MLB Bets 2026-08-15

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	711W–394L–0P	64%	-89.40 u	Last 14 days • 1105 settled
Grade A	19W–24L–0P	44%	-10.66 u
Grade B	690W–362L–0P	66%	-73.30 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3555W–2237L–8P	61%	-246.82 u	All-time • 5800 settled
Grade A	259W–205L–0P	56%	-11.46 u
Grade B	3294W–2024L–8P	62%	-229.92 u

103 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter H+R+RBI	Dillon Dingler	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter H+R+RBI	Jackson Chourio	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Hits	Jeremy Pena	1.5	-267	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-520	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Cam Smith	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Dansby Swanson	0.5	-252	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-481	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-353	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jose Fermin	0.5	-287	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Josh Smith	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-325	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Michael Busch	0.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Michael Conforto	0.5	-232	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Miguel Amaya	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.5	-201	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	K Prop	Brad Lord	3.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	8.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	K Prop	Jared Jones	4.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	K Prop	Jesús Luzardo	6.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	NRFI	NRFI	-	114	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Ian Seymour	1.5	-177	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Lorenzen	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Gusto	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Hits Allow	Eduardo Rodriguez	6.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Hits Allow	JT Ginn	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Hits Allow	MacKenzie Gore	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael Lorenzen	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Outs	Ian Seymour	17.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Pitcher Outs	Jesús Luzardo	17.5	-220	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-15	Run Line	Minnesota Twins	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-14	K Prop	Michael King	3.5	-150	-	WIN	+0.667	Michael King: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-14	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-149	-	WIN	+0.671	Peter Lambert: 6.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	560	55%	-24.25u	67	48%	-12.63u	264	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	488	58%	+12.46u	49	69%	+9.77u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	168	58%	+7.09u	12	83%	+5.88u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1960	74%	-49.03u	656	72%	-41.34u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	581	56%	-25.32u	108	55%	-9.40u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	414	60%	-11.86u	69	58%	-4.42u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	54	70%	-0.54u	8	50%	-2.38u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	3
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	7
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	123	47%	-14.65u	10	40%	-2.96u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	5	40%	-1.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	35	46%	-7.07u	14	36%	-5.22u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	598	51%	-61.42u	48	44%	-12.24u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 30 total candidate(s); season N 560, 14d N 67	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 12 total candidate(s); season N 488, 14d N 49	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 168, 14d N 12	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 16 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 8	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 249 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 15 total candidate(s); season N 123, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 35, 14d N 14	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 92 total candidate(s); season N 598, 14d N 48	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 92 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 799 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 776 pitcher(s), 3434 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 584 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1413 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics, Houston Astros, San Diego Padres
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 342 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 19 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 2 line(s)/2 game(s); Earned Runs 20 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 70, fanatics 19, bovada_direct 6, fanduel 4
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2554 market side(s) checked \| 2554 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 92 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 631 \| batter bats 400 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 54 \| batter pitch-type 584 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 235 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	1:10 PM	+125	-134	1.5 (-179)	-1.5 (+148)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+159	-171	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	-165	+154	-1.5 (+102)	1.5 (-122)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+153	-187	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	+124	-150	1.5 (-186)	-1.5 (+153)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-105	-115	-1.5 (+148)	1.5 (-179)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+100	-121	-1.5 (+163)	1.5 (-198)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	+104	-125	1.5 (-195)	-1.5 (+160)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+118	-142	1.5 (-172)	-1.5 (+142)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:15 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-154)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	7:16 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+139)	1.5 (-168)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:40 PM	-131	+109	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-143)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 43 Grade B | 867 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Jared Jones Over	SOX@PIR	7:16 PM	4.5	5.9	-134	DK Over 4.5 -134 \| exact	31.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (34 play(s))

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Anthony Kay Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Sean Manaea Over

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Batter H+R+RBI - Brandon Nimmo Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Total Bases - Yainer Diaz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Elias Diaz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Hector Rodriguez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Esmerlyn Valdez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Benintendi Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Everson Pereira Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Blaze Jordan Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Max Kepler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Lane Thomas Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tim Tawa Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ryan Jeffers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Matt McLain Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Joe Mack Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Owen Caissie Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Lawrence Butler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Walker Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cal Raleigh Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Taylor Trammell Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Isaac Paredes Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Masyn Winn Over

Projection: 1.2Displayed: Over 0.5 -185Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Hao-Yu Lee Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jose Altuve Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Jared Jones Over 4.5 (-134) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-134	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-136	+106	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jared Jones: K/9 9.6, proj 5.9K over 4.7 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.8 outs/4.9 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.3% | put-away% 23.0% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jared Jones: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .300 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.4%, L7 20.1%, season 21.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -134, expected IP 4.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (43 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 (-115) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 47.5% vs 17% min; cushion +3.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 11.0, proj 9.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.2% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.263 | top pitch: Sweeper (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .216 | OPS .671
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 7.33
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.47 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-120) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 8.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 8.5 | selected line 8.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 8.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	8.5	-130	+100	-
DK	8.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-125	-102	-
Fanatics	8.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	8.5	-125	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 11.7K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 38.2% vs 17% min; cushion +3.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 14.2, proj 11.7K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.5% | put-away% 32.5% | xwOBA 0.216 | top pitch: Curveball (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Curveball: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 38 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .147 | OPS .501
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.3%, L7 21.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 36.8%/38 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.60 | Season Avg 9.27
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 8.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
K% trend: support +4.7 ppts (recent 45.3% vs season 40.6%, proj adj +2.4%)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Brad Lord Under 3.5 (-164) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	+128	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 2.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 31.7% vs 17% min; cushion -1.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.4% / under 58.6%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brad Lord: K/9 9.0, proj 2.4K over 3.0 IP (season 2.5 IP/GS; recent 1.7 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 14.8% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Slider (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brad Lord: 30 PA | K% 3.3% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .286 | OPS .833
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 21.5%, L7 21.2%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.2%/6 hitters, BVP 3.3%/30 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 21.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 26/29 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-164); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Ian Seymour Under 17.5 (-125) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-108	-124	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 13.418000000000001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 23.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.6 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS, weight 90%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 4.7 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.4%, L7 22.2%, season 24.3%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 8.4%, L7 9.0%, season 10.2%, BVP 6.7%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 33/38 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.60 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +8.47 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 17.5 (-220) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -220

Selected market: Over 63.7% / Under 36.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 21.078999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 20.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.7% / under 36.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .216 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.8%, L7 8.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.3%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.50 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.54 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-220); break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 5.5 (-130) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 7.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 34.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.69 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 2.05, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 36 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .233 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.8%, L7 22.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 8.3%/36 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (-120) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-111	-120	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 10.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 80 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .254 | OPS .802
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.0%, L7 22.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 16.2%/80 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 (-136) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 50 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .390 | OPS .908
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.0%/50 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 6.5 (-165) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 5.5 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 15.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 79 PA | K% 29.1% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .225 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 18.4%, L7 26.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 29.1%/79 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ian Seymour Over 1.5 (-177) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -177 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.56 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.8% / under 40.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .538
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.4%, L7 22.2%, season 24.3%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/38 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-177) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 (-135) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.44 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.83, ERA 7.54)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 36 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .233 | OPS .648
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.8%, L7 22.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 8.3%/36 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Under 2.5 (-135) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.36 over 3.9 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.55)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.9 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.089
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.5%, L7 23.0%, season 25.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-155) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.13 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 4.62)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Joey Cantillo: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .083 | OPS .298
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.1%, L7 17.3%, season 21.7% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-267) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-267) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 26 play(s) (B 26)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-400) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-375) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 102/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 102/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 98/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 98/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-550) diff 63.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 14 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .819
BVP walk adjustment: 0.94x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-481) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -481 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -481

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -481 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 98/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-481); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-375) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/104 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 76/104 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-425) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/120 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 89/120 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-400) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/120 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 89/120 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-475) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-375) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.19
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/113 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 93/113 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-450) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/114 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 90/114 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-550) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .665
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 78/111 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/115 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 93/115 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-330) diff 51.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-330) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-520) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -520

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+344	-520	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.70x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/121 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 79/121 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-520); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-422) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/120 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 88/120 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-325) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/114 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 79/114 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-325); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-252) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -252

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -252 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+178	-252	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/118 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 78/118 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Heavy juice (-252); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-353) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -353

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-353	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 84/118 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-353); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-201) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -201

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -201 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+144	-201	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .236
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/123 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 38/63 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 76/123 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.53

⚠ Heavy juice (-201); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-165) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+119	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/122 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/60 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/62 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/122 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-232) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -232 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-232); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-287) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-287); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-425) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-137) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-137	+103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.577 (42 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-136) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.565 (107 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/89 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 28/44 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 52/89 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.34

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Minnesota Twins +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Minnesota Twins 1.5 -131 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: MyBookie Minnesota Twins 1.5 -131 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[IL] Caleb Kilian (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
Model run margin: -0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+10.88/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.8% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jesús Luzardo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 96 vs LHP (neutral)
Target Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 63%, bullpen 37%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Jesús Luzardo elite xFIP (2.92)

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (867 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (B 5 | C 21)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (-109) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -109

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-110	-118	-
DK	6.5	-109	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 9.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 47.5% vs 17% min; cushion +3.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.2% / under 50.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 11.0, proj 9.6K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 32.2% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.263 | top pitch: Sweeper (49% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .216 | OPS .671
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 41 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.80 | Season Avg 7.33
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.47 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 (+115) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+115	-147	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 45.4% vs 17% min; cushion +2.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.2, proj 6.5K over 5.8 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/3 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 19.9% | xwOBA 0.354 | top pitch: Sweeper (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 35 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .242 | OPS .659
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.1%, L7 24.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 25.7%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/3 (0%) | L10 0/3 (0%) | L20 0/3 (0%) | Season 0/3 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/3 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.6% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (-156) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-122	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 6.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 17.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sean Manaea: K/9 9.4, proj 6.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Sweeper: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .317 | OPS .846
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 26.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/25 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.24
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 3.5 (-138) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-138	+108	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	3.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.0, proj 3.8K over 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.334 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 56 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .149 | OPS .477
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 17.4%, L7 18.6%, season 19.2%, active roster 17.0%/6 hitters, BVP 17.9%/56 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 18.6% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.09
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Ian Seymour Over 6.5 (-122) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
DK	6.5	-122	-105	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-111	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.6K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 10.7, proj 6.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Changeup: 31.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 30 PA | K% 23.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .185 | OPS .538
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 23.4%, L7 22.2%, season 24.3%, BVP 23.3%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/38 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.50 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +3.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-136) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -136

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+107	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	+118	-150	-
Fanatics	3.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.98K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 5.7, proj 2.5K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.4% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.372 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Changeup: 25.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Lorenzen: 36 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .233 | OPS .648
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.8%, L7 22.4%, season 20.9%, BVP 8.3%/36 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/25 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.24
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.1 ppts (recent 8.8% vs season 14.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 (+103) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +103

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-131	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.90K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Gusto: K/9 8.1, proj 3.6K over 4.2 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Cutter (25% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Cutter: 19.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Gusto: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.089
Opponent K profile: composite 23.8%, split 23.5%, L7 23.0%, season 25.2% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/15 (87%) | Season 13/15 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.87
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-114) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-105	-123	-
DK	4.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
JT Ginn: K/9 8.2, proj 5.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 80 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .254 | OPS .802
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 23.0%, L7 22.0%, season 22.8%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 16.2%/80 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — J.T. Ginn Over 4.5 (+100) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
J.T. Ginn: K/9 8.2, proj 5.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.8% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Changeup: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 80 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .254 | OPS .802
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 80 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.5%, split 23.0%, L7 22.0%, season 22.8%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 16.2%/80 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Texas Rangers 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 48%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 22.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.46
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael McGreevy Under 3.5 (-143) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+100	-130	-
DK	3.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.6, proj 3.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.0% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.361 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael McGreevy: 81 PA | K% 8.6% | BB% 7.4% | AVG .370 | OPS .981
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 81 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.4%, L7 21.3%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 8.6%/81 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.70
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 (+132) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
FanDuel	3.5	+132	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.6% / under 59.4%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Randy Dobnak: K/9 6.2, proj 3.8K over 5.2 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 17.9% | put-away% 10.4% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Sweeper (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Sweeper: 38.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.8%, L7 24.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/7 (29%) | L20 2/7 (29%) | Season 2/7 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.71 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: K L10: 2/7 over 3.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 5.5 (+125) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.7, proj 5.9K over 5.9 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .682
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.1%, L7 21.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/89 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Bradish Under 4.5 (-113) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.0% / under 50.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Bradish: K/9 8.1, proj 4.2K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Curveball: 26.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 84 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .237 | OPS .704
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 84 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.4%, L7 14.2%, season 18.8%, active roster 15.7%/6 hitters, BVP 21.4%/84 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 14.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.26
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-109) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -109

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-103	-125	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-117	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.8% / under 49.2%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Webb: K/9 6.8, proj 5.1K over 6.5 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.3% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Changeup: 31.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 141 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .880
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 141 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.9%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.90
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Anthony Kay Under 4.5 (-125) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+110	-140	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Anthony Kay: K/9 7.5, proj 4.3K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 14.5% | xwOBA 0.344 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Sweeper: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 19 PA | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.088
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 25.3%, L7 19.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.92
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Over 6.5 (+109) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cam Schlittler: K/9 12.5, proj 6.9K over 6.0 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.5% | put-away% 24.3% | xwOBA 0.266 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 21.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .303 | OPS .723
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 100 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.8%, L7 21.3%, season 19.6%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.60 | Season Avg 7.28
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season
K% trend: support +9.5 ppts (recent 40.9% vs season 31.4%, proj adj +4.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs RHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.95) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Under 4.5 (+127) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +127

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	-
DK	4.5	-163	+127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.2, proj 4.3K over 5.8 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.2% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .346 | OPS 1.029
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.9%, L7 27.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.70
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
K% trend: support +5.7 ppts (recent 24.8% vs season 19.1%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 102 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 (+121) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+121	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.6, proj 4.7K over 5.8 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Changeup (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Changeup: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 79 PA | K% 29.1% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .225 | OPS .656
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 18.4%, L7 26.8%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.1%/7 hitters, BVP 29.1%/79 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 26.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.21
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (+129) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +129

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+126	-164	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+129	-165	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 4.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Troy Melton: K/9 8.0, proj 5.8K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 60 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .577
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 23.3%, season 23.9%, BVP 16.7%/60 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (+134) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+130	-170	-
FanDuel	6.5	+134	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.3% / under 59.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 10.7, proj 6.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.7% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Curveball: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .209 | OPS .695
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.1%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 32.4% vs season 28.2%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Under 5.5 (-145) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Connor Prielipp: K/9 10.2, proj 5.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Curveball: 27.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.3%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 30.3% vs season 24.7%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Under 4.5 (-121) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
DK	4.5	-106	-121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 48.4% / under 51.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Boyd: K/9 6.7, proj 4.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 65 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .246 | OPS .674
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.9%, L7 19.1%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 21.5%/65 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 20.1%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 (+101) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-129	+101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.0, proj 4.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.3% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 37.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .279 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.9%, L7 17.0%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.7%/7 hitters, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.7% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matt Boyd Under 4.5 (-120) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 6.7, proj 4.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 16.1% | xwOBA 0.332 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 65 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .246 | OPS .674
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.9%, L7 19.1%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 21.5%/65 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
K% trend: headwind -5.8 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 20.1%, proj adj -2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brady Singer Under 4.5 (+102) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-130	+101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-130	+102	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.3% / under 46.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brady Singer: K/9 7.5, proj 4.4K over 5.6 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 16.9% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Sweeper: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .343 | OPS .875
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 36 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.7%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.35
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 (+115) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+124	-161	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+115	-147	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+126	-162	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 10.3, proj 6.5K over 5.6 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.7% | put-away% 21.3% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Changeup (43% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 50 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .390 | OPS .908
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.0%/50 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/25 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 5.96
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 113 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 15 play(s) (B 1 | C 14)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-258) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.245 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/65 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 84/118 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Sal Stewart Under 1.5 (-262) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -262 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+193	-262	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.259)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.398 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/38 (32%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 91/121 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/61 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 91/121 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-234) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+170	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.247)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 46/58 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.90 | Day Batter Hits: 88/119 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-220) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.346 (57 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/31 (26%) | L5 7/16 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 84/117 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-260) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/122 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 42/63 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 88/122 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-220) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.306)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 19/42 (45%) | L5 11/22 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/113 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/55 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 73/113 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-224) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+166	-224	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.333 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .236
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/44 (25%) | L5 3/24 (12%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/123 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter Hits: 48/63 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 90/123 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-190) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.368 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/104 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 73/104 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Drake Baldwin Under 1.5 (-263) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+193	-263	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/54 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Harris II Under 1.5 (-263) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+193	-263	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.346 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 82/116 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-229) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.282)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.299 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 5/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/123 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/63 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 45/60 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 91/123 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-230) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -230

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	1.5	+170	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/47 (28%) | L5 11/24 (46%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter Hits: 78/116 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-184) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.290)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/42 (19%) | L5 2/22 (9%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.92 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 77/112 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-208) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -208 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.316)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/45 (24%) | L5 4/24 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 70/115 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-214) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+159	-214	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.25 (AVG 0.312)
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.255 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/62 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter Hits: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 73/119 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 90 play(s) (B 2 | C 88)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-139) diff 87.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-139	+104	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 87.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.389
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/105 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 62/105 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-131) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.42
Base projection 2.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/118 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/65 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/53 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.74 | Day Batter HRR: 72/118 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.42

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-109) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 67/121 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 33/55 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.62 | Day Batter HRR: 67/121 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-113) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.47
Base projection 2.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.272 (50 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 15 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/120 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.47
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.57 | Day Batter HRR: 71/120 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 74/119 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/62 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 74/119 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+116) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/116 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/57 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.65 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 67/116 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+105) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.405, xSLG 0.509 (131 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-117) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.343 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/122 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-135) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/94 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 33/47 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 57/94 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-132) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.158, xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 62/120 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-115) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.425 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-128) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 57/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+100) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.378 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 54/119 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-117) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.153, xSLG 0.146 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 63/118 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-106) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 35 PA | 12/34 | HR 1 | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .930
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-119) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.430 (69 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/121 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/56 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 59/121 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-118) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.436 (116 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-115) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.126, xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/118 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/118 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-107) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.317, xSLG 0.402 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 31/55 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/116 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+110) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.465 (37 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/122 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 60/122 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-116) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-103) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.254, xSLG 0.305 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .665
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-140) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.429 (71 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/120 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 61/120 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+103) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.434, xSLG 0.598 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/119 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 61/119 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-125) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.264, xSLG 0.317 (38 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+107) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.301, xSLG 0.362 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/119 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 60/119 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-147) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 2.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-147	+111	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.441 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-140) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/123 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.11 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 58/123 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.366 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 63/113 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-116) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.425 (35 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/102 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 46/102 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+128) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/116 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.13 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 64/116 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+124) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.251 (70 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/104 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 57/104 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-107) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.232 (48 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/121 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/121 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-109) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.210 (41 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-118) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.286, xSLG 0.375 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/117 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 54/117 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+126) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/122 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 64/122 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+100) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.262 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+100) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 50/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+131) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.405, xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+132) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.354 (114 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/121 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/63 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 62/121 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-105) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+104) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+122) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+111) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.387 (62 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+121) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.449 (97 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 15 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .867
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 46/93 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-125) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-122) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrés Chaparro Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brady House Over 1.5 (+115) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Harry Ford Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-130) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (-130) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-125) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-101) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Malgeri Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+122) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-121) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (-125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-152) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-152) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-148) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (-130) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-122) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-106) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (-105) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+107) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+113) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy (2002) Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-143) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.49 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.407 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .236
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/123 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.38 | Away Batter HRR: 37/63 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 72/123 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-105) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+121) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+139) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-140) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 249 play(s) (B 1 | C 237 | D 11)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-120) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .236
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/123 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 59/123 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 374.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 374.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/121 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 50/60 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 35/61 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 85/121 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.27

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 374% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan De La Cruz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 296.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 296.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.524 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/51 over 0.5 (74%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 33/51 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 71/102 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.91

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 296% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 285.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 89/119 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/62 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 42/57 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 89/119 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 286% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (-180) diff 284.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 284.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (57 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.79

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-190) diff 267.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 267.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/57 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 82/116 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 267.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 267.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/57 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 82/116 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 244.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 244.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.240 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 78/115 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.90

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 245% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 237.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 237.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (48 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 79/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/57 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 79/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 237% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (-180) diff 231.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 231.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.464 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/118 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 42/61 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 82/118 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.61

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lockridge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 0.5 (-180) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-130) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-130) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (+130) diff 225.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 225.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 (-185) diff 223.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.401 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/61 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 38/57 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-145) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-130) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 0.5 (-180) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Pinckney Over 0.5 (-140) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-150) diff 218.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zac Veen Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Norby Over 0.5 (-130) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Julks Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Franklin Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Everson Pereira Over 0.5 (-130) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-190) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 214.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 214.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-165) diff 214.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-130) diff 214.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-175) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Derek Hill Over 0.5 (-120) diff 212.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-120) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alika Williams Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 209.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.298 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .365
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 73/119 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-150) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brock Rodden Over 0.5 (-143) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (71 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/121 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/62 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 69/121 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.63

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-160) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-120) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 204.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-140) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-130) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 (-180) diff 203.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/119 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 41/61 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 81/119 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.61

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/116 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 75/116 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-130) diff 197.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.561 (141 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/119 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 71/119 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-120) diff 194.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/123 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 41/61 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 81/123 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 194.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 194% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 179.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/119 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 44/59 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 86/119 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 0.5 (-175) diff 179.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.276 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/58 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 79/117 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 179.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 180% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Pages Over 0.5 (-120) diff 176.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/122 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/60 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 45/62 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 86/122 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 0.5 (-180) diff 176.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/122 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/60 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 45/62 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 86/122 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-180) diff 173.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.354 (114 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 86/121 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/63 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 86/121 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-160) diff 173.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 41/58 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 83/116 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-170) diff 164.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (97 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 15 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .867
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/93 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/40 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 59/93 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 0.5 (-150) diff 163.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 64/114 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 64/114 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 163.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 164% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 163.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 163.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.387 (62 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 163.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 163.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 163% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-150) diff 158.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (25 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/117 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 71/117 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 159% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Over 0.5 (-130) diff 146.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 146.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.267 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/113 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 63/113 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 146.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 146.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 136.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.189 (78 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/104 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/50 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 54/104 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-185) diff 132.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.262 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 71/114 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 132.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 126.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/105 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 58/105 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 126.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 122.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.398 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 11/31 | HR 3 | K% 21.2% | BB% 6.1% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 59/112 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 122.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-130) diff 107.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.447 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 68/116 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 107.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-165) diff 102.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 102.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Base projection 1.24 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (36 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 43/55 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 102.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 102.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.51 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.317 (109 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/60 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 63/118 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 62.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter TB: 58/114 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 62.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-109) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/121 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/60 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 57/121 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 58.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-105) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.475 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/122 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 64/122 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+115) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.389
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+116) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.577 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 48/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+102) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.565 (107 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/89 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 35/89 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+125) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.428 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/121 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 58/121 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-105) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/118 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 54/118 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+112) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.454 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+105) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 51/116 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+128) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.272 (50 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 15 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/120 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter TB: 52/120 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+110) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.524 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+138) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/121 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 58/121 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-189) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.02
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.251 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/118 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 45/61 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 86/118 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+128) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/122 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 51/122 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.577 (71 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 29/63 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+104) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-130) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (57 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+106) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.602 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/121 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 47/121 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+142) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.489 (52 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+133) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.305 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .665
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+122) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+125) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.734 (24 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/53 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 40/104 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-109) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.349 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/52 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+110) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 54/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+109) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/99 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 41/99 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+130) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+124) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.572 (63 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/119 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 47/119 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+140) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.378 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 42/119 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 42/119 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+100) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (46 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/122 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 51/122 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-140) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.521 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/104 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 48/104 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-199) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 30/49 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 62/101 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+134) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/122 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 43/122 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 27/60 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+114) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.339 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/122 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/63 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 50/122 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+130) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.240 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 51/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (73 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 58/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/120 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/60 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 45/120 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-150) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/114 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 47/114 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+140) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 35 PA | 12/34 | HR 1 | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .930
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+143) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .582
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/116 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 42/116 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-161) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.316 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (48 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 42/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+127) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/123 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 51/123 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-180) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (61 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/118 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 77/118 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+111) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+140) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (37 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/122 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 46/122 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+114) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.617 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 33/93 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 15/47 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 33/93 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.427 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/119 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 44/119 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+124) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 44/94 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/47 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 44/94 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+139) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.477 (30 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/57 over 1.5 (28%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+128) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+141) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+132) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/120 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 43/120 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.598 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/119 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/119 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.146 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/118 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 47/118 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Under 1.5 (-227) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.284 (24 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 66/107 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.251 (52 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/119 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 45/119 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+160) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+150) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/117 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 43/117 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+121) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Bericoto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Under 1.5 (-167) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 38/62 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 74/117 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eduardo Valencia Over 1.5 (+155) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joshua Baez Over 1.5 (+167) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+164) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+186) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+121) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (69 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/65 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 43/121 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Byron Buxton Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edmundo Sosa Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.210 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-185) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 14 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 63/118 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+106) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.238 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 5/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/123 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/63 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 41/123 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+142) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+121) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 (+204) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +204

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-162) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (35 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/102 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/47 under 1.5 (57%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter TB: 69/102 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+147) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+182) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +182

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 1.5 (+164) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.451 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/122 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 41/122 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+148) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Under 1.5 (-183) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 71/114 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-165) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.380 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/123 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/62 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 81/123 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+137) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-180) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/118 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 82/118 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-165) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (48 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/121 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 76/121 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/30 | HR 3 | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .858
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/124 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/61 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 22/63 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 48/124 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+145) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 42/116 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 42/116 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Under 1.5 (-186) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.57 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 72/116 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-173) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.436 (116 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 68/114 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-200) diff 189.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/97 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/48 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 58/97 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-180) diff 179.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 179.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (72 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/59 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 72/116 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 179.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-165) diff 178.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (70 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 67/104 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-165) diff 177.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 65/115 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-165) diff 177.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 65/115 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-180) diff 165.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/121 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/62 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 64/121 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 151.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 1.03 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 62/120 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 147.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 17 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .827
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 76/118 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-150) diff 145.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 145.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/109 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/56 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 61/109 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 145.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 144.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (63 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 64/115 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-160) diff 141.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (68 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 30/60 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 64/115 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books | 5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is MyBookie Under 5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
MyBookie	5	-111	-110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.14
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.22
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (B 1 | C 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — St. Louis Cardinals (+142) edge 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +142 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +142

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +142 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.14
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.22
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+122) edge 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5) | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct +125 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +122

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct +125 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.10
Brad Lord xFIP 3.83
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 93 blended 50% (team 96)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)
Away SP: Brad Lord (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Pitcher Outs — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-192) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-193	+142	-
DK	17.5	-192	+144	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-185	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 20.208000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 15.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 1.97 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 38 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .147 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.3%, L7 21.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 36.8%/38 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 12.0%, L7 8.5%, season 9.8%, BVP 10.5%/38 PA (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 18.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.71 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.71 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Emerson Hancock Under 17.5 (-133) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	17.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	+100	-133	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 15.054999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 76)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 76
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .279 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.9%, L7 17.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.2%, L7 8.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 4.2%/48 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.10 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.45 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.45 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+158) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +158

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 18.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+158	-213	Raw BestVerify
DK	18.5	+158	-213	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.078999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 2.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 36.3% / under 63.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Jesús Luzardo: 41 PA | K% 31.7% | BB% 7.3% | AVG .216 | OPS .671
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.4%, L7 22.5%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.7%/41 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 7.8%, L7 8.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 7.3%/41 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.50 | Season Avg 17.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-118) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-121	-110	-
DK	17.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 19.267 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 60 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .577
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 23.3%, season 23.9%, BVP 16.7%/60 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 9.4%, L7 9.1%, season 8.9%, BVP 13.3%/60 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-186) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -186

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+141	-
DK	17.5	-186	+139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-215	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 19.073999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.82 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.9% / under 39.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .303 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.8%, L7 21.3%, season 19.6%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.6%, L7 8.2%, season 7.4%, BVP 8.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brady Singer Under 17.5 (-107) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -107

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-134	+100	-
DK	17.5	-124	-107	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.176000000000002 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.32 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .343 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.7%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 9.6%, L7 9.8%, season 8.9%, BVP 2.8%/36 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 15.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.99 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 17.5 (+116) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-157	+118	-
DK	17.5	-154	+116	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 16.908 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.10 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .317 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 26.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.0%, L7 6.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.5%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 19/25 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 12.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.14 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 (-128) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	17.5	-107	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-104	-128	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.912 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.78 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 50 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .390 | OPS .908
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.0%/50 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 9.8%, L7 5.9%, season 8.7%, BVP 14.0%/50 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/25 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 16.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 18.5 (+140) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	+140	-187	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.886 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.0% / under 61.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.1%, L7 21.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/89 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.4%, split 10.1%, L7 8.3%, season 9.2%, BVP 3.4%/89 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/22 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Under 17.5 (-115) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	-
DK	17.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.264 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.1 IP (season 6.1 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.1 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .346 | OPS 1.029
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.9%, L7 27.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.8%, split 12.2%, L7 13.2%, season 10.8%, BVP 10.3%/29 PA (adj 1.20x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.1 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 11.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/20 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 18.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 (+120) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-152	+115	-
DK	17.5	-159	+120	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.354999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.41 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 79 PA | K% 29.1% | BB% 7.6% | AVG .225 | OPS .656
Opponent K profile: composite 22.4%, split 18.4%, L7 26.8%, season 21.5%, BVP 29.1%/79 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.5%, L7 6.5%, season 7.8%, BVP 7.6%/79 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.60 | Season Avg 17.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 20.5 (-116) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 20.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 20.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 20.5 | selected line 20.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 20.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 20.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	20.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	20.5	-118	-113	-
DK	20.5	-116	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.601 vs line 20.5 | DIFF% 0.5% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.72 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 20.5 | selected line 20.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 107)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.3 | pitch-count proxy 107
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 141 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .880
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.9%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 8.3%, L7 9.6%, season 8.2%, BVP 4.3%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.4 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 20.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 19.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 20.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Reid Detmers Over 17.5 (-120) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.557 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 47 PA | K% 23.4% | BB% 6.4% | AVG .209 | OPS .695
Opponent K profile: composite 21.8%, split 22.3%, L7 20.9%, season 21.1%, BVP 23.4%/47 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 5.6%, L7 8.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (-105) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 8.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.8%, L7 24.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/7 (71%) | L20 5/7 (71%) | Season 5/7 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.86 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/7 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Anthony Kay Under 5.5 (-158) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 19 PA | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.088
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 25.3%, L7 19.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (-108) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -108

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.75 over 6.2 IP (WHIP 1.01, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.4% / under 48.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 141 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .880
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.9%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brady Singer Over 5.5 (-125) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brady Singer: 36 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 2.8% | AVG .343 | OPS .875
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.7%, L7 24.3%, season 21.7%, BVP 16.7%/36 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Over 5.5 (-105) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 5.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .346 | OPS 1.029
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.9%, L7 27.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (-149) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.19, BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 65 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .246 | OPS .674
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.9%, L7 19.1%, season 20.4%, BVP 21.5%/65 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (+124) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -170 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	4.5	-170	+120	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-165	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 41.8% / under 58.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .317 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 26.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/25 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-120) Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.03 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 48 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .279 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 19.9%, L7 17.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.8%/48 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 (+137) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8226966256584731 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.30 over 5.7 IP (BB% 7.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 65 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .246 | OPS .674
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.9%, L7 19.1%, season 20.4%, BVP 21.5%/65 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 10.8%, L7 9.4%, season 8.6%, BVP 9.2%/65 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/14 (50%) | Season 7/14 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (+103) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7671867956660328 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .317 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 26.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 9.0%, L7 6.8%, season 9.0%, BVP 7.5%/67 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-167) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.73 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 1.26)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Troy Melton: 60 PA | K% 16.7% | BB% 13.3% | AVG .157 | OPS .577
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 23.3%, season 23.9%, BVP 16.7%/60 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/13 (23%) | Season 3/13 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-110) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.72 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 1.97, ERA 2.12)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 38 PA | K% 36.8% | BB% 10.5% | AVG .147 | OPS .501
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 20.3%, L7 21.8%, season 20.5%, BVP 36.8%/38 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 2.5 (+100) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.59 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.33, ERA 4.12)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/3 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 35 PA | K% 25.7% | BB% 2.9% | AVG .242 | OPS .659
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 18.1%, L7 24.5%, season 23.0%, BVP 25.7%/35 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.67 | Season Avg 2.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Under 2.5 (-150) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.33 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 3.08)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 89 PA | K% 29.2% | BB% 3.4% | AVG .212 | OPS .682
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.1%, L7 21.6%, season 24.1%, BVP 29.2%/89 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 2.5 (-125) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.98 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 2.85)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Randy Dobnak: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS .661
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.8%, L7 24.7%, season 25.2% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/7 (86%) | L20 6/7 (86%) | Season 6/7 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.14 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/7 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-109) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.82 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 50 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 14.0% | AVG .390 | OPS .908
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 29.5%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.0%/50 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Bradish Under 2.5 (-155) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Bradish: 84 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 9.5% | AVG .237 | OPS .704
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.4%, L7 14.2%, season 18.8%, BVP 21.4%/84 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 3.96, ERA 4.55)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Connor Prielipp: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.9%, split 21.6%, L7 17.8%, season 22.9% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-155) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.25 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.50, ERA 3.34)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Grant Holmes: 56 PA | K% 17.9% | BB% 16.1% | AVG .149 | OPS .477
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 17.4%, L7 18.6%, season 19.2%, BVP 17.9%/56 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 2.5 (+117) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.20, ERA 4.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.1 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 29 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .346 | OPS 1.029
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.9%, L7 27.6%, season 21.6%, BVP 13.8%/29 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Anthony Kay Over 2.5 (+108) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+108	-143	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.61 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 3.65)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.0% / under 55.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Anthony Kay: 19 PA | K% 5.3% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .389 | OPS 1.088
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 25.3%, L7 19.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 5.3%/19 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (+120) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 3.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Manaea: 67 PA | K% 22.4% | BB% 7.5% | AVG .317 | OPS .846
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 26.5%, L7 22.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 22.4%/67 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 5/25 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-163) Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.88 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 3.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.0% / under 58.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Boyd: 65 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 9.2% | AVG .246 | OPS .674
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 16.9%, L7 19.1%, season 20.4%, BVP 21.5%/65 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-104) Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.44 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.82, ERA 2.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Cam Schlittler: 100 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 8.0% | AVG .303 | OPS .723
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.8%, L7 21.3%, season 19.6%, BVP 20.0%/100 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/25 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-162) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.46 over 6.2 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 3.31)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.2 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.3 IP; outs market 20.5 outs/6.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 141 PA | K% 19.9% | BB% 4.3% | AVG .333 | OPS .880
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.1%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 19.9%/141 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 2.5 (+114) Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.31, ERA 3.90)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs J.T. Ginn: 80 PA | K% 16.2% | BB% 8.8% | AVG .254 | OPS .802
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.0%, L7 22.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 16.2%/80 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 206 play(s) (C 206)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-110) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/118 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/58 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 53/118 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-110) diff 63.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.82 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.79
Base projection 0.79 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/104 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.79
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 55/104 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.79

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-375) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-330) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-330	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/123 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 96/123 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-320) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/123 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 96/123 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-350) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/123 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 96/123 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-300) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/113 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 85/113 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-300) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.65x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-245) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.65x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-375) diff 49.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.65x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-330) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/101 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 74/101 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-375) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 70/97 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 70/97 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-425) diff 48.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 83/115 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 83/115 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-450) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-450) diff 48.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/119 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/60 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 82/119 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-375) diff 47.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/122 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 84/122 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-115) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/123 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 31/61 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 63/123 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-330) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 88/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-500) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 83/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-245) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-500) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-140) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-550) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-215) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-270) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-475) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-150) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/117 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.71 | Day Batter Walks: 63/117 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.68

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-280) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 86/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/89 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 61/89 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-280) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/121 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/62 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 87/121 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-350) diff 42.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/118 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 87/118 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-340) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .365
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 79/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 79/119 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-300) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/119 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 89/119 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-376) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 15 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .829
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/120 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 85/120 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-270) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 78/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-350) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/119 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-265) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/116 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 74/116 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-475) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-425) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-400) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-255) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-425) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-225) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-475) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-140) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-255) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-310) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-240) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-280) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-130) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-245) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-230) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-165) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+105) diff 35.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/117 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 20/63 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 42/117 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-280) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-210) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 17 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .827
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 82/118 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 82/118 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-185) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-150) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-165) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-195) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-210) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-300) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-230) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-200) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-450) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-450) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-266) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -266

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+188	-266	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-290) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-347) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -347

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -347 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-347	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Pinckney Under 0.5 (-372) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -372

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -372 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+255	-372	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-376) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-255) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-255) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-300) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-300) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-450) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-155) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brock Rodden Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Robles Under 0.5 (-550) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-340) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-350) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/120 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 92/120 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 78/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (+115) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.33x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/119 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/61 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 50/119 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/119 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/119 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-525) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-140) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Julks Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-120) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-215) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-215) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-475) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-310) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-155) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-255) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-289) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -289

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -289 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+203	-289	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 78/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+165) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/121 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/60 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 22/61 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 48/121 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-320) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-270) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-240) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-215) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-225) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hays Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-185) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-240) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-330) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+135) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.083
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/57 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 26/61 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 45/118 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-320) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 15 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .867
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/93 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/53 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 60/93 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-245) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/105 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 78/105 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-170) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 5/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/123 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/63 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/60 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 76/123 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-375) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-265) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-310) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/121 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 77/121 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+140) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/118 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 55/118 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-320) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 77/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-217) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/120 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/60 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 69/120 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-280) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 68/116 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-270) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 80/121 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 80/121 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-200) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.65x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/30 | HR 3 | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .858
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/124 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/61 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.77 | Away Batter Walks: 39/63 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 68/124 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-500) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-375) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-550) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-280) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-375) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-240) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+105) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 37/102 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/47 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 37/102 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (+125) diff 21.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/116 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 15/57 over 0.5 (26%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 44/116 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .708
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/122 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 79/122 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-525) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 81/117 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-340) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.35x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 86/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-170) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-148) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+107	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.389
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.67 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 64/105 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-310) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/104 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 27/50 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 64/104 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (+200) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 39/90 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+145) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 39/90 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-320) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 67/112 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-180) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/102 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/51 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 60/102 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-170) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/121 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 78/121 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-265) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP walk adjustment: 0.95x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/116 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 79/116 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-240) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 73/119 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP walk adjustment: 0.95x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/116 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 79/116 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-224) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/121 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/65 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 80/121 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+140) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 100.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/120 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/61 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 44/120 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-210) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 71/103 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-225) diff 15.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 27/55 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 62/110 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-425) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/99 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 63/99 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-274) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-274	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 69/116 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-265) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/119 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/60 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/119 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-300) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 77/119 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-140) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/118 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/61 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 68/118 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-200) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/117 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 83/117 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-215) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/105 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 30/50 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 66/105 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-225) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/54 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 61/113 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-310) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 83/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+175) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +175

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 18/59 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 46/113 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-132) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -132

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-105	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.303
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 36/61 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 63/119 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 (-120) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP BB% 10.7% (walk adj 1.26x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/61 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 20/60 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 44/121 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 (+165) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/94 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/47 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 16/47 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 35/94 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-200) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/122 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 74/122 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+200) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/121 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/60 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 63/121 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/121 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/60 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 63/121 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (+140) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/113 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/55 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 18/58 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 37/113 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+115) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/46 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.72 | Away Batter Walks: 21/47 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 47/93 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-130) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 76/122 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 76/122 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+170) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/89 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/45 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 15/44 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 32/89 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-195) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 10.1% (walk adj 1.19x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/59 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 72/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+101) edge 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+102	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+100	-	-
DK	7.5	+101	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+100	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-101	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Bradish (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.03
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (-115) edge 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -115

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-110	-	RecommendedRaw Best
BetUS	7.5	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-120	-	-
DK	7.5	-115	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-118	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-113	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-112	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-115	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+100) edge 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	+100	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	+100	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-105	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
DK	7.5	+100	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-106	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+103	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	7.5	-105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[IL] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Braydon Fisher (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs RHP (neutral)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.82)

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+114) edge 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +114

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0335 after 0.0100 buffer
Eduardo Rodriguez / Grant Holmes announced and matched

▸ Batter HR — 235 play(s) (C 235)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0088
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.354 (19 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS 2.467 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 113/114 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 113/114 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.296 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 113/113 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/58 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 113/113 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.0% / Under 81.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alika Williams Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Byron Buxton Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Julks Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Pinckney Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lockridge Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0351
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.262 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 15 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .762
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/114 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/61 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 110/114 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0435
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.370 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/115 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 110/115 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 90.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0508
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 14 PA | 4/13 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/118 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 112/118 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0614
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (36 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 89.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0508
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.251 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 112/118 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 112/118 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0488
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.238 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 8 PA | 5/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.09x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 117/123 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 117/123 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0678
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.317 (109 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/118 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/60 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 111/118 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0583
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .819
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 113/120 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 113/120 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0744
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.354 (114 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 12 PA | 5/12 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 112/121 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/63 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 112/121 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0792
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 7 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.914 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/101 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 93/101 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0680
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.380 (31 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/103 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/103 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0734
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (61 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .550
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 109/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0948
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.447 (32 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 105/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0756
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/119 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 110/119 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0756
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brady Singer contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Brady Singer: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/119 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 110/119 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 84.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.398 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 33 PA | 11/31 | HR 3 | K% 21.2% | BB% 6.1% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0851
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/94 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/47 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 86/94 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0862
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.311 (56 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 22.2% | OPS .730
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/116 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/116 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.349 (36 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 105/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 105/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1043
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (63 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0877
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.477 (30 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/114 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/114 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.485 (39 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/119 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 105/119 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1017
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.146 (29 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0984
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 112/122 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 112/122 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0965
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.436 (116 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1092
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (54 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1356
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 17 PA | 3/15 | HR 1 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .827
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1102
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.316 (21 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.317 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.441 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1074
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (69 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 109/121 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 109/121 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1210
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 31 PA | 7/30 | HR 3 | K% 32.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .858
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/124 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 110/124 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1138
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 110/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1138
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 110/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1215
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.320 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 35 PA | 12/34 | HR 1 | K% 17.1% | BB% 2.9% | OPS .930
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 35 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/107 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 96/107 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.251 (70 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/105 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/105 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1290
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.449 (97 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 15 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 13.3% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .867
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/93 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 81/93 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1453
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.263 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.92x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (25 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 76, HR vulnerability 24 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 101/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1240
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (48 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 108/121 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 108/121 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (68 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1346
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.189 (78 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brad Lord contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brad Lord: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/104 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 90/104 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-425) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.521 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 2 | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS 1.333
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/120 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 106/120 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1340
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (49 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 6 PA | 4/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/97 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 85/97 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Pages Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1639
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/122 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 104/122 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1639
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/122 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 104/122 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.384 (73 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 102/117 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/117 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1230
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (37 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/122 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 110/122 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1271
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.464 (34 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS 1.083
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1148
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.343 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 2 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/122 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 108/122 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.402 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.427 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/119 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/119 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1504
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.387 (62 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 6 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.451 (28 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 95/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.278 (72 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1466
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1466
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1466
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.340 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 27 PA | 10/25 | HR 1 | K% 14.8% | BB% 7.4% | OPS 1.124
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 27 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-650) diff 69.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1569
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (35 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-750) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.267 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1653
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.412 (71 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 102/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.489 (52 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1743
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.210 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .542
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1709
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/117 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 98/117 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1513
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.577 (71 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 9 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1525
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.251 (52 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/119 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 100/119 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1653
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.232 (48 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/121 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 102/121 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1570
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/121 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 104/121 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (48 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.354 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.249 (48 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1639
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.339 (94 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .944
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 103/122 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 103/122 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1638
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (35 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 8.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .582
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 98/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1933
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.298 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 9 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .365
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 97/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-450) diff 64.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2308
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.216 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.366 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/113 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 87/113 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1765
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.572 (63 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/119 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/119 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1930
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.562 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-650) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 98/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2017
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.266 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.561 (141 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Cam Schlittler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/119 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 96/119 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2261
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/115 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 90/115 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2261
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 10 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.93x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/115 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 90/115 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-425) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1795
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (57 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/117 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/117 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1795
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.334 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.473 (57 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .452 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/117 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/117 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.0% / Under 81.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2033
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.271 (52 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/123 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 99/123 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.378 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 11 PA | 5/9 | HR 0 | K% 27.3% | BB% 18.2% | OPS 1.303
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/119 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/119 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2269
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.598 (41 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Troy Melton: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.524 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.524 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/102 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 83/102 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2261
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.240 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2261
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.240 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 12 PA | 3/12 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.3% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2020
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (52 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2124
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.449 (64 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/113 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 93/113 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 57.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2131
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.518 (46 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1910
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.565 (107 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/89 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 74/89 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1949
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.332 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (62 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 3/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.357
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.503 (57 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 89/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1967
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.372 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (52 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/122 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/122 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.734 (24 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/104 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 85/104 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2149
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.602 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/121 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 97/121 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-500) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2151
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.617 (25 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/93 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/46 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 74/93 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-500) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2195
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.407 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .236
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/123 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 99/123 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-650) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2417
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.272 (50 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 15 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 26.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .829
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-750) diff 52.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:21 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.361 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 27, HR vulnerability 73 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS 1.389
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 1:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2301
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.344 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.577 (42 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Anthony Kay contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Anthony Kay: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.260/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 3:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2735
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.302 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.425 (76 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Braydon Fisher contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Braydon Fisher: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 49/63 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 86/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3063
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.305 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 17 PA | 5/16 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .665
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-600) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2893
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.428 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Bradish contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Kyle Bradish: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 90/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2869
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.475 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 1/10 | HR 1 | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 90/122 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/63 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 90/122 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2975
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 90/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2975
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 90/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3162
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.454 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+101	47.5%	67.9%	+20.4%	$+36.43	9	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	-115	51.1%	66.8%	+15.7%	$+24.86	9	Bet on DK
C	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+100	47.8%	63.0%	+15.2%	$+26.06	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 7.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (Total) +20.4%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.9 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 102 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Kyle Bradish (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Tropicana Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.9
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.03
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (Total) +15.7%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.8 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Logan Webb (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 103)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 7.5 — New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (Total) +15.2%

[IL] Kervin Castro (New York Yankees) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[DTD] Jose Alvarez (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Joe Mantiply (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cody Ponce (Toronto Blue Jays) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Braydon Fisher (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Cam Schlittler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs RHP (neutral)
Rogers Centre (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Toronto Blue Jays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 97 blended 35% (team 94)
New York Yankees pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 52%, bullpen 48%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Cam Schlittler elite xFIP (2.82)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5)	4:11 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	FanDuel	+122	42.8%	52.0%	+9.3%	$+15.54	3	Bet on DK
B	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 ML	St. Louis Cardinals	FanDuel	+142	39.1%	48.2%	+9.0%	$+16.57	3	Bet on DK
B	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:21 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	62.9%	+8.1%	$+7.77	2	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (F5) (F5 ML) +9.3%

[DTD] Noah Dean (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Tylor Megill (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Max Green (New York Mets) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Devin Williams (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cionel Pérez (New York Mets) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Citi Field (NEUTRAL)
Sean Manaea xFIP 4.10
Brad Lord xFIP 3.83
New York Mets pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 93 blended 50% (team 96)
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 106)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.3
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Sean Manaea (LHP)
Away SP: Brad Lord (RHP)

B St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 ML) +9.0%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.14
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.22
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 Total) +8.1%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.14
Michael McGreevy xFIP 4.22
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
Away SP: Michael McGreevy (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

1:10 PM · decision fi-6e5fefeacef53042

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -118

Raw Edge

-3.4%

Effective Edge

-4.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Anthony Kay · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Anthony Kay / Troy Melton announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAnthony Kay / Troy Melton announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-118	-108	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

2:21 PM · decision fi-07965b4642562a7e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +118

Raw Edge

+4.4%

Effective Edge

+2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -132

Raw Edge

-7.2%

Effective Edge

-8.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael McGreevy / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael McGreevy / Matthew Boyd announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-101	-132	46.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+118	-150	43.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

3:08 PM · decision fi-e991bfbe9f3100f7

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-2.6%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +105

Raw Edge

+0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Braydon Fisher · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cam Schlittler / Braydon Fisher announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCam Schlittler / Braydon Fisher announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-132	-103	52.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

4:06 PM · decision fi-af73283ed2358fed

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.7%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-3.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers +106

Raw Edge

-0.3%

Effective Edge

-1.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael Lorenzen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael Lorenzen / Logan Webb announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael Lorenzen / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-141	+106	54.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

4:11 PM · decision fi-4191f01a21b0c452

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.9%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-2.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.1%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-3.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Brad Lord · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sean Manaea · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.519
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Brad Lord / Sean Manaea announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.519

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBrad Lord / Sean Manaea announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-124	-108	51.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

6:11 PM · decision fi-aebe7af31c30351f

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.0%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -132

Raw Edge

-4.9%

Effective Edge

-6.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.0%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-3.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kyle Bradish · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ian Seymour · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.520
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Bradish / Ian Seymour announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.520

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Bradish / Ian Seymour announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-134	+100	53.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

6:41 PM · decision fi-25d36f0d459d24bd

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -106

Raw Edge

-1.7%

Effective Edge

-3.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -111

Raw Edge

-2.4%

Effective Edge

-3.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ryan Gusto · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Brady Singer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.498
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Gusto / Brady Singer announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.498

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Gusto / Brady Singer announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

7:11 PM · decision fi-d482ffbac648ab6d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: Joey Cantillo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:39:02.343362Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

7:11 PM · decision fi-392b6bf9dc7d37d7

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-3.3%

Effective Edge

-5.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Emerson Hancock · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Emerson Hancock / Hayden Wesneski announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSEmerson Hancock / Hayden Wesneski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins

7:11 PM · decision fi-b1e98d39fce5ea19

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-0.6%

Effective Edge

-1.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -105

Raw Edge

-2.6%

Effective Edge

-3.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jesús Luzardo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Connor Prielipp · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jesús Luzardo / Connor Prielipp announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJesús Luzardo / Connor Prielipp announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM · decision fi-1c3e28200ecf3596

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +114

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.4% / +3.4%

Away starter: Eduardo Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0335 after 0.0100 buffer
Eduardo Rodriguez / Grant Holmes announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0335 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSEduardo Rodriguez / Grant Holmes announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+114	-146	44.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

7:15 PM · decision fi-1f1eda37843bc29e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.0%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -127

Raw Edge

-4.0%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.0%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-1.5%

Effective Edge

-3.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jacob Misiorowski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Justin Wrobleski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.520
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jacob Misiorowski / Justin Wrobleski announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.520

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJacob Misiorowski / Justin Wrobleski announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates

7:16 PM · decision fi-f3786adc2f3b9ba8

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.1%

Fair Odds

-109

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -125

Raw Edge

-3.4%

Effective Edge

-4.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

47.9%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +112

Raw Edge

+0.7%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jared Jones · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.521
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sonny Gray / Jared Jones announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.521

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSonny Gray / Jared Jones announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-149	+112	55.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-136	+102	53.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels

9:38 PM · decision fi-dd9b13c61b57d76b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -125

Raw Edge

-4.9%

Effective Edge

-6.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -102

Raw Edge

-1.1%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Randy Dobnak · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Randy Dobnak / Reid Detmers announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRandy Dobnak / Reid Detmers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Athletics

9:40 PM · decision fi-16061533c3f0691a

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +100

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -125

Raw Edge

-6.2%

Effective Edge

-7.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: MacKenzie Gore · official_announced · matched

Home starter: J.T. Ginn · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-14 · updated 2026-08-15T07:34:29.746452Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
MacKenzie Gore / J.T. Ginn announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMacKenzie Gore / J.T. Ginn announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-107	-125	48.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 235 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=235
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	39.2%	23.1%	+16.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	-	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+240	-	37.0%	27.1%	+9.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	36.8%	19.1%	+17.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	36.0%	21.7%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	-	Kyle Bradish (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	35.7%	21.7%	+14.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	34.4%	23.1%	+11.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:15 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	34.1%	21.7%	+12.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	34.1%	23.1%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	-	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.1%	20.8%	+13.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	33.8%	19.9%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-	Emerson Hancock (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	33.6%	27.1%	+6.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ian Happ	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.5%	16.7%	+16.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	-	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	32.8%	21.7%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	-	Ian Seymour (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.7%	23.1%	+9.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.6%	18.4%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	32.4%	25.6%	+6.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	-	Hayden Wesneski (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.2%	16.7%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	-	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	32.2%	20.8%	+11.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	7:16 PM	-	Jared Jones (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	31.8%	20.8%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Randy Dobnak (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	31.8%	19.9%	+11.8%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	100	87.9%	-727	Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, Elly De La Cruz, Hector Rodriguez	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	100	86.5%	-643	Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Jordan Walker	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	100	85.9%	-609	CJ Abrams, Eddy Alvarez, Andrew Pinckney, Brady House	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	85.7%	-600	Matt Olson, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Michael Harris II	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	100	85.3%	-579	Yordan Alvarez, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Christian Walker	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	7:16 PM	100	85.0%	-568	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Brandon Lowe, Ceddanne Rafaela	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:40 PM	100	85.0%	-566	Tyler Soderstrom, Elias Diaz, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	100	84.7%	-554	Junior Caminero, Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Jonathan Aranda	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	100	84.3%	-539	Kyle Schwarber, Bryan De La Cruz, Bryce Harper, Byron Buxton	Target Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	100	84.2%	-535	Jac Caglianone, Mike Trout, Josh Lowe, Starling Marte	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	100	84.2%	-534	Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Hunter Goodman, Zac Veen	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:15 PM	100	84.0%	-526	Jackson Chourio, Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	91	83.6%	-509	-	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	1:10 PM	100	83.4%	-502	Dillon Dingler, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	100	83.0%	-488	Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Kazuma Okamoto, Spencer Jones	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Matt Olson — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves (+300) HR chance 39.2% | edge +16.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.287, OPS 0.882, ISO 0.282, TB/G 2.11
Statcast: barrel 15.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/111.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.518
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 32/122 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0211, xFIP 4.41, K% 17.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.335, xERA 4.79, whiff 20.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.708, K% 30.8% (13 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.058, OPS 0.831, ISO 0.250 (224 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins (+240) HR chance 37.0% | edge +9.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.316, OPS 0.915, ISO 0.294, TB/G 2.01
Statcast: barrel 18.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.505
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 30/117 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0311, xFIP 3.96, K% 24.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.316, xERA 4.20, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.063, OPS 0.966, ISO 0.283 (190 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.454, xwOBA 0.334 (48 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Seiya Suzuki — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (+380) HR chance 36.8% | edge +17.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.200, OPS 0.849, ISO 0.213, TB/G 1.85
Statcast: barrel 10.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.426
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 21/105 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0314, xFIP 4.22, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.69, whiff 19.0%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.389, K% 0.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.801, ISO 0.196 (336 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Sal Stewart — Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (+320) HR chance 36.0% | edge +14.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.215, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.219, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/111.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.473
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/121 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0285, xFIP 4.19, K% 19.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.32, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.792, ISO 0.221 (400 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.602, xwOBA 0.398 (32 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (+320) HR chance 35.7% | edge +14.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.289, OPS 0.916, ISO 0.272, TB/G 2.08
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.515
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/121 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0238, xFIP 3.96, K% 22.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.308, xERA 3.98, whiff 24.1%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 1.100, K% 33.3% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 0.909, ISO 0.289 (385 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (+300) HR chance 34.4% | edge +11.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.220, OPS 0.912, ISO 0.255, TB/G 2.02
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.469
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 24/123 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0314, xFIP 4.22, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.361, xERA 5.69, whiff 19.0%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.236, K% 11.1% (9 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.909, ISO 0.278 (368 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+320) HR chance 34.1% | edge +12.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.191, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.194, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.477
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/89 (17%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0329, xFIP 4.20, K% 19.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.330, xERA 4.63, whiff 19.2%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.533, K% 33.3% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.903, ISO 0.215 (106 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance JJ Bleday — Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (+300) HR chance 34.1% | edge +11.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.215, OPS 0.778, ISO 0.225, TB/G 1.57
Statcast: barrel 10.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 19/93 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0285, xFIP 4.19, K% 19.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.320, xERA 4.32, whiff 20.9%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.051, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.234 (292 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.617, xwOBA 0.397 (25 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	+900	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	7:16 PM	+750	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Luke Keaschall	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+750	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	+500	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	+900	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate
Ernie Clement	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	+750	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Sam Antonacci	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	1:10 PM	+550	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	+750	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Kyle Tucker	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:15 PM	+500	1.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	3:08 PM	Braydon Fisher	Cam Schlittler	0.96	17.0%	47.1%	-	+0.0%
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	1:10 PM	Troy Melton	Anthony Kay	0.91	16.6%	46.4%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	Joey Cantillo	None	0.95	16.4%	46.1%	-	+0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	7:15 PM	Justin Wrobleski	Jacob Misiorowski	0.97	16.0%	45.3%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	4:06 PM	Logan Webb	Michael Lorenzen	0.82	15.8%	44.9%	-	+0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	7:11 PM	Connor Prielipp	Jesús Luzardo	0.95	15.7%	44.7%	-	+0.0%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	Reid Detmers	Randy Dobnak	0.98	15.7%	44.9%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	6:11 PM	Ian Seymour	Kyle Bradish	0.94	15.3%	44.0%	-	+0.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	7:16 PM	Jared Jones	Sonny Gray	0.96	15.0%	43.4%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:40 PM	J.T. Ginn	MacKenzie Gore	1.00	15.0%	43.5%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	7:11 PM	Hayden Wesneski	Emerson Hancock	1.00	14.7%	42.9%	-	+0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Grant Holmes	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.03	14.3%	42.1%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	4:11 PM	Sean Manaea	Brad Lord	0.93	14.1%	41.7%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:21 PM	Matthew Boyd	Michael McGreevy	1.05	13.5%	40.5%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:41 PM	Brady Singer	Ryan Gusto	1.15	12.1%	37.6%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	90.5	93.1	99.5	5	Curveball (44% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 38.5%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.216, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins	72.0	72.3	76.0	4	Sweeper (49% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 32.2%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.263, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	67.0	65.0	74.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.5%, put-away 24.3%, xwOBA 0.266, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox	62.6	67.3	60.0	4	Slider (38% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 30.3%, put-away 23.0%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals	61.4	63.5	62.5	5	Curveball (40% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.7%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	61.0	56.3	71.5	6	Changeup (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	59.6	61.2	62.0	7	Changeup (40% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres	58.5	64.9	53.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	56.6	58.5	57.0	6	Changeup (43% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 26.7%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	55.7	56.5	56.5	5	Slider (29% whiff, 51% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.302, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	53.9	58.9	53.0	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.8%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	52.5	47.9	60.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	52.0	51.7	53.5	4	Curveball (41% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	50.5	49.7	52.0	6	Sweeper (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.3%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies	49.9	50.2	49.5	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	49.2	42.7	58.0	5	Changeup (29% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 20.3%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	46.5	47.1	45.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds	46.3	45.2	47.5	7	Cutter (25% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks	45.5	51.0	40.5	6	Slider (39% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.334, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	44.6	46.8	41.5	5	Slider (41% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 16.1%, xwOBA 0.332, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	44.5	40.4	49.0	5	Slider (25% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.8%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins	44.3	50.2	36.5	5	Sweeper (40% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 16.9%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners	44.3	59.2	30.5	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.354, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	42.0	47.1	35.5	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 14.5%, xwOBA 0.344, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	41.0	39.7	42.5	7	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 19.2%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves	39.3	40.0	40.0	5	Changeup (26% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels	35.8	30.0	40.0	5	Sweeper (36% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 10.4%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	31.9	36.5	27.0	7	Curveball (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.0%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.361, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	31.4	34.8	21.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 18.4%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.372, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves	L	17.2%	5.7	6.0	5.9	96	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Texas Rangers	R	21.3%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	18.2%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	40.50	59.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Kyle Bradish	Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	21.3%	5.1	5.5	5.4	86	short	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	20.8%	6.0	5.7	5.8	101	deep	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	18.1%	6.6	5.7	5.9	111	deep	full	41.50	58.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Anthony Kay	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	L	18.7%	5.2	5.0	5.0	87	normal	full	35.50	64.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins	R	18.8%	5.9	5.2	5.3	99	normal	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres	L	26.7%	3.6	4.8	4.5	60	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	R	12.8%	3.9	4.6	4.5	65	short	full	21.50	78.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.9%	6.0	6.2	6.1	101	deep	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners	R	19.3%	6.1	6.2	5.9	102	deep	full	30.50	69.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	16.4%	5.2	5.3	5.5	87	normal	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals	L	29.6%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	21.1%	5.3	6.1	6.0	89	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds	R	21.1%	4.0	4.0	4.0	67	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	42.2%	5.8	6.0	6.0	97	normal	full	99.50	0.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies	L	26.7%	5.3	5.2	5.2	89	normal	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	L	24.1%	5.8	5.6	6.0	97	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	34.8%	5.5	5.9	6.0	92	normal	full	74.50	25.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins	L	30.1%	6.6	6.0	6.1	111	deep	full	76.00	24.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox	R	25.0%	4.8	4.5	4.6	80	short	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	R	18.9%	6.4	6.3	6.3	107	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	R	21.0%	4.5	5.5	5.3	76	short	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.7%	4.5	5.5	5.3	76	short	full	27.00	73.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	L	29.0%	5.0	4.5	4.7	84	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	L	26.8%	5.7	5.4	5.4	96	normal	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Braydon Fisher	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	R	19.6%	1.2	1.1	2.3	20	short	full	56.50	43.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	R	21.5%	1.7	2.5	4.4	28	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.7 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

15/15 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Ian Seymour	Ian Seymour Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	17.5	13.4	-4.1	23.3%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	4.7	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	21.1	3.6	20.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	20.2	2.7	15.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 15.5% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +2.71 <= 3 min
Emerson Hancock	Emerson Hancock Under	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	17.5	15.1	-2.5	14.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	76	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.45 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins	18.5	21.1	2.6	13.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 13.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.58 <= 3 min
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	19.3	1.8	10.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap +1.77 <= 3 min
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brady Singer	Brady Singer Under	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	16.2	-1.3	7.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.3	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
MacKenzie Gore	MacKenzie Gore Under	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	18.5	18.9	0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	20.5	20.6	0.1	0.5%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.3	107	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 10% min using selected line 20.5
Reid Detmers	Reid Detmers Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

92 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Nicky Lopez	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.54	1.35	0.59	0.59	2.41 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Elias Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.52	1.34	0.59	0.59	2.40 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.50	1.10	0.65	0.74	2.63 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.49	1.07	0.68	0.75	2.81 / Over	0.35	season_games=105,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.49	1.07	0.64	0.77	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.39	1.09	0.57	0.73	2.49 / Over	0.35	season_games=121,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.27	1.10	0.55	0.62	2.24 / Over	0.35	season_games=94,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.25	1.02	0.54	0.69	2.56 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.21	1.13	0.58	0.49	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=89,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alex Bregman	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.19	1.03	0.61	0.55	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ivan Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.19	1.19	0.50	0.50	2.13 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Kevin McGonigle	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.14	1.11	0.64	0.39	2.16 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Shohei Ohtani	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.13	1.01	0.58	0.53	1.85 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ezequiel Duran	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.11	0.93	0.54	0.64	1.90 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.08	1.05	0.47	0.56	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.08	0.93	0.57	0.58	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.07	0.87	0.65	0.55	1.93 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler Soderstrom	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.07	0.88	0.59	0.59	1.78 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dansby Swanson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.06	0.76	0.70	0.60	2.09 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.06	0.95	0.70	0.41	2.07 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.03	0.93	0.55	0.55	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.02	0.92	0.55	0.55	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nico Hoerner	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.02	1.07	0.45	0.50	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Burger	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.02	0.85	0.48	0.69	1.76 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.01	0.99	0.49	0.53	1.75 / Over	0.35	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes