · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Braxton Ashcraft · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Keider Montero / Braxton Ashcraft announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKeider Montero / Braxton Ashcraft announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-130	-102	52.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

6:41 PM · decision fi-9726ebfef383a62f

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -118

Raw Edge

-3.4%

Effective Edge

-5.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-2.0%

Effective Edge

-4.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cade Gibson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zack Wheeler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cade Gibson / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCade Gibson / Zack Wheeler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

6:41 PM · decision fi-08cd40f13e56aaf8

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.7%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -122

Raw Edge

-3.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +110

Raw Edge

+0.7%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
José Soriano / Nick Martinez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJosé Soriano / Nick Martinez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox

7:11 PM · decision fi-7b4155f99f94f9d1

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-3.4%

Effective Edge

-4.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.3%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Merrill Kelly / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMerrill Kelly / Ranger Suarez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-110	51.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets

7:11 PM · decision fi-6de855d1f7880892

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-4.5%

Effective Edge

-6.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Robbie Ray · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Robbie Ray / Zac Thornton announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRobbie Ray / Zac Thornton announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-112	-120	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins

7:40 PM · decision fi-146a780947ad1a11

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-4.4%

Effective Edge

-5.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tyler Mahle / Zebby Matthews announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTyler Mahle / Zebby Matthews announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Athletics @ Kansas City Royals

7:41 PM · decision fi-7d043610300ae85e

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:49:44.537057Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED

Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers

7:41 PM · decision fi-ea90670b1b8bce92

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -125

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-5.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +115

Raw Edge

+2.1%

Effective Edge

+0.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Harrison · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bryce Miller / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBryce Miller / Kyle Harrison announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+102	53.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs

8:06 PM · decision fi-92003f2010194803

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: Kevin Gausman · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:49:44.537057Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers

8:06 PM · decision fi-1348d0d34e251681

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-1.1%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -113

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-5.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jackson Kent · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cal Quantrill · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jackson Kent / Cal Quantrill announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJackson Kent / Cal Quantrill announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-118	-113	50.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros

8:11 PM · decision fi-b42d5462bb08d22a

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +108

Raw Edge

+1.3%

Effective Edge

-1.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -128

Raw Edge

-5.5%

Effective Edge

-8.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: George Klassen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cristian Javier · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.494
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
George Klassen / Cristian Javier announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.494

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGeorge Klassen / Cristian Javier announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+100	-132	46.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

8:41 PM · decision fi-55e57b3ae8c9cb79

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

44.8%

Fair Odds

+123

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers +130

Raw Edge

+1.3%

Effective Edge

+0.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

55.2%

Fair Odds

-123

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -160

Raw Edge

-6.3%

Effective Edge

-7.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Eric Lauer · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-17 · updated 2026-08-18T07:41:14.441560Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.448
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Eric Lauer / Ryan Feltner announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.448

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSEric Lauer / Ryan Feltner announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+130	-177	40.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+130	-166	41.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+130	-160	41.4%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 253 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=253
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+220	-	40.9%	28.9%	+11.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+200	-	39.2%	31.1%	+8.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.7%	23.1%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	38.5%	19.9%	+18.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	38.5%	18.4%	+20.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	37.6%	23.1%	+14.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	George Klassen (R)	theScore Bet	+220	-	37.4%	28.9%	+8.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	-	Carlos Rodón (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	36.4%	21.7%	+14.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	35.6%	23.1%	+12.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	35.4%	20.8%	+14.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	34.7%	23.1%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Christian Walker	Houston Astros	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	George Klassen (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	34.4%	19.1%	+15.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	33.9%	19.1%	+14.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	Cristian Javier (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.1%	23.1%	+10.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.9%	18.4%	+14.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Andrew Abbott (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.9%	19.9%	+13.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.6%	19.9%	+12.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	-	Kevin Gausman (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	32.3%	19.1%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	-	Cade Gibson (L)	theScore Bet	+240	-	31.0%	27.1%	+3.9%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	30.8%	18.4%	+12.4%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	100	91.0%	-1012	Hunter Goodman, Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages	Coors Field HR factor 1.20 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	100	88.3%	-753	Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Mike Trout, Zach Neto	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	100	87.2%	-681	Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Kody Clemens, Michael Harris II	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	100	87.0%	-671	CJ Abrams, Jake Burger, Elias Diaz, Daylen Lile	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	100	86.7%	-649	Jo Adell, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	100	86.4%	-636	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.6%	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	100	85.8%	-603	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena	American Family Field HR factor 1.08	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	100	85.5%	-589	Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05	-
Watchlist	Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	100	84.7%	-553	Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	84.7%	-551	Eddy Alvarez, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	100	84.5%	-544	Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Ildemaro Vargas, Corbin Carroll	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	100	84.4%	-541	Junior Caminero, Kazuma Okamoto, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	100	83.3%	-500	Pete Alonso, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Gunnar Henderson	Camden Yards HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	100	82.9%	-484	Kyle Schwarber, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Bryce Harper	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (+220) HR chance 40.9% | edge +11.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.306, OPS 0.861, ISO 0.290, TB/G 2.02
Statcast: barrel 16.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.467
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/111 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0522, xFIP 5.38, K% 15.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.72, whiff 18.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.778, K% 44.4% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.055, OPS 0.864, ISO 0.235 (146 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (+200) HR chance 39.2% | edge +8.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.242, OPS 0.948, ISO 0.261, TB/G 2.08
Statcast: barrel 16.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.5/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.568
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 27/116 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0481, xFIP 4.98, K% 16.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.39, whiff 22.8%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.382, K% 9.1% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.048, OPS 0.957, ISO 0.248 (353 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Max Muncy — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies (+300) HR chance 38.7% | edge +15.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.215, OPS 0.846, ISO 0.249, TB/G 1.65
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/110.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.471
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 20/116 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0481, xFIP 4.98, K% 16.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.353, xERA 5.39, whiff 22.8%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.700, K% 12.5% (16 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.057, OPS 0.852, ISO 0.248 (335 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (+360) HR chance 38.5% | edge +18.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.238, OPS 0.883, ISO 0.251, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 10.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.4/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.447
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 27/122 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0298, xFIP 4.93, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.322, xERA 4.38, whiff 19.2%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.976, K% 13.3% (15 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.064, OPS 0.954, ISO 0.279 (360 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Willson Contreras — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox (+400) HR chance 38.5% | edge +20.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.219, OPS 0.924, ISO 0.252, TB/G 1.83
Statcast: barrel 14.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/114.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.503
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 24/114 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 4.98, K% 15.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.397, xERA 7.15, whiff 20.5%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.861, K% 11.8% (17 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.904, ISO 0.242 (347 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds (+300) HR chance 37.6% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.197, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.211, TB/G 1.94
Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.491
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 24/122 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0297, xFIP 4.89, K% 17.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.72, whiff 22.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.167, K% 33.3% (18 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.930, ISO 0.254 (139 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Yordan Alvarez — Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (+220) HR chance 37.4% | edge +8.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.293, OPS 1.054, ISO 0.298, TB/G 2.24
Statcast: barrel 17.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.5/118.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.681
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 31/123 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0328, xFIP 5.79, K% 18.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.384, xERA 6.59, whiff 30.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 1.136, ISO 0.324 (399 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.632, xwOBA 0.411 (61 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles (+320) HR chance 36.4% | edge +14.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.224, OPS 0.857, ISO 0.229, TB/G 1.86
Statcast: barrel 13.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.2/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.542
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 27/125 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.773, K% 45.5% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.769, ISO 0.196 (159 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.530, xwOBA 0.344 (47 PA)
Park HR factor 1.00

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Pitcher season stats unavailable

⚠ BvP strikeout risk

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+750	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+750	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Steven Kwan	San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	+1100	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	+750	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Jakob Marsee	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	+600	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| BvP strikeout risk
Geraldo Perdomo	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	+900	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	+450	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	+550	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	+550	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Nico Hoerner	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	+900	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	6:41 PM	Zack Wheeler	Cade Gibson	1.10	17.1%	47.4%	-	+0.0%
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	6:36 PM	Shane Baz	Carlos Rodón	1.00	16.7%	46.5%	-	+0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:41 PM	Nick Martinez	José Soriano	0.94	15.6%	44.6%	-	+0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	7:11 PM	Ranger Suarez	Merrill Kelly	0.95	15.5%	44.4%	-	+0.0%
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Braxton Ashcraft	Keider Montero	0.96	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Zac Thornton	Robbie Ray	0.93	15.4%	44.1%	-	+0.0%
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	7:41 PM	None	Jack Perkins	0.93	15.3%	44.1%	-	+0.0%
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	8:06 PM	Kevin Gausman	None	1.05	14.5%	42.5%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers	7:41 PM	Kyle Harrison	Bryce Miller	1.08	14.2%	42.0%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Andrew Abbott	Kyle Leahy	1.15	13.6%	40.7%	-	+0.0%
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	6:41 PM	Foster Griffin	Carson Whisenhunt	0.95	13.4%	40.2%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers	8:06 PM	Cal Quantrill	Jackson Kent	1.10	13.0%	39.4%	-	+0.0%
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	Zebby Matthews	Tyler Mahle	0.95	12.8%	39.1%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Cristian Javier	George Klassen	1.00	11.7%	36.9%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies	8:41 PM	Ryan Feltner	Eric Lauer	1.20	9.0%	30.7%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	70.6	68.2	77.5	6	Split-Finger (46% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 30.9%, put-away 22.6%, xwOBA 0.260, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers	64.4	53.7	76.5	7	Split-Finger (36% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.262, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners	63.2	62.1	67.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (30% whiff, 57% usage)	Savant whiff 28.9%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.281, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers	61.1	60.0	65.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles	58.8	62.9	59.5	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 21.0%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox	55.2	56.7	55.0	3	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.305, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks	54.7	51.7	60.5	6	Curveball (41% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Kansas City Royals	54.5	58.7	48.5	6	Changeup (42% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers	53.9	88.7	33.5	3	Changeup (43% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 56.4%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	53.4	66.0	44.0	5	Curveball (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins	51.9	50.4	54.5	5	Split-Finger (28% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Gibson	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	49.2	40.0	54.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 21.3%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	49.2	37.4	62.5	5	Slider (29% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 18.5%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants	49.1	49.4	50.0	7	Changeup (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees	47.0	44.5	49.5	5	Curveball (30% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.0%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	46.6	50.8	43.5	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	43.1	43.5	41.0	5	Changeup (37% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves	43.1	43.3	41.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians	41.8	57.3	25.5	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.364, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals	41.5	36.8	46.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	39.9	46.0	35.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.8%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	39.1	34.2	41.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (21% whiff, 42% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 12.6%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	39.0	44.0	31.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.353, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	38.7	33.1	45.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 14.4%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	37.8	38.1	39.0	7	Sweeper (26% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	36.9	57.3	15.5	5	Slider (44% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 30.2%, put-away 13.1%, xwOBA 0.384, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	36.7	46.1	24.0	7	Changeup (26% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.7%, put-away 12.9%, xwOBA 0.367, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox	25.6	39.4	9.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox	R	16.2%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Kansas City Royals	R	23.1%	4.7	4.6	4.6	79	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins	R	25.3%	5.6	5.3	5.4	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees	R	20.2%	5.4	5.8	5.7	91	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	23.6%	3.7	5.1	4.8	62	short	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Kevin Gausman	Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox	R	21.8%	5.1	5.5	5.5	86	short	full	55.00	45.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Andrew Abbott	Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	16.7%	5.5	5.3	5.4	92	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants	L	19.0%	5.5	5.8	5.7	92	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	14.6%	4.6	4.8	4.8	77	short	full	31.00	69.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Keider Montero	Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	15.7%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.1%	4.0	3.9	4.5	67	short	full	24.00	76.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros	R	20.6%	3.5	3.7	4.6	59	short	full	15.50	84.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.5 IP/start
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies	L	15.5%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cade Gibson	Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	19.6%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners	L	29.3%	4.1	4.9	4.8	69	short	full	67.00	33.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves	R	20.1%	4.8	5.7	5.5	80	short	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs San Diego Padres	L	16.8%	5.5	5.7	5.7	92	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Carlos Rodón	New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles	L	26.1%	5.4	5.2	5.2	91	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	R	29.9%	4.4	5.8	5.5	74	short	full	77.50	22.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Braxton Ashcraft	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers	R	25.9%	5.6	5.9	6.0	94	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	L	20.5%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Carson Whisenhunt	San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians	L	19.9%	4.3	4.7	4.9	72	short	full	25.50	74.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.2%	5.3	5.7	5.6	89	normal	full	76.50	23.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	23.3%	5.6	5.1	5.2	94	normal	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	13.7%	6.4	6.0	6.1	107	deep	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals	R	18.9%	4.0	4.7	4.7	67	short	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.0%	5.4	5.6	5.5	91	normal	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers	L	22.9%	-	4.0	5.6	94	short	full	33.50	66.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

6/6 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Kevin Gausman	Kevin Gausman Under	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	17.5	16.3	-1.2	7.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Braxton Ashcraft	Braxton Ashcraft Over	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	18.6	1.1	6.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	17.5	16.6	-0.9	5.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nick Martinez	Nick Martinez Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Under	Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies	17.5	17.5	-0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.5	74	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

99 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.49	1.14	0.61	0.74	2.45 / Over	0.35	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.44	1.12	0.57	0.76	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=125,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.40	1.07	0.71	0.63	2.40 / Over	0.40	season_games=126,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.39	1.04	0.66	0.69	2.38 / Over	0.40	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Oneil Cruz	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.35	1.35	0.50	0.50	2.41 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Sal Stewart	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.29	1.00	0.54	0.75	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=125,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.25	1.05	0.65	0.55	2.41 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.25	0.93	0.64	0.67	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Munetaka Murakami	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.22	0.83	0.74	0.65	2.16 / Over	0.35	season_games=89,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.21	0.99	0.59	0.63	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Wilyer Abreu	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.18	1.03	0.57	0.57	2.59 / Over	0.35	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ivan Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.18	1.22	0.48	0.48	2.18 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.18	0.89	0.69	0.60	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.17	0.97	0.53	0.67	1.95 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jac Caglianone	Athletics @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.12	0.99	0.55	0.58	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kevin McGonigle	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.09	1.06	0.64	0.39	1.98 / Over	0.35	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.08	1.14	0.52	0.42	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alex Bregman	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.07	1.01	0.56	0.50	2.06 / Over	0.40	season_games=123,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Noelvi Marte	St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.07	1.16	0.46	0.46	2.07 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pedro Ramirez	Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.07	1.16	0.46	0.46	2.07 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Christian Walker	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.06	0.90	0.53	0.63	2.31 / Over	0.35	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Garcia Jr.	New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles	Over 1.5	2.06	1.15	0.45	0.45	2.06 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.06	0.91	0.69	0.46	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryan Reynolds	Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.06	0.95	0.63	0.48	1.94 / Over	0.35	season_games=127,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.05	0.90	0.67	0.48	2.07 / Over	0.35	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes